Comeback of Gwen Jorgensen - the "best triathlete in history" - has begun. 3rd in N. Zealand. What does this mean for Paris?

jamie t wrote:

To answer your first question, no, she isn't the greatest triathlete ever. She isn't even top 2 in short course. Duffy and Spirig both match her Olympic gold but both have done more than Gwen outside of the gold. Her two year peak was the best two year stretch ever but that was far too short. Duffy has beaten her largest WTCS win record and then went out and became the first woman ever to lead a race wire to wire. There then are all of the long course women who had better careers with many Kona wins and HM wins.

I don't understand why people are having such a hard time understanding how much better women's triathlon is today versus 2016. The top women all are the top swimmers who also are the top bikers who also can run. Can they run as fast as Gwen at her peak? No but Gwen never would be able to swim with the top women today, would get further dropped on the bike and then would be so far back the little bit she would be able to make up on the run wouldn't matter. She would be a worse Beaugrand who is a top swimmer who still cannot handle a hard 40K on the bike and still is not a factor in the Olympic distance (she must better at sprints and is best female on the relay). She never would have medaled in Tokyo because she never would have been able to swim with the lead women on the swim and the race was over if you weren't in the lead pack. Flora then ran 33 flat.

Her bid to make the Olympics is entirely hinged on conning USAT to give her the 3rd discretionary spot. She has ZERO chance of grabbing one of the two possible auto picks. However, as noted above, there are many women who are far superior to a 38-year old far ahead of her who can swim much better than she ever could (and swimming really matters now). The two Taylors, Rappaport, Kasper and Zafares all are ahead of her. She could pass Kasper but I don't see how she ever gets ahead of the other four. Don't forget that if she makes the team, it means that two of those four don't. She then would have to bump one of the other two who make the team off the relay. The only way any of this would happen is politics or major injuries to multiple women.

ceccione wrote:

fkkfkfkfkf wrote:

Realistically she can't chase points. She needs to spend 6 months getting in tri shape. Her way to make the team is that 3rd pick by showing she is in great form at the end of this season and next. She isn't going to get enough points but if you can say I beat the 3rd and 4th people 3 times convincingly you have a good argument for the slot.

The question is what type of shape she will be in 6 months. She gave birth like 4 months ago. This race could have been on like 6 weeks of decent training. It is reasonable to expect decent improvements going forward but enough to be competitive? Time will tell. A race in like 3 months should tell us a lot.

She's fit now. Not old Gwen but not starting from scratch. She has hit the ground running. She needs to do a full, not a sprint. See where strength is.

The 3rd discretionary Oly spot decision is not made end of this year. It's made next year, late Spring / early Summer, giving her many more months. Lots of time.

We won't know where she really is until she gets WTS starts and at the full distance. But....... world cups do have some WTS athletes racing, just not WTS depth. Even if she races mostly world cups, it's still a reasonable indication where she'd be in WTS races (if it is a full distance).

The difference is ranking points. Much less offered at world cups than WTS.

ceccione wrote:

BrainCell wrote:

not to get side tracked but this is wildly inaccurate. The course was short.

- The course was started in a different place to when it had been previously officially measured (backed up by the Strava data of participants).

- Running in looped cycle-track circuits like this always throws up innaccurate GPS, and having done it the same myself, you end up with 5.1K or 5.2K for running a proper measured course. Strange everyone got 5K exactly on GPS here though..

- Beth went into the race apparently heavily fatigued (in her own words)

- She also the week before the race broke 3:00 for 1K for the first time in her life in a training session... now within a week she runs 14:41? no.

- Her 3000m PR is 8:53 from 2016, and hasn't gone sub9 since. In fact apart from this one race, her life time bests are 4:18, 4:46, 8:53, 15:24, 25:34, 32:03, 73:29 - does that strike you as someone with 14:41 potential?

- Beth mentioned how her watch never had her on pace for anything below 15:20 "then I turned the corner and saw the finish already"

- Sweat Elite met up with her soon after to film a workout and she struggled to hit 2:30/800 for reps

Some Stravas had it longer than 5k or spot on. Guess it depends..

