I didn't include Boston as it is not record-eligible and I believe net-downhill. I was not aware of his 2:09 on the Marathon Project course.
Who cares if it's not record eligible? We're not talking about records here, and that doesn't make the course easier. He finished 20 seconds behind Kipchoge ffs.
Classic American and runner. “I’ve been in shape to run so and so time my entire career. I don’t understand why I never actually do it in a race but I am definitely in that shape and you should probably count that as my PR”. I am rooting for Fauble to finally run sub 2:08 though.
I gotta say this bugs me too. A lot of times fans do this. Like how many of you thought Rupp could easily get the ARs in the half and full? He just never tried to. Someone thinks this, since plenty of you have posted to that effect on various threads. Or how many Newbury Park guys could have broken Chapa's 10000 record? All or most of them according to whoever among you posted as much on the many NP threads.
You don't get there without first visualizing it. Good for Scott.
“I don’t think that me running in the 2:07s is a huge stretch of the imagination,” said Fauble, who has removed some of the hillier routes from his training under coach Joe Bosshard but has otherwise prepared similarly for Berlin as he would Boston or New York. “I think I’ve been in that kind of shape a bunch of times.”
He has been in that kind of shape "a bunch of times." Walter Mitty anyone?
You are dumb as hell. Just because he chokes in comp doesn't mean he doesn't have the ability. Plenty of MVPs in all sorts of professional sports choke in comps.
Failure just happens when you try to be great and push your limits. Something that a person like you, aiming for mediocrity, would never understand.
Classic American and runner. “I’ve been in shape to run so and so time my entire career. I don’t understand why I never actually do it in a race but I am definitely in that shape and you should probably count that as my PR”. I am rooting for Fauble to finally run sub 2:08 though.
I gotta say this bugs me too. A lot of times fans do this. Like how many of you thought Rupp could easily get the ARs in the half and full? He just never tried to. Someone thinks this, since plenty of you have posted to that effect on various threads. Or how many Newbury Park guys could have broken Chapa's 10000 record? All or most of them according to whoever among you posted as much on the many NP threads.
Unless you do it, it doesn't count.
I hate this too. It's a classic trope of this board - usually it's something like "Coke Hocker running 3:31 proves he's in 3:29 shape of he's in the right race." Right now, we're getting that Nuguse is in 3:27 "shape" because of some skanky conversion that he himself doesn't believe.
In Fauble's case, he's putting it out there and we can see what he can do in a perfect race. I believe he can run 2:07, mainly because it's just not that fast anymore. It's not 2015
Scott Fauble wants a 2:07? LOL. I want a billion dollars but I ain't getting a billion dollars. And he ain't getting a 2:07. His PR on a non-aided course is a 2:12:28. And now he wants to lower that 2:12 to a 2:07. Scott, keep dreaming!
Just correcting that his non-aided PR is his 2:09:42 at the Marathon Project. He has a 2:08 & 2 2:09s at Boston, which has placed him well & ahead of guys with faster PBs. I would also argue that Boston is not an easy course for being aided. He didn't run those times in conditions like Mutai had in 2011. His half PB is 1:01. Americans, like Fauble, run Chicago/NYC/Boston every year. 2:07 is not outrageous. I would argue that it really wouldn't show improved fitness. If he had rotated between Berlin & London every year since 2018, he would have popped off something that fast. He's ready for that time on a 50 degree day on a fast course.
Also if you think it is possible to simulate 80F by running outdoors in 10F with lots of clothes on your dreaming. Treadmill is the only chance
I'd ask Frank Shorter for advice. I bet he has another option.
Moving to florida ain't the draw it was in the 70s. i did find this interesting though
> AT the 16-mile mark of a very hot and humid marathon at the Pan American Games in Cali, Colombia, in 1971, I looked over at my good friend and teammate Kenny Moore and noticed something. “You’ve stopped sweating,” I said, trying to sound calm. Kenny looked at his dry forearms, and then his eyes got very big. Ten minutes later he was in an ambulance, incoherent with heat stroke.
