Jakob "can't simply hold the the pace of the 5k guys this year". Why can't he? Do you have the slightest indication that he can't? If you answer provide some empirical evidence.
It's called sport. Take a 12'48" runner who runs 1500m batteries + final two days before the 5k final and let him compete with a bunch of 12'35"-12'40" guys that only runs that event (some of them) while some others run 10k seven days before. Times, recovery and team work are everything in athletics.
Your first assumtion is that he is a 12:48-runner. Even in Florence two years ago, he was 2 sec behind at 3000 and threw in a good well under 60 400. There are indications that he even was stronger then. Your second assumption is that he will not have enough recovery-time. As if you know anything about Jakobs need for recovery. But may be you know? And then your third assumption: team work. There are some serious flows in your assumptioms. Just to put it mildly.
IMO, the problem with running a 12:40 flat pace is that whoever will be in the front pushing that pace is unlikely to win. So basically sacrificing himself. No one wants to do that in a WC final.
And the problem with running over 12:50, is that Jakob will likely squeeze them all in the last k.
IMO, there's a fine line where they should run around 12:45-12:50 for the first 3k, and then push the last 2k at 12:40 pace, preventing Jakob to completely control the last k, while not burning themselves out for the last 400.
+1 and tbh I think Aregawi is most likely to do it, with how he's stretched out the 5's and 10's he's done this year dropping in 60's and 59's at strange points but holding it
Aregawi is a nightmare to race against. Whether it's a WR attempt (fast time) or a slower championship race. He's fearless and isn't afraid to take the pace at anytime. He will cover any pace then drop the hammer when he's ready and make an honest run for home. Can he outrun JI? That's the big question. The longer he waits the more difficult it will be. If the 5k "only" boys keep a hot pace from the start and Aregawi makes a big move with 4-6 laps to go JI may find himself in trouble. If the early pace is slower than 13:00 with 4-6 to go JI will sit and then put the screws to them over the final 2-3 laps.
Seriously, if Jakob loses I think Aregawi will play a major role, either sustaining himself or forcing Jakob's hand earlier than he wants. I don't see the others willing to risk.
One tactic and only one race tactic can prevail against J Ingebrigtsen in 5000m:
J I has never raced sub-12:50 in an international championship format 5000m. No need for attempts to elbow/box-in, just nice and even 62 second laps through 10 laps followed by 600m sub-1:28.5 should be all it takes to defeat him, 5000m.
+1 and tbh I think Aregawi is most likely to do it, with how he's stretched out the 5's and 10's he's done this year dropping in 60's and 59's at strange points but holding it
Aregawi is a nightmare to race against. Whether it's a WR attempt (fast time) or a slower championship race. He's fearless and isn't afraid to take the pace at anytime. He will cover any pace then drop the hammer when he's ready and make an honest run for home. Can he outrun JI? That's the big question. The longer he waits the more difficult it will be. If the 5k "only" boys keep a hot pace from the start and Aregawi makes a big move with 4-6 laps to go JI may find himself in trouble. If the early pace is slower than 13:00 with 4-6 to go JI will sit and then put the screws to them over the final 2-3 laps.
Winner: Jakob- 12:53
Long and hard season for Aregawi already especially for how hard ETH trials are just to make the team and then hold onto that fitness for 2 more months.
That 10k is going to be savage with Cheptegei and Barega
I dont see him being a factor especially after the 10k in his legs
Kejelcha or Gebrewit much more likely to medal in the 5
Are you typing as an analyst, a bettor or a fan? Seven-forty-five 3000m will bother J Ingebrigtsen more than 8-something through 3000m at last year's W.C. The field simply needs the race to be won with a reasonable final 600m. The field doesn't want J Ingebrigtsen to be fresh enough to race 83.xx for final 600m. As long as no one is fresh enough for sub-84.5 final 600m, J I can be defeated. I say even 62 laps will do it.
One tactic and only one race tactic can prevail against J Ingebrigtsen in 5000m:
J I has never raced sub-12:50 in an international championship format 5000m. No need for attempts to elbow/box-in, just nice and even 62 second laps through 10 laps followed by 600m sub-1:28.5 should be all it takes to defeat him, 5000m.
No one in history has ever done this, but yeah, that’s all it should take.
Are you typing as an analyst, a bettor or a fan? Seven-forty-five 3000m will bother J Ingebrigtsen more than 8-something through 3000m at last year's W.C. The field simply needs the race to be won with a reasonable final 600m. The field doesn't want J Ingebrigtsen to be fresh enough to race 83.xx for final 600m. As long as no one is fresh enough for sub-84.5 final 600m, J I can be defeated. I say even 62 laps will do it.
One tactic and only one race tactic can prevail against J Ingebrigtsen in 5000m:
J I has never raced sub-12:50 in an international championship format 5000m. No need for attempts to elbow/box-in, just nice and even 62 second laps through 10 laps followed by 600m sub-1:28.5 should be all it takes to defeat him, 5000m.
No one in history has ever done this, but yeah, that’s all it should take.
Brilliant.
Exactly thats your first order problem -- 4k in 10:20 when the record race went through in 10:28
IMO, the problem with running a 12:40 flat pace is that whoever will be in the front pushing that pace is unlikely to win. So basically sacrificing himself. No one wants to do that in a WC final.
And the problem with running over 12:50, is that Jakob will likely squeeze them all in the last k.
IMO, there's a fine line where they should run around 12:45-12:50 for the first 3k, and then push the last 2k at 12:40 pace, preventing Jakob to completely control the last k, while not burning themselves out for the last 400.
Given JI's 7:24 WR two mile, pretty sure he would not be phased running a 12:40 pace
That’s the type of performance it will take to (maybe) beat Ingebrigtsen. 53.5 last lap/2:24.3 last K in a 12:52 race and someone beats Jakob by a stride.
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