Who would win in an all-star 1500m final between the last 12 Olympic champions in their primes?

I think Jakob is getting too much credit here. Switch out the shoes and wavelights alone and we're looking at a 3:28-29 guy. Morceli takes this race because he's not going to lead at all until the end, while El G tries to run the kick out of everyone. He'll fade to 2nd with a hard charging and underrated 1984 Seb Coe kicking down Jakob, who tried to go with the El G pace, but couldn't find a kick.

1. Morceli 3:28.00
2. El G 3:28.50
3. Seb Coe 3:29.00

All wearing the best spikes in 2023.

Also, I did not know Morceli had an older brother who helped pace him to the 1500 WR.

Does Seb Coe tackling the North Africans result in a DQ for the other Seb Coe?

younger brother

This is a fun topic. I see the tiers something like this:

Tier 1: Hicham El Guerrouj, Noureddine Morceli, '84 Sebastian Coe

Tier 2: Noah Ngeny, Asbel Kiprop (assuming juiced as he was), Jakob Ingebrigtsen

Tier 3: Taoufik Mahkloufi, Fermin Cacho

Tier 4: Matt Centrowitz, John Walker, Peter Rono

Hicham El Guerrouj is the best male 1500 runner, and arguably the best male distance runner, to ever live (and probably dope, but I am going to ignore that for the fun of it). But he is so much better than anyone else (7-1 over 1500/mile vs. Morceli, 21-1 vs. Ngeny) that I think the others are too smart to dare let him lead. I think that puts Morceli, '84 Coe, and Ngeny in the hunt. The only person I could see trying to lead aside from El G would be Jakob, knowing he's gonna get massacred that last 600 or so if he doesn't.

As much as I dislike Coevett I think we're disregarding Coe. He just didn't really lose big 1500 races that often, and 1:41.73 is no joke. I think there's a scenario where Hicham lets it dawdle (3:32 or slower race) and Coe wins it all. If he doesn't, I think Ngeny just bides his time between El G, Jakob, and others and wins like he did in Sydney. Remember, by almost all metrics, 2000 was El G's prime, and he got beat. He was in better overall shape that year than in 2004.

Final answer: The field starts bunched up as El G hopes and prays that someone will start pouring in some pace. They do not. Asbel is loping around in last place. They go through 400 in 62.1 and with that pace continuing, through 600 at 1:32.9, El G takes over at 600 and rachets it down -- they go through 800 in 2:00.9. He continues to lead and the pack starts to thin. Jakob leads an odd chase pack about 5-10m off the lead and so does all of his own leading despite being about a second back. Asbel sprints up to El G's shoulder at 1000, which they pass in 2:27.8, but then the sudden pace injection gets to him and he falls back into the pack. El G goes through 1200 in 2:54.7 (53.8 3rd 400), with Morceli just behind him. Ngeny, then '84 Coe. Makhloufi and Cacho makes a move to latch on to them but they gave a bit too much room.

El G hangs onto the inside and distances from Morceli over the next 200, but Ngeny swings around him and '84 Coe follows him around the bend. They pass Morceli. El G pours it all into the final 300 and runs a 39.2 final 300 for a 3:33.9 and blazing final 1000, but Coe inches by him just before the line in 3:33.7. Ngeny lets up before the line when he know she can't catch either of them and is almost caught by Morceli. Asbel yo-yos his way to 7th, not able to catch Jakob in the straight, who gets kicked past by Makh daddy.

1. '84 Sebastian Coe, 3:33.7

2. Hicham El Guerrouj, 3:33.9

3. Noah Ngeny, 3:34.4

4. Noureddine Morceli, 3:34.5

5. Taofik Makhloufi, 3:34.9

6. Jakob Ingebrigtsen, 3:35.0

7. Asbel Kiprop, 3:35.3

8. Fermin Cacho, 3:36.1

Comical those blowing off the 1:41:73/3:29:77 guy with two 1500 meter golds to his name, especially when you consider shoe/track changes.

I think Ngeny is the real answer the more you think about it. Let's face it, if he hadn't gotten in that accident, he would likely have beaten El G again in 2004. He had a kick on the level of Coe, Cacho, and Centrowitz, while being able to hang with El G, Morceli, Kiprop and Ingebrigtsen in a fast race. The only scenarios where he loses are either Ingebrigtsen pacemaking through 1200 in 2:45-2:46 (a pace only Hicham can follow) or something like 2016 (where it's really anyone's game, although obviously Centrowitz triumphed over Makhloufi and Kiprop on that day). If it's anything from 2:48-3:00 through 1200, I take Ngeny any day.

