Sahlman bombs at Nuttycombe

Again, another clueless observation, Sahlman like many , many HS miler types and a 1:48 guy could crush people in HS XC at 5K, almost every sub 4:10 mile, not 1600 guy in history. has run very very effective if not great HS cross, Sahlman, better than almost all, Today's College XC fields are stuffed with 22-24 year old great XC runners...it is even tougher than when Nico Young entered. Top 10-20? This year? Not even close to happening, and was never going to.

Remember this guy? Below....As dominant a HS XC runner in History and an 8:29 two miler and 3:59 miler.

Lukas Verzbikas Frosh year. And things were no where near as tough as they are now.

2011-12: Cross Country - One of five freshmen to factor in the scoring at the Pac-12 championships with his 23rd-place finish in 23:55 (8,000 meters). Was the Ducks' No. 4 scorer. Made his Oregon debut at the Wisconsin adidas Invitational, where he finished 62nd in a deep and large field (24:35.4/8,000 meters).

Hmm, pretty similar Wiscy Result, Different Meet name, slightly different layout.

Sahlman is not Cole Hocker. He’s arguably one of the top 5 HS xc runners of all time and he was absolutely dominant as a senior and every bit as good as Nico. On top of this, Nico was his HS teammate, so the direct comparison’s are inevitable.

Fisher finished 17th as a true freshman in xc. Tell me that Sahlman did not show equal ability to Fisher in HS at cross, no he was better. If I recall, Fisher too was considered more of a 1500 guy coming out of HS.

Sorry, missing the point here. Are you saying he did or didn’t bomb based on the LV comparison?

You mean the guy who literally quit competing as a runner after the next race? Great comparison. Let’s hope this is not Colin’s path.

No, again you are missing the point..LV was one of THE most dominant HS runners in History, that is not debateable...

In today's world half of the field that beat him(Sahlman) , so at least 30 guys are most likely 21-23 years old at least. It is hard to come right in at 8K and 10K cross, now and dominate, it is NOT because I say so..it just is.

Liam Murphy and Jack Jennings from Nova and NJ were both sub 8:58 two milers..but this is their Third Year now of a fall season, they were in the low 50's scoring wise..But again, they should be good by now. My point is , that this field and NC's now are chock full of these guys, guys that were good in HS and are now 2-4 years older. That's all, these fields and their depth surprise even veteran coaches seeing how fast they have to run to score low at 8K. There were 90+ guys under 24 flat in that race..over 90 as well at Paul Short and they were not even close to all the same guys. It is savage out there now. That is my point, nothing more.

Very true. In a sport like running, where ones abilities take months and years to develop, it's absolutely stupid to assume that an elite high schooler will be an elite college runner only 5-6 months after graduating. It could take another year or two before Sahlman's talent catches up to the advantage of extra work that the college upperclassmen have on him. It even took Cooper Teare until his junior year before he was able to replicate his level of dominance at the college level. Some guys like Donovan Brazier can make the jump immediately, but they are outliers.

I have a hard time saying that Colin was one of the very best xc runners of all time.

he had 2-3 TEAMMATES right on his heels in most races (and didn’t one or both Youngs beat him a few times?). He absolutely was a stud and the no1 guy in the country, but if he hadn’t gone on to run those sub4s, we wouldn’t be calling him one of the greatest, and I’m not ready to make rulings on these kids based on track times because of the spikes. No1 guy of 2022, yes. Top 5 of all time? Pump the breaks.

whoever said he was better than fisher is nuts. Grant didn’t lose a race in all seasons from his soph year until after his senior year (outkicked by Drew Hunter). That included two dominant wins at FL.

IMO Nico was much more impressive as an all time great level than Colin in HS But he suffered from the opposite phenomenon- hardly any fast senior track times because of COVID.

regardless, still a big fan and excited to see his future, just not expecting him to post earth shattering results this fall.

The issue is expectations. The NP/Brosnan cult believed he was an elite college runner last year and was going to come in and dominate day one. It all depends on what you view as success. Through the lens of the fan club expectations, this was a bomb.

I don’t mean to come across like I’m rooting against Colin, nor would I use the word “bomb” to describe this first race. However, he was definitely touted as a top 10 high school prospect all time and I think it’s revisionist history to say this was all about his mid D performances and not distance/xc too. Based on history, it’s reasonable to expect a top 10 all time prospect to finish in the top 20 at NCAA xc as a true freshman, and though we have a month to go, this seems very unlikely. Is he a bust, of course not. Is he just a miler unlikely to leave his mark in longer distance or xc, no, wouldn’t say that either. Do we really think he’s an 800/1500 runner? No, he’s going to be a 1500/5000 runner and maybe ultimately a 5000/10000 guy. Is he performing out of the gate as might reasonably be expected given how he was running this spring, no not yet. I’m from CA and watched the Newbury Park crew run many times, and Sahlman was every bit as impressive as Nico in HS. Leo and Alex are amazing, but no, Sahlman had them beat every time it counted and with no doubt. Of course, they are a year below him.

