I’m not of those who laugh out loud of your estimates here, because you have your reasons, and we need somebody with some daring assumptions (so we can laugh if / when reality’s is proven you wrong), and people giving probabilities in per cents (regardless of their balanced and modest approach) is the real laughable thing cause per cents estimates here always hides this fact: There’s too much uncertainty and lack of information to have an informed opinion! (And people are somewhat bad at seeking information, and even if they do it often can’t be found, and the problem is that we should stress uncertainty instead of so lightly giving per cents..). And this uncertainty is a big part of what makes this sport interesting -IMO!
I myself think Jakob is the favourite in both the 1500 and the 5000m… (But this is based on assumptions I cannot know for sure are right: That he isn’t injured, sick, overtrained / miscalculated his peak, and so on.)
Your 98% for the 1500m seems to high (but I get it that you try to make a point here with so high an estimate). -This event is the one with the highest speed without any lane separation at all (meaning a lot of things can go wrong). But with his general strategy and form Jakob surely is the clear favourite (Silesia showed that he pretty much can solo a 3.27.14 unhindered in the first bend) - IMO it’s likely flawed to say 98% or 75%; better to say “favourite” or “clear favourite”…
So to your 0.3% (5000m): Fine by me! Why not be so sure if you think your arguments are so strong!
But here’s my take: I think Jakob is in sub 12.40 shape, together with 2 or 3 of his opponents. But I think the former is a few (at least 2-3) seconds better than the others. And I base this on his 5000m merits, his 2 mile pr, and not the least his training that seems as well suited for the 5000m as for 1500 / 3000m. And he’s also got this reserve (on a day with bad 5000m day form): He can outrun the others on the home stretch / last lap(s) based on his 1500m speed…
What might support / not support your “Jakob being smashed in the 5000m”:
1. Fatigue after running three rounds in the 1500m. -Not likely, since this didn’t happen in Eugene, but you never know; humans are humans…
2. Someone in the field suddenly shows better capacity than Jakob -again not likely, but given the strong field this year one again doesn’t know…
3. Jakob can lose because of his own strategy / dream: He’s not in the race to (just) win (at all cost) -it matters a lot to him how he wins (in a honest way); meaning he won’t win as a 1500m runner, but as a 5000m runner -reserving a 100m burst win to a bad day..! But given the strong field someone can take his back the last couple of laps and “kill him” based on the advantage… In a few days we will know…!
I can't see Jakob running a 12.40 (and not even a 12.45) 5.000m after 1500m batteries and a final that will be run only 3 days before the 5k final. There are very strong and 5k focused guys this year.
This post was edited 52 seconds after it was posted.
Probaly 85% chance he wins the 1500, 50% he wins the 5000. So I'll say 42% he wins both. So slightly more likely he does not win one. And technically that's a 7% chance he doesn't win either of them.