will a woman ever break the 4 minute mile?

to be fair, it's not a record thats chased often.

- Tsegay (blew up massively, but) had a great run during indoors. finished in 4:16, but went out in 61.1 & 2:07. Was interesting to at least someone try that kind of pace from the gun.
- I think someone mentions it later in the thread, but Faith ran a 3:50 last year (which if memory serves correct looked like a 3:48/49 but the clock kept going), and I think could definitely improve on her 2:29/1000m from 2020
- Sifan hasnt had a crack since running 3:53 & 4:14 in summer 2021. Not a million miles away, but her focus has since obviously been elsewhere

Head to head Tsegay vs Faith, I think at any given race Diamond League or World Champs, you've got the potential for a massive WR if they're in 3:50 shape, at that point it's all about the $$$ to get them there etc

As for the sub4, I asked Sifan Hassan's Coach Tim Rowberry about this [will a woman ever run sub 4 in our lifetime?] after Hassan's 4:14, he said:

"I want to say yes. If we see more than one athlete break Dibaba's record then it might be closer than we think.. still absolutely insane and still having mixed feelings about pacing lights of [if] that would be involved."

"*Dibaba's 1500 record or in other words going sub-3:50"

I think it may take a while, but eventually a genetic female will come along that is chemically close to a male - there seems to be a wide spectrum here - and that has a great capacity for training and distance running.

Will a boy ever be born who can swim as fast as a shark?

Never say never, but to run sub-4 a runner needs around 1:50 800 speed and there's no woman capable of that right now even among 800 specialists.

Hasn’t Evelyn Smulders already run sub four?

Yes, They will 😉

No, but a Womxn will!

Absolutely. It may be someone assigned male at birth but a woman will run sub 4.

100% chance. Like a guy running sub 3:40

On average the statistical difference between men and women is 12 percent in running performance.

Even athletes who completely transition follow that statistic almost exactly

So yes it is possible on paper but no it will not be an athlete who has transitioned like the bigots are foaming at the mouth about because that athlete would have to be 3:30 previously.

Alternately we are up to what now, 6% shoes? So at some point 8% or by the end of the decade 10% ?

It would take a guy, before hormone treatments, that could run sub-3:40. I’m thinking he would wait to transgender until after retiring from competitive running.

Ignoring the weird transgender comments but I don't think the women's 800 is in the ballpark yet so don't see a sub-4 happening any time soon. Need to see some low-1:50s and right now sub-2 is still a strong mark and 1:55-1:57 (sometimes slower) shape gets you a world title/medal.

for sure, when a 'trans' women runs it , the record will surely fall, probably this year

The short answer is yes.

Racing has changed a lot. More and more racing is done tactically and less to do with time. I think we will likely see athletes like Jakob I that can probably run 12:35 like Chep, might not ever actually try or need to do it. Right now my opinion is a sub-4 for a female is still fairly far away anyways.

An 8-9s improvement (when a woman runs 3:42, they are going to make efforts to break 4) is a lot but it is also at the edge of what seems doable given another 30-50 years. Some better shoes, better tracks, and more effective drugs. Heck put those 90s Chinese runners in superheroes and we would be half way there....

You tell us sub-4 woman mile is unlikely in near future. Well, I’m old enough to remember a new mens world record in the 5000m some decades ago -13,12 min. -Nothing unexpected with that. Same to be said about Henry Rono (13,06) and Morcroft and Aouita (13 flat) ++…
But then Geb entered the scene, and quite suddenly the world record was 12,39. Who could have seen that coming only a few years pre Geb..?

So I don’t know what will happen in womens mile, or in any event at all… And who could have predicted Jakob Ingebrigtsen from little Norway (being a mediocre talent according to himself)? But it’s ofcourse fun to spekulate, and I will do that more than any later.

You misspelled EPO as Geb.... It took like 25 years to drop from those 13:16 type time to 12:58. And then a decade to hit 12:37. And then we have stalled for 20 years despite a shoe revolution.

I am not sure there is another 8-9s in either the men's/woman's record without some shoe/drug breakthrough. That's a lot of time.

We can’t be sure of anything. People named may have been on Epo, or not at all. -But we can only spekulate.. But what is the point to spekulate without giving any arguments for our beliefs..? Geb on Epo? Why? Was he less talentet than Jakob I? Or do you think the norwegian is on Epo too (full trottle)? -How do he come around the ekstensiv testing i Norway?

My point is we can’t predict the jump in w-recs or prs. For it wasn’t only Geb in the 5000, or 10000, or a bunch in half or full marathon; it was also Michael Johnson in the 200m ( who would have thought he could outrun Carl Lewis’ times to that degree?), and suddently Bolt, etc, etc.. And then we’ve got Warholm with his lousy prs in the 100 and 200m outrunning everybody in the first leg of a 400mh… And before Olympic Games 2021 Jakob I said he never would achive 1,44 in the 800m - now he says the sky is the limit also in that distance..

I don’t know what to think (a lot of Let’srunners are so sure of everything -and that’s hillerious!) -Canova says you can’t be excellent both at 1500 and 5000m in the same season (but again look to Jakob).. So I feel athletics is too complicatet (like art, life, an so on ) to fully understand or predict. That goes for who dopes, and how dope works, or what training is the best, and what kind of talent is the best (we were told Bolt was too tall..), and what kind of coach will get you to the top (Gjert Ingebrigtsen was illiterate in athletics when he startet his mission with his sons).

So all in all: I don’t know anything for the future regarding womens mile… Or anything else. Do you!?