I agree that a record is not a given, but a sub 2:03 would not surprise me if the conditions are good. I ran Boston in 2011 and despite all of the of the "hurricane wind" conditions I keep hearing about, it didn't really feel all that windy to me. Perhaps some of the wind readings said there was a 20 mph tail wind at times, but on the ground (protected by trees/buildings) I would have guessed maybe an 8-9 mph tailwind (matching my pace). Regardless, it will be fun to watch this year. Doubt the great Kipchoge with caution!
I ran Boston 2011 as well. I ran faster 2 minutes faster at CIM about 15 months prior. I also ran within a minute of my 2011 time in Boston 2014. But there were a lot of personal bests in the elite field.
Barring a similar tailwind, I’d bet the over on 2:03 for Kipchoge in a heartbeat, maybe even the over on 2:04.
This post was edited 43 seconds after it was posted.
Would y’all rather have the 2011 Adidas AdiZero Adios shoe & a tailwind OR the greatest marathoner of all time in modern super shoe technology that trains at 7,000ft on a hilly course they’ve named Boston?! Let’s stop romanticizing the past. This is silly. No one is saying the CR is easy but if Kipchoge says he’s targeting it, is anyone really questioning if he has an actual shot at it? If not CJ or Daniel Do Nascimento, someone nobody is talking about will take it out hot.
Yeah, if Kipchoge says he's going for it, he at least knows how to make happen. Boston is a fast course if you run it correctly. CJ Albertson will keep him company for the first 10. Pacers can't even keep up with him, so it's not as if he needs them.
Bikila & Wolde in 1963 was just as big as Kipchoge, although admittedly running was much more of a fringe sport than it is now. Worth noting conditions were not good and in Newton they hit some weird cold fog and both of them bonked hard after leading the race by multiple minutes (not saying that will happen this year).
It is pretty much given that Kipchoge would break the Boston course record if the weather isn't like 2018. He doesn't need a big tailwind, he consistently run 2:01, 2:02.
He's the GOAT & has run fast on pancake flat courses, with pacers, on good weather days. Boston is a different animal. Before we make any predictions, we need to see the weather. If the weather is off a little then the course record might be out of reach. This is a non rabbited race. Does anybody go with him if he takes off from the gun? Is he gonna solo a CR? Mutai had a huge pack that went through halfway in ~1:02-flat. Then he had Mosop with him to the finish line. It's very hard to negative split at Boston. A huge pack & tailwind helped in 2011. It's hard to negative split at Boston, unless the front half is super slow.
What I will say is that I wouldn't be surprised if some of Kipchoge's teammates help with the pacing up front if the weather looks good. A CR attempt will more/less be planned even if there aren't official pacers.
I listened to his most recent interview carefully. I think his main objective is just to win.I think the course record and time are just secondary objectives because in his interview he said that his initial aim was to get course records in half of the 6 marathons and he already has achieved that.I reckon the talk about going for course record is just playing mind games on his opponents to gauge their reactions and maybe get feedback from them to inform his strategy on the race day.
Yeah, you are a breath of fresh air to come in and post with facts, it truly makes my day when you post with the accurate information that you always provide. Bless you brother, you are a really nice guy!
At this time still quite away from race day, looks like temp could be warm on race day.
if that’s the case, still going with Kipchoge. Remember sweltering Rio where Kipchoge looked totally comfortable in high humidity and heat. I don’t think he’ll get CR unless weather is cool.
He's not unbeatable and he's got no pacers on the toughest course he has ever raced. It's not a given that he's going to win and it's certainly not a given that the CR will be broken. Ear blockage? Give me a break. He had a rough day and he lost, no shame in that and you never know when it's going to happen.
Does Kipchoge break the course record in Boston? I see click bait articles saying thats what he wants but there is no chance in my opinion. If he does it without crazy tailwind like 2011 it would be the greatest all time distance running performance. Agree or disagree?
Whatever happens it'll be interesting to see how he handles the downhills after going out on course record pace.
Imagine a strong finisher running down the best marathoner who ever lived?
Better yet- imagine him running 1:59 and it can't count as a record, yet again?
That would be cool and maybe jump start WA into making exceptions to that rule- NYC, Boston SHOULD count for records.
What runn said. I read that Kipchoge practiced for the uphill portion. I haven't read that he has practiced for the (very humbling) downhill portion. Would never count out or underestimate Kipchoge, though.
He's not unbeatable and he's got no pacers on the toughest course he has ever raced. It's not a given that he's going to win and it's certainly not a given that the CR will be broken. Ear blockage? Give me a break. He had a rough day and he lost, no shame in that and you never know when it's going to happen.
No, he’s not unbeatable, but he’s pretty damn close up until now. To give him less than an 80-90% chance of winning against the field this Boston is to deny history.
What runn said. I read that Kipchoge practiced for the uphill portion. I haven't read that he has practiced for the (very humbling) downhill portion. Would never count out or underestimate Kipchoge, though.
I'm thinking there's a pretty good chance he also ran down the hills he practiced running up lol
I believe that Mutui thanked Ryan Hall for the awesome rabbiting job Hall did that year. Otherwise Mutui wouldn't have gone out that fast. I think that Kipchoge will run for the win at Boston, like he did at both Olympics, and there's no reason to go out at CR pace, even if some looney does goes out that fast. If Kipchoge goes for the win, he will wait until the hills and then crush everybody. If there's a crazy tailwind, maybe he would go for it. Otherwise, no.
All the pessimists, naysayers and prophets of doom with regards to Kipchoge dismantling the course record of Boston will be ashamed on that day. 🇰🇪🇰🇪🇰🇪🇰🇪
i dont know if he's going to break the record or not but i would love to analyze the brains of all you "eliud kipchoge is going to bomb because he isnt prepared for running downhill" people
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