Sweat Elite met up with Potter during a triathlon training block, not before her 5k record(ish) accomplishment. Did you look up Potter's run workouts from 2016 when she ran in the Rio Olympics? Start there, Sweat Elite triathlon block.

To the point, Jorgensen has never been close to doing anything Worldly for running alone. 9th at trials? National class, sure. Not an international team and certainly not Beth Potter. Beth Potter is an Olympic runner. Gwen is not.

Potter is still on the up and up, momentum wise, still getting faster in the water and stronger on the bike. It's a huge puzzle., learning to run REALLY fast in that puzzle takes time. Ask Gwen.

Potter will be freakishly better come 2024.

ceccione wrote:

jamie t wrote:

We get it that you are a Blu fanboy but he clearly isn't the GOAT right now (although he is on his way). Frodeno has 3 Kona wins and 2 HM WCs. Blu has 1 and 1. Their golds cancel out but Blu has 1 WTCS WC. The GOAT obvious cannot have fewer Kona and HM WC golds if the Olympic gold count is the same.

Heck, AB has two Olympic golds (outdoing both of them) to go with 2 WTCS WCs and 3 HM WC silvers. He obviously has nothing in Kona.

Gomez has them all beat with 5 WTCS golds (plus 4 silvers and 2 bronzes), 2 HM WCs, 1 Xterra WC and an Olympic silver but nothing in Kona.

It's safe to safe that GOAT is undecided right now.

No, you still concede the GOAT point to Blu. I was a Mike Pigg, Simon Lessing, AB fanboy before Blu. Raced against two of them myself. Fans of the sport aren't fanboys. We are just people that know more about the sport than you.

For Blu vs. Frodo GOAT comparison, it's not a matter of merely cancelling Olympic golds then adding up what's left over. That's idiotic, void of any relative nuance regarding the sport of triathlon. We get that you are a simpleton-fanboy (since you want to name call) but you will still have to learn about triathlon to have a place in this conversation.

Let me introduce you...

You have to weight appropriately the SPORTS SPECIFICITY required to win at any distance in triathlon now. They are different sports. Crossing over is impossible for most, let alone doing that and winning, let alone in the same year. To win Oly Gold, 1/2 IM world title, and a full IM world title in such a short span of time is unheard of. Then go back DOWN to draft legal racing for Paris. It's all unprecedented. It is so unbelievably hard... it would be unfathomable until it happened.

Nothing Frodo did was unprecedented:

~ People won gold before Frodo.

~ People won multiple Kona's before Frodo.

~ People broke Kona records before Frodo.

Frodo had the Kona record for a minute. Iden and Blu both crushed it. Both are cross-over athletes, not even fully committed to IM like Frodo. That's how good Blu is. Frodo's records are being broken by athletes who are moonlighting as IM triathletes. That is not GOAT material. Blu is faster in Kona. Sure, there are no records in triathlon but I doubt the conditions alone can account for the massive gap by which Frodo's record was broken. What we saw was a leap in the Kona game (assisted by good conditions). Frodo's record also probably had good conditions.

The fact that crossing over in the such a short period of time is so difficult, it lends huge weight and gravitas to Blu. It blows away Frodo's multiple Kona's, easily. How long was Frodo's 08' Gold to his first Kona? There yuh go, sports specificity. Frodo is not in the GOAT conversation with Blu.

Based on what he has done, Blu is the hands down GOAT already. Without at all considering his future. Who knows where he will end. It doesn't matter. He's the GOAT right now.

In fairness, Mark Allen is the next best in the overall GOAT standings for men IMO. He won, what I would argue was the first unofficial Olympics for triathlon (Avignon worlds 89') and then won Kona that year. Yes, non-draft worlds was not the depth or specificity of ITU & IM now but the efforts were relative to the era. With regard to BEASTING it across different distances in the same year like Blu, Mark Allen is also very special. Better than Frodo.