> last Sunday’s Chicago Marathon was Kenny Moore’s Cali experience writ large: temperatures in the 80s, dozens hospitalized, one death and the race halted.
Of course it doesn't count. He didn't say his "real" PR was 2:06 because he's been in shape to it. He just said that he believes he's been in that kind of shape before, so therefore he doesn't think it's a stretch to aspire to a fast time in Berlin.
We all do that. Let's say I run 15:00 for 5K one season, and then the next season I do more mileage and faster workouts, feel great, but twist my ankle before I race. I might say, based on my workouts, that I'm confident I was in 14:45 shape, and set my goals for the subsequent season accordingly. It doesn't mean that I think my PR is 14:45, and it doesn't mean I'm right about my self-assessment (maybe I was racing my workouts too hard and would actually have run 15:10). But you have to have some sense of where your fitness is at any given time, and sharing that self-assessment publicly doesn't seem like a capital crime.
I'd ask Frank Shorter for advice. I bet he has another option.
Moving to florida ain't the draw it was in the 70s. i did find this interesting though
> AT the 16-mile mark of a very hot and humid marathon at the Pan American Games in Cali, Colombia, in 1971, I looked over at my good friend and teammate Kenny Moore and noticed something. “You’ve stopped sweating,” I said, trying to sound calm. Kenny looked at his dry forearms, and then his eyes got very big. Ten minutes later he was in an ambulance, incoherent with heat stroke.
> last Sunday’s Chicago Marathon was Kenny Moore’s Cali experience writ large: temperatures in the 80s, dozens hospitalized, one death and the race halted.
Moving to florida ain't the draw it was in the 70s. i did find this interesting though
> AT the 16-mile mark of a very hot and humid marathon at the Pan American Games in Cali, Colombia, in 1971, I looked over at my good friend and teammate Kenny Moore and noticed something. “You’ve stopped sweating,” I said, trying to sound calm. Kenny looked at his dry forearms, and then his eyes got very big. Ten minutes later he was in an ambulance, incoherent with heat stroke.
> last Sunday’s Chicago Marathon was Kenny Moore’s Cali experience writ large: temperatures in the 80s, dozens hospitalized, one death and the race halted.
I'm all about self-confidence and visualization (if ya'll saw how I ran and what I achieved you'd believe me), but for Scott to say this out loud is idiotic. Even taking the Boston time this is ridiculous. Looking at Boston realistically, calling it a 2:10 at best, Mr. Burrito thinks he's going to go over two minutes faster?
In a smoking hot race with debris falling backwards? Who does he think is going to pull him to 2:07? He's going to do it on his own? Okay, then. I wish him the best, as he has the potential to be one of the best US marathoners, but like someone else said, you are who we think you are.
1) Yes, Boston on a non-tailwind year is notoriously 1-2 minutes slower than Berlin. Great assessment.
2) He might be thinking the 2:08:00 pace group referenced in the article will pull him to 2:07:XX. But you're right, that's an outlandish idea.
I'm all about self-confidence and visualization (if ya'll saw how I ran and what I achieved you'd believe me), but for Scott to say this out loud is idiotic. Even taking the Boston time this is ridiculous. Looking at Boston realistically, calling it a 2:10 at best, Mr. Burrito thinks he's going to go over two minutes faster?
In a smoking hot race with debris falling backwards? Who does he think is going to pull him to 2:07? He's going to do it on his own? Okay, then. I wish him the best, as he has the potential to be one of the best US marathoners, but like someone else said, you are who we think you are.
In response to Fauble's comments on the timing of the event:
Historical data for Feb. 3 at noon in Orlando looks like an average of about 80 degrees F (which looks to be the maximum temp for the day). Dew point right at 60F which is basically the point at which humidity starts to be noticeable (at least from the perspective of someone that lives in the south). Atlanta was hilly but cold and Orlando will be flat but hot. I do not understand why there are complaints about this. It took me all of 5 minutes to research the conditions.
