Over under wrote:
I’d say the over under is probably 4.5
Top 20 is a legit run at NXR. Heemeyer and a healthy Athay are most likely, followed by Ringert and Cervi Skinner.
The next group would need a really good performance at NXR to crack Top 20 (Boise duo, Lucas, May, Johnston, Blaser, Stadtlander, Stockett, etc.)
How about Idaho girls Top 20 at NXR?
Roberts, Bruce, Kozuleh, ????
Sorry- that wasn't clear. I think 4 guys have really good shots, and then you have a grouping really of 5 or 6 guys that any one of them could have a great day.
Beyond that, there's another grouping of guys that makes it incredibly deep. That grouping is the Blaser/Stadtlander/Burdick/Goss/Ihmels/McComber/Jensen/King/Cervi-Skinner.
Just to point out the depth, there will be at least 6 guys with a either a sub 4:25 or 9:30 something PR (or equivalent) that aren't top 10 at the 5A State Meet. A guy like Blaser or Stadtlander could be as high as 5th or so or as low as 15th without having even that bad of a day. There are 31 returning guys with outright or equivalent 4:30 or 10:00 or faster PRs in 5A alone. If you are between 4:25 and 4:30 and between 9:45-10:00, you could have an okay day and easily finish between 15th and 30th. That's crazy.
That's part of why I think CDA has to be the heavy favorite going into the season. Rocky could easily have 2 top 5 guys and then get 25th, 28th, and 30th. Boise could do basically the same. CDA at least has the track PRs to get 3 or 4 guys in the top 12 and have their 5th in the 20s. That's not to say that Rocky, Boise or Centennial couldn't make the jump and win it if CDA doesn't have a good summer or gets the injury bug. Rocky has the 2 low sticks and a lot of depth in the 4:30/10:00 range, Boise has 2 not quite as low sticks and is better at 3 and 4 but lacks real depth, and Centennial certainly has the track PRs between 4:15 and 4:23 guys and 3 guys at 9:54-9:55.