Ali beat Gomez for the best short course racer ever. There was never a debate. podium % and dominance was all AB. Gomez' "World titles" (sleeper fests spanning entire seasons) are worthless when he got owned by AB in head-to-heads and at Olympics. An ITU "world title" just means you went to a lot of races and did well. It does not mean you are the best short course racer, even if you win 5 of them. See Leo Bergere last year.

jamie t wrote:

ceccione wrote:

Some Stravas had it longer than 5k or spot on. Guess it depends..

Sweat Elite met up with Potter during a triathlon training block, not before her 5k record(ish) accomplishment. Did you look up Potter's run workouts from 2016 when she ran in the Rio Olympics? Start there, Sweat Elite triathlon block.

To the point, Jorgensen has never been close to doing anything Worldly for running alone. 9th at trials? National class, sure. Not an international team and certainly not Beth Potter. Beth Potter is an Olympic runner. Gwen is not.

Potter is still on the up and up, momentum wise, still getting faster in the water and stronger on the bike. It's a huge puzzle., learning to run REALLY fast in that puzzle takes time. Ask Gwen.

Potter will be freakishly better come 2024.

You really like to clutter the board with nonsense like this. Potter's fastest 10K ever is 32:03. Jorgensen's is 31:55. The only reason why Potter is an Olympic runner is because she is a citizen of a country with crappy women's 10K runner. She would not be an Olympian runner if she were an American and Jorgensen would be an Olympic runner if she were from the UK. It's beyond comical that you are claiming that Potter is a world class runner simply because she an Olympian but Jorgensen is not with a faster PR.

jamie t wrote:

ceccione wrote:

No, you still concede the GOAT point to Blu. I was a Mike Pigg, Simon Lessing, AB fanboy before Blu. Raced against two of them myself. Fans of the sport aren't fanboys. We are just people that know more about the sport than you.

For Blu vs. Frodo GOAT comparison, it's not a matter of merely cancelling Olympic golds then adding up what's left over. That's idiotic, void of any relative nuance regarding the sport of triathlon. We get that you are a simpleton-fanboy (since you want to name call) but you will still have to learn about triathlon to have a place in this conversation.

Let me introduce you...

You have to weight appropriately the SPORTS SPECIFICITY required to win at any distance in triathlon now. They are different sports. Crossing over is impossible for most, let alone doing that and winning, let alone in the same year. To win Oly Gold, 1/2 IM world title, and a full IM world title in such a short span of time is unheard of. Then go back DOWN to draft legal racing for Paris. It's all unprecedented. It is so unbelievably hard... it would be unfathomable until it happened.

Nothing Frodo did was unprecedented:

~ People won gold before Frodo.

~ People won multiple Kona's before Frodo.

~ People broke Kona records before Frodo.

Frodo had the Kona record for a minute. Iden and Blu both crushed it. Both are cross-over athletes, not even fully committed to IM like Frodo. That's how good Blu is. Frodo's records are being broken by athletes who are moonlighting as IM triathletes. That is not GOAT material. Blu is faster in Kona. Sure, there are no records in triathlon but I doubt the conditions alone can account for the massive gap by which Frodo's record was broken. What we saw was a leap in the Kona game (assisted by good conditions). Frodo's record also probably had good conditions.

The fact that crossing over in the such a short period of time is so difficult, it lends huge weight and gravitas to Blu. It blows away Frodo's multiple Kona's, easily. How long was Frodo's 08' Gold to his first Kona? There yuh go, sports specificity. Frodo is not in the GOAT conversation with Blu.

Based on what he has done, Blu is the hands down GOAT already. Without at all considering his future. Who knows where he will end. It doesn't matter. He's the GOAT right now.

In fairness, Mark Allen is the next best in the overall GOAT standings for men IMO. He won, what I would argue was the first unofficial Olympics for triathlon (Avignon worlds 89') and then won Kona that year. Yes, non-draft worlds was not the depth or specificity of ITU & IM now but the efforts were relative to the era. With regard to BEASTING it across different distances in the same year like Blu, Mark Allen is also very special. Better than Frodo.

