But that's not proof. What was his progression? Was he a teenage prodigy or someone who just came out of nowhere? And how further did he progress the record at that time? A huge amount?
There will never be proof of El Guerrouj cheating because even if he did the simple fact is, he got away with it.
As an 18 year old he ran 13.46 at the WJC in 92 and was third behind Geb and Ismael Kirui (this was the race before the infamous punch Kirui threw at Geb in the 1993 World Champs in Stuttgart) - so he was a pretty good junior but untapped over 1500m.Came onto the circuit as a miler in 94 and ran 3.33.53 over 1500m at age 20 and progressed nicely to 3.31 then 3.29 and 3.28.91 in 1997.
What happened in 1998 was well, given what we have seen over the last 25 years, quite seismic. It's one thing to drop your PR 2.91 seconds when you are a 3.40 runner or even a 3.33 runner. It's another to do it when you are a sub 3.29 runner and already the 2nd fastest in history (he went from 3.28.91 to 3.26.00).
In terms of how much he progressed the record it's not incredibly out of line - well, with respect to the 90's that is...
In 1974 when Bayi set the record in Christchurch NZ, he improved the mark by officially 0.9 seconds to 3.32.2 Coe then improved it by a tenth to 3.32.1. Ovett took 0.7 seconds and then Cram 1.1 seconds when he became the first to break 3.30. This was the largest drop seen in the record since Ryun broke Elliots record way back in 67.
But it's only when we get to the 90's do things really start heating up and especially so post 1992 (Barcelona) which coincidence or not, is when a certain endurance boosting drug starts become extremely prevalent in not just distance running but many endurance sports (cycling, XC skiing etc etc).
After running 3.28.86 in 92, Morceli smashes his WR by 1.49 seconds in 95 and El G rips a further 1.37 seconds off that in 98. Those are massive jumps and they are because you have to consider that this WR is now 25 years old and the only candidates within a second of the record were both implicated in doping use (Kiprop of course suspended and Lagat getting off on a technicality). Even with a mega-talent like Jakob and a massive performance aid in wavelight (that is almost impossible to quantify but which is really substantial), it seems unlikely this record is broken anytime soon. In fact out of nowhere, the 1500m is now the second longest record on the books after the 3000m - which now appears like it will be seriously threatened when Ingebrigtsen wants it within the next year or two. That matters because as we approach what now appears to be a genuine limit of human performance (a quarter century of really no challengers), the amounts by which this record should have been broken really should be much tighter and have far less dispersion.
In the 90's El G and Morceli alone combined for a 3.46 second drop in the record over 3 occasions in 5 years. Prior to that 6 athletes combined for a 2.70 second drop in the record over 8 occasions in 11 years. Honestly it doesn't really add up historically. Bottom line there is no hard proof but I think we would be remiss to not factor in the circumstantial and anecdotal evidence surrounding El Guerrouj and that era.
It's posts like this that makes this forum worth while. Thanks!
As an 18 year old he ran 13.46 at the WJC in 92 and was third behind Geb and Ismael Kirui (this was the race before the infamous punch Kirui threw at Geb in the 1993 World Champs in Stuttgart) -
Kirui was way in front in Stuttgart and didn't punch Geb.
Look at the progression in mile world records since 1954 when Bannister first broke 4 minutes. The record was broken about every 2-3 years, on average. Then El G sets the current record in 1999 which is 24 years ago! And we know now that in the 1990s, the dopers were WAY ahead of the testers.
The problem with this logic is very clear if you compare El Guerrouj with Herb Elliott (The latter being as dominant as the first, IMO, if one adjust for dirt tracks vs tartan, and also better shoes, pacing ++). -Elliott’s 3.35.6 lasted only 7 years as a WR (beaten by Ryun’s 3.33.1 in 1967, but IMO one lose more than 2.5 sec dirt vs tartan + adjustment for shoes ++ -even Coe and Ovett’s WR’s seem inferior to Elliott’s). So therefore (according to your logic) Elliott should be as obvious a doper as your “proof” against El Guerrouj, but I haven’t yet seen anybody accuse the former…
There will never be proof of El Guerrouj cheating because even if he did the simple fact is, he got away with it.
As an 18 year old he ran 13.46 at the WJC in 92 and was third behind Geb and Ismael Kirui (this was the race before the infamous punch Kirui threw at Geb in the 1993 World Champs in Stuttgart) - so he was a pretty good junior but untapped over 1500m.Came onto the circuit as a miler in 94 and ran 3.33.53 over 1500m at age 20 and progressed nicely to 3.31 then 3.29 and 3.28.91 in 1997.
What happened in 1998 was well, given what we have seen over the last 25 years, quite seismic. It's one thing to drop your PR 2.91 seconds when you are a 3.40 runner or even a 3.33 runner. It's another to do it when you are a sub 3.29 runner and already the 2nd fastest in history (he went from 3.28.91 to 3.26.00).
In terms of how much he progressed the record it's not incredibly out of line - well, with respect to the 90's that is...
In 1974 when Bayi set the record in Christchurch NZ, he improved the mark by officially 0.9 seconds to 3.32.2 Coe then improved it by a tenth to 3.32.1. Ovett took 0.7 seconds and then Cram 1.1 seconds when he became the first to break 3.30. This was the largest drop seen in the record since Ryun broke Elliots record way back in 67.
But it's only when we get to the 90's do things really start heating up and especially so post 1992 (Barcelona) which coincidence or not, is when a certain endurance boosting drug starts become extremely prevalent in not just distance running but many endurance sports (cycling, XC skiing etc etc).
After running 3.28.86 in 92, Morceli smashes his WR by 1.49 seconds in 95 and El G rips a further 1.37 seconds off that in 98. Those are massive jumps and they are because you have to consider that this WR is now 25 years old and the only candidates within a second of the record were both implicated in doping use (Kiprop of course suspended and Lagat getting off on a technicality). Even with a mega-talent like Jakob and a massive performance aid in wavelight (that is almost impossible to quantify but which is really substantial), it seems unlikely this record is broken anytime soon. In fact out of nowhere, the 1500m is now the second longest record on the books after the 3000m - which now appears like it will be seriously threatened when Ingebrigtsen wants it within the next year or two. That matters because as we approach what now appears to be a genuine limit of human performance (a quarter century of really no challengers), the amounts by which this record should have been broken really should be much tighter and have far less dispersion.
In the 90's El G and Morceli alone combined for a 3.46 second drop in the record over 3 occasions in 5 years. Prior to that 6 athletes combined for a 2.70 second drop in the record over 8 occasions in 11 years. Honestly it doesn't really add up historically. Bottom line there is no hard proof but I think we would be remiss to not factor in the circumstantial and anecdotal evidence surrounding El Guerrouj and that era.
It's posts like this that makes this forum worth while. Thanks!
Which world record are you talking about? If you mean the 1500m world record, the fact that he's once again going off-distance proves that in his own opinion 3:26.00 is out of reach.
You can vote that it hurts, but you can't vote it wrong. Next year? Nope, that's olympics, same old thing, peak for rounds. Won't be chasing a record.
Don´t you have any self critique?
You have been wrong so many times about Jakob but you continue churning out dubious statements as if you were the oracle of these pages and not a biased fool.
I don't understand distance runners. How do you know this? Someone has to have set the WR, if El G did not exist would the next guy on the list be called a doper? What was the evidence? Huge progression spike? Suspect coach? Came from an Islamic country? Enquire-ing minds want to know.
True, there is no proof. I do not have anything solid. I just agreed with the other poster that ElG was probably a EPO user. Same for Ngeny and Lagat (my opinion).
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