Not if you’re using Centros best day as his Olympic gold day.

If the race is super fast, sure he MIGHT get last. But if it’s even remotely

tactical central closing in 50 at least would get him third and potentially even win depending on how slow the race was.,

I give EL G, Nugeny and Seb Coe top 3 personally and then Jakob in 4th.

My reason for discounting Coe is that I'm not sure he could handle a fast race against guys who are plainly better than him. The difference in spikes and track between the 80s and 90s is not much and guys like Morceli, El G, and Ngeny would all be matching up better than Seb. I think these factors would be a death sentence for Walker too because he may think he can hang on but after he's bouncing around in the pack and sees they passed 800 in 1:51, the usually unwavering confidence starts to crash down to earth. This race would be a totally unique test for all involved because none of them would've faced so much competition for positioning and felt so many guys hanging around them as they try to burn them off. Whoever can relax the most and trust their prime fitness would probably win.

Also with regard to the difference in spikes/tracks in general I think it is a little overstated. These runners are the most efficient of their era and were supremely adapted to the old Eldorets, Zoom Ds, and Victories. There may be some responders but I'd guess that the fastest would have little to gain from Dragonflys.

Gotta be El G by a decent amount.

I clicked on this thread thinking I would pick Ngeny, but looking into it I don't think I can defend that.

He raced El G 4 times after Sydney but before the accident and was 0-4. I think Sydney was a fluke. The mile WR race would also suggest Sydney was a fluke.

I think 84' Coe beats El G over the last 20 meters if the temp. is under 70 degrees. I don't think the race would be a time trial, but I bet it wouldn't be an exclusively tactical affair, 3:33.81. However, I think ultimately 80' and 84' Coe would be disqualified due to the conflict of interest of IOC president 23' Lord Coe.

Pace dawdles for the first 800m because no one wants to lead--probably 1'56"-1'57". El Guerrouj starts pressing with 700m left and strings the field out a bit. Probably a 56" for that lap. Not many guys are dropped, but positioning has changed. With 300m to go, Makh Daddy attempts to do what he did in London and the field mostly is left in shambles. Then with 120m to go, Sebastian starts blasting and takes the lead in the final 30m. As far as I know (which ain't a lot), he's the only man to win the event 2x so I am putting my money on him.

Also, Centro would probably ride the rail for the first 1300m then find a way to slide in for a medal because all of the other guys were tying up from trying to match El G and Makh Daddy's moves.

It is interesting to think about how fast the all-time greats would finish the final 400 after going through 1100 in 3 flat. Given that Coe had the best foot speed, he'd probably close in 49.6 for the win.

My answer it that it would be very random.

Having all athletes in such a short range of level is very different from the usual scenario where there is one-two guys clearly above others. Here it would be a big mess from the start with several runners fighting for desired position in the pack. You would see them agressively elbowing their way for leading or 2nd position as they are all used to race in this position and pretty much all think they are the best. Some would fall already at this point. Some would be disqualified.

The last 100 could also be messy.

"In their prime" translates to when they were most successful, ie medals won. Time is irrelevant, since most Olympic/WC 1500m races are tactical affairs.

No way a race with 12 sub 3:30 guys runs as slow as the 2016 Olympics

This race probably has a variety of outcomes if you run it 10 times but I think there is one that is most likely. Jakob probably takes the early lead just entering the home straight after a mad dash for position in the first 200. I think El G slots in behind him with Morceli and Ngeny running in 3rd and 4th. I think that there is a bunch of jostling for position behind those 4 over the next 2 laps but eventually Coe makes it into 5th at the bell. Ultimately El G blows by Jakob with 200 to go and holds on to win. Ngeny is the best of the rest and Coe kicks for 3rd. Morceli and Makhloufi pass Jakob in the last 30m for 4th and 5th. Jakob finishes 6th. Cacho uses a brilliant last lap to move from 10th to 7th just ahead of Kiprop who managed to bounce from 6th at 400 meters to last at 1100 and then kick for 8th. Centro out leans John Walker in the battle for 9th and 10th but Walker gets the consolation prize of a massive lifetime best. Peter Rono ends up last.