Ali beat Gomez for the best short course racer ever. There was never a debate. podium % and dominance was all AB. Gomez' "World titles" (sleeper fests spanning entire seasons) are worthless when he got owned by AB in head-to-heads and at Olympics. An ITU "world title" just means you went to a lot of races and did well. It does not mean you are the best short course racer, even if you win 5 of them. See Leo Bergere last year.

More bloviating by someone who thinks he has a "nuanced" approach.

I don't have to weight any sports specificity and you again thoroughly embarrass yourself implying that it's almost impossible when Blu just did it. He also DIDN'T do it it Kona against a full field. Blu winning once not in Kona not against a full field "blow away" Frodeno? Please. Give me a break.

Here's another one of your whoppers: "Nothing Frodo did was unprecedented."

Yeah. Sure, if you just ignore being the first person to win an Olympic gold medal and then Kona then you are correct. Let's just comically ignore that.

Your cluelessness was again on display citing Bergere as exhibit A on being a world champion but not being the best at short course. You are aware that there was this race called the Grand Final, which kinda was the biggest race of the year, and the last one and he kinda won it. It's kind of hard to claim that he wasn't the best short course athlete last year when he WON the grand final (in addition to the year long series). Are you going to claim someone he beat in Abu Dhabi actually was better and should have been world champion???

It's continue rot like you post that drags these boards down. Blu has had a great career so far and is in the mix as GOAT but you blindly declaring him the GOAT without question shows how utterly out to lunch you are as there are several athletes who currently and objectively have a better claim to that title even though you want to whine otherwise and seem to have gotten stiff over Blue's year in 2021.

ceccione wrote:

jamie t wrote:

To answer your first question, no, she isn't the greatest triathlete ever. She isn't even top 2 in short course. Duffy and Spirig both match her Olympic gold but both have done more than Gwen outside of the gold. Her two year peak was the best two year stretch ever but that was far too short. Duffy has beaten her largest WTCS win record and then went out and became the first woman ever to lead a race wire to wire. There then are all of the long course women who had better careers with many Kona wins and HM wins.

I don't understand why people are having such a hard time understanding how much better women's triathlon is today versus 2016. The top women all are the top swimmers who also are the top bikers who also can run. Can they run as fast as Gwen at her peak? No but Gwen never would be able to swim with the top women today, would get further dropped on the bike and then would be so far back the little bit she would be able to make up on the run wouldn't matter. She would be a worse Beaugrand who is a top swimmer who still cannot handle a hard 40K on the bike and still is not a factor in the Olympic distance (she must better at sprints and is best female on the relay). She never would have medaled in Tokyo because she never would have been able to swim with the lead women on the swim and the race was over if you weren't in the lead pack. Flora then ran 33 flat.

Her bid to make the Olympics is entirely hinged on conning USAT to give her the 3rd discretionary spot. She has ZERO chance of grabbing one of the two possible auto picks. However, as noted above, there are many women who are far superior to a 38-year old far ahead of her who can swim much better than she ever could (and swimming really matters now). The two Taylors, Rappaport, Kasper and Zafares all are ahead of her. She could pass Kasper but I don't see how she ever gets ahead of the other four. Don't forget that if she makes the team, it means that two of those four don't. She then would have to bump one of the other two who make the team off the relay. The only way any of this would happen is politics or major injuries to multiple women.

Short course women's triathlon has never had a GOAT. Nicola Spirig is the closest to it with two Olympic medals. Mostly, its dominant seasons but from many different women.

Long course women have had a couple vying for GOAT: Paula Newbie Fraser, Chrissie Wellington, Daniela Reif

This question will never be answered for women until it is answered in the same way it has definitively been answered for men:

Kristian Blummenfeldt

Who has done it all, over multiple distances, in the span of one year. Nobody comes close to his GOAT status.

Jonny Brownlee is the GOAT for short course racing.

Kristian Blummenfeldt is the GOAT for overall men's triathlon (short & long).

But women's dominance for the GOAT conversation is mostly in the long course realm, not the short course realm (Spirig?) and certainly not all combined (Erin Baker?), like Kristian Blummenfeldt's clear GOAT status in the span of a year, beating the best over multi distances.

Jan Frodeno is not close to Blu's record year.