I looked at actual temps for the last 4 or 5 years which have been up to 82 and as low as 68 with dew points in the high 50s or low 60s which would feel somewhat humid to most people, so my statement of using averages was false. I should have said it is possible for it to get up to the mid 80s though something in the 70s is more likely. Though based on the averages you present, i have even less sympathy for Fauble's position.
And I still stand by what i said about heat training. People do this literally every year for races like Western States which is far hotter than Florida will be in February. Anyone that lives out west or up north and has a spring or early summer race in a warmer area of the country has encountered this to some degree.
My point was just to say that the conditions of the race affect everyone similarly and if you need it to be perfect weather to compete then you probably shouldnt be part of the olympic team. That's all.
You don't get there without first visualizing it. Good for Scott.
“I don’t think that me running in the 2:07s is a huge stretch of the imagination,” said Fauble, who has removed some of the hillier routes from his training under coach Joe Bosshard but has otherwise prepared similarly for Berlin as he would Boston or New York. “I think I’ve been in that kind of shape a bunch of times.”
He has been in that kind of shape "a bunch of times." Walter Mitty anyone?
When I see this kind of comment I always wonder how seriously people making them have run marathons themselves. It's such a long race that there is plenty of opportunity to be on pace for a really good performance but have something go wrong, wreck it, and leave you with a performance that's less than you'd have done had that thing not gone wrong. And if that happens the marathon is not like a 5,000 where you can run another one in a week or two. I think there are many, many, of us who ran marathons, got reasonably good results given who we are, but remember races where we were on our way to something much better until diarrhea came along or bad blisters did or we stepped into a pothole and would have a noticeably better lifetime PB if those things hadn't happened. Maybe we're wrong about that but the point is that there's more to getting to your ultimate marathon performance than getting very fit.
From what I've seen, Fauble has usually run marathons conservatively evidently looking to place in the money by picking off guys who went with the early leaders and couldn't maintain it. Having spent most of his career without a sponsor and needing prize and appearance money to survive this sort of strategy makes total sense. But it also eliminates much chance of putting the hammer down from the gun and hoping to maintain that effort all the way.
He's a guy who I think probably has faster times in him than he's shown so far. I don't know if that means his potential is 2:07 something or if it is whether he'll have an actual "dream" race where nothing goes wrong and derails him. You may want to discount his 2:08 because it was run on an aided course and that's worth mentioning. But I never found Boston an "easy" course and I've never found anyone else who's run it that does either so 2:07 for him doesn't seem like an overreach. Anyway, having a sponsor should allow him to be a bit more aggressive in Berlin than he's been in most of his races.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Added some stuff.
I looked at actual temps for the last 4 or 5 years which have been up to 82 and as low as 68 with dew points in the high 50s or low 60s which would feel somewhat humid to most people, so my statement of using averages was false. I should have said it is possible for it to get up to the mid 80s though something in the 70s is more likely. Though based on the averages you present, i have even less sympathy for Fauble's position.
And I still stand by what i said about heat training. People do this literally every year for races like Western States which is far hotter than Florida will be in February. Anyone that lives out west or up north and has a spring or early summer race in a warmer area of the country has encountered this to some degree.
My point was just to say that the conditions of the race affect everyone similarly and if you need it to be perfect weather to compete then you probably shouldnt be part of the olympic team. That's all.
Don't want to parse the argument but it seems Fauble is more upset with USATF not just copping that this is a ploy for better TV ratings. He seems to be fine with sucking it up in the hot weather if necessary, but doesn't like them pretending like it's best for the athletes or a non-issue. Lack of transparency from the governing body is something he has the right to call out.
As far as him running 2:07:xx, whether he will or won't do it that *should* be the goal.
