Who you got? Katelyn Tuohy or Parker Valby

I have nothing against Valby, and this is not intended to be a slight toward her, but Tuohy, TBH, has run against tougher competition compared to Valby. If one is running against tougher competion, they will not beat them as easily.

Also, comparing times in XC really is worthless. All 6K courses are not exactly the same length. Courses vary in how tough they are. Some are as flat as a track and have manicured Bermuda grass while others have hills with long Kentucky bluegrass.

"Hand signal boy" made it a point to say that Valby crushed Mercy at the South regional. While she had a comfortable margin, Alabama was running as a pack. Tyynismaa, Olemomoi. and Chelangat all finished within .4 seconds of each other. If Mercy chose to not run in that pack, she could have (or probaby not since that was the plan of Alabama). Florida does not have a strong XC program like Alabama does so there was no pack for Valby to run with.

In the SEC Championship, Valby also beat Mercy but it was closer than the regional meet. It was also on a course of questionable distance, that was flat, and on manicured Bermuda grass. It was an impressive time but not as much stock should be put in it as has been.

Valby's most impressive win this season, IMHO, was her 1:04 victory over Ohio State's Addie Engel at the TAMU Arturo Barrios Invitational, While that margin was impressive, Engel chose not to go with Valby so as not to blow up and concentrated on scoring highly for her team.

To me, the more impressive victory in the conference championship meets was Tuohy's 11ish second win over Chmiel at the ACC on a much tougher course than what Valby ran the SEC meet on. Tuohy also had an impressive 12 second victory over Mercy over 5k at Piane. I also don't believe that she was flashing hand signals to the crowd in that race other than the standard Wolfpack signal when crossing the finish line.

I listed my picks on the first page of this thread. I honestly believe that McCabe or Tuohy are going to win. I peg Valby at 4th or 5th. She also could win. That is why they run the race. Valby will face the toughest competition she has faced this season, she will run on the toughest course, and in the coldest weather.

You stating that Henes confirmed doesn't mean that she confirmed it. Post your source, preferably with a link, or it didn't happen.

It's mentioned in rojo's article on the homepage of letsrun right now....

from what I have seen on youtube, I think valby is currently stronger than tuohy. But because tuohy seems to be the nicer person to me, I would love her to win.

My perspective as a fan is that I’m rooting for Taylor Roe for the upset. Obviously it’s easy to root for an upset, and Roe has been a consistent contender for a couple years who’s never gotten too much hype and seems (from an outsider’s perspective, one who has no clue) like a totally likable runner.

My prediction is that Valby will succeed in out-strengthing the field, winning by ~8 seconds over 2. Tuohy and 3. Chelangat. I don’t subscribe to the thinking that a runner on a strong team who believes they could win (Tuohy, Roe, Chelangat) will consciously hand the win to Valby in order to avoid blowing up, but I don’t think it will matter much anyway because these are smart, experienced runners who know how to balance running for the win with not blowing up in a 6k race.

I predict the first K or two will be fast but nothing crazy, but that Valby will be front-running from 1K-on and by the 4th K she’ll be making her intentions felt on some of the favorites, as the race becomes about as strung out as the D1 XC Champs can be—a practical time trial under tough conditions. Tuohy will stubbornly be the last to fold but she’ll drop back in the 5th K, checking over her shoulder to monitor a ~30m gap to Chelangat, McCabe and Roe. Valby stays strong in the final K, while Chelangat separates from 4th/5th and makes a run for Tuohy in 2nd, which Tuohy anticipates and rebuffs in the final 100m.

1. Parker Valby 19:35

2. Katelyn Tuohy 19:43

3. Mercy Chelangat 19:44

4. Ceili McCabe 19:48

5. Taylor Roe 19:50

6. Kelsey Chmiel 19:54

7. Hilda Olemomoi 20:00

8. Billah Jepkirui 20:02

9. Natalie Cook 20:05

10. Elise Stearns 20:07

Yes, I realize these would be historically fast times given the course and weather conditions, but I think it will be that kind of race.

Tuohy will dominate. Mark it down.

As usual I struggle to find points of disagreement with JWH. (Sorry about that JWH :))

The above is what my look at times this season suggest as well. I posted a while ago it would take sub 20 to make top 10. I would find a place for Markezich in the top 10, maybe at expense of Cook. 100% agree on how the race plays out, Valby being the leader but not crazy fast. For NC St vs NM, watch for NM to start slow and build so Bush and Seymour need to run controlled and expect to see NM coming up on them in latter part of race.

This is also why I tried to map out splits for a range so early on (ahead of 2K) I could see what was happening.

docs.google.com

2022 NCAA XC Split Projection

Open link

Weather prediction is 30s at race time and 10mph winds. That weather is not Valby certified to use LRs infamous phrase. I’m not more confident that Tuohy wins it.

I meant “now more confident”…

for those who did not see the vide of the 2017 NE NXR race, note Valby, finishing at about 13:45 of the video, is one of the very few to wear more than the basic kit. Still not sure why she ran in this race though - she is listed as UN - CT. Did she live there then? fwiw hardly looks like the same person (hs sophomore in this video).

nxrne.runnerspace.com

NXR Northeast Regional - Videos - Girls Championship 5k XC - NXR Northeast Regional 2017

NXR Northeast Regional Championships - Nov 25, 2017Bowdoin Park Womens 5000.00 Meters Northeast Championships (Not NY) Bib#NameYrSchool Time Pace Pts1 Robitaille, JuliaJRUNA-Robitaille-N 18:25.2 2 Donahue, Margaret (MagJRWell...

Open link

Apparently family lived in Comnecticut for a time

Tuohy in a trot. Barring injury i don't see any reason it won't look just like all the other XC races she has run and won this season. She will be looking very comfortable running in the early lead pack which will pull away from the mob slowly. around 3, 3.5 the lead pack will begin to thin as the pace and course become too much for most. with about 1 to go tuohy will almost imperceptibly pick up the pace a little further - a gap will open - she will look back a few times as she corners near the final stretch - a few last glances on the final stretch before easing through the chute alone...

it's not going to look like this - seems like the XC never does - but this gives me goosebumps every time

i'm predicting something a little more like this - just out in the hills

as dwight says, "she is NOT going to drop katelyn tuohy" and tuohy has vastly superior finishing speed. if you can't drop someone with your best early and extended hammering pace, and you can't come close to matching their kicking speed, it is pretty hard to win...

maybe they should just have a race and see who gets to the finish line first?

H?as Tuohy raced Valby or Cook or Rowe or McCabe this year? But you see no reason that she won't win again? Those are reasons even if you think she will win.

They are ruining this site for me. I don't like the insults. I don't like the attacks of posters. I especially don't like the acusations made about the next great American runner.

IT'S VALBYMANIA!!!

Valby

Roe

Tuohy (mosquito bite)