And no one is doubting his HS greatness...however I don't see anything that makes him anymore a 15/5 guy , than an 8/15 guy..I would say those prospects are equal. His 3200 time converts to 8:36.x yards or almost 8:37, that is All Time stuff, no doubt, so is 1:48.x in not overdone attempts..8K Cross and certainly 10K is not an easy stretch for any HS kid to College..I personally think 8K and again to 10K are not in his sweet spot range..Thats just my opinion..not yet anyway. Webb was 11th as a frosh running a very undisciplined race, out way too hard..Ritz was 4th ? Running the Buff's roll up late tactic. I do not see Sahlman in any way shape or form being a top 15-20, I could be wrong..There were more guys than just the 59 that beat him , that did not even run, I presume.

I think top 50 with all runners in would be a great run, again, I think folks minimize the age of today's fields...But again, It's only my opinion, tons of these guys are seasoned dudes out there, and 22-23 even 24, doesn't mean by a long shot I think they are more Talented than Sahlman.

It's just where he is in the improvement curve, in my view. To me, regardless of track times run Ritz will always be the best XC runner in HS, that's just my view..and on the decades competed on Mich State Course, his mark, dwarfs other All Time Greats, not just good.. guys , by over 35 seconds...it's not even close and this is ahead or sub 8:50 , sub 4 milers and sub 8:40(Kessler)

Again, just an opinion.

Agree on Ritz and would put LV in the same category. He was just demolishing people and making it look so easy. Ritz didnt make it look easy, he actually collapsed after many races, but he spanked two all time great runners in Hall and Webb.

LV was described by Wetmore as "the best high school runner I've seen". Maybe I'd put Ches in that group too and go w/ those three as the best of the modern era, ahead of the other greats such as Fisher, et al.

Hard to compare Pre, Lingren and other old timers to these guys but they're obviously in a similar situation.

The guy not mentioned but whose candle burned as bright, albeit for a shorter period, is German Fernandez. He did some otherworldly things but also flamed out often as well. I.E. forgot his spikes at FL nationals and got wrecked. And then his DNF at ncaa XC as a frosh and short NCAA dominance will unfortunately leave him off many lists. If he went and crushed FL finals like we all expected, he'd be on the short all timers list.

Despite his brilliance, I don't put Colin on that list.

Did any of you guys compete at a high level? Or any level?

Cross Country is a grueling sport in which most athletes end up overraced. By that I mean you would not usually contest 4 or 5 or more 8000m or 10000m races in the track in one season but in cross country it is the norm. You guys seem to be placing way too much on one race. Colin is supposed to be getting a feel for the 8000m/10000m cross country race which is a notable change from the 5000m HS distance. I think Colin ran well actually as he got his feet wet at a longer distance against very good competition. This race was definitely a positive to build upon. If I had recruited a 1:48 runner (I am not a coach) and in his first 8000m cross country race he ran 23:50 I would be very excited about his future. There was nothing negative about Colin’s race. It was a tremendous first effort to build upon.

I agree on almost all those points, except maybe Fernandez who was one of my all time favorites with no apparent ceiling when I saw him live , I saw his Record at the time two mile, and it looked like he could have run anything, then his 3:55 Indoors 7:47 3k and what was an absurd 13:25 as an 18 year old frosh were otherwordly then. Despite some of his success and CR's in HS Cross, I never think of him as an all time great in that realm. I would include LV, and probably Ches as well. I will never include Sahlman ahead of any of them, and Webb could have beaten almost any guy ever in HS Cross except Ritz. Webb then had no parallel for me, I saw his 8:45 Two mile on a flat very average Indoor track, and I saw his 3:59 in person at the Armory, he surely could have run under 8:30 for yards when he was 3:53.x mile fit. Prefontaine with his instant NCAA success is surely on the short list for me as well. Prefonatine was beaten once? By an older All Timer I think in College Cross, Ches? Only By Tiernan I think in NC's.

I would agree with all of your post except the 4-5 XC race part..the really really good teams might run 4 with their full A Lineup, but rarely 5 with all of their "A" Line up, some are deep enough to not even have to run their A line up at Regions, maybe I am wrong? And some do not have to go to the Wall in conf or REgions.I am intimately familiar with Villanova, now, they are not deep enough to coast thru Big East which even though that conf is kind of soft, winning that is a Big Deal. Even they, though, might have the luxury of not running everyone at Regions, in that their 6-7's could be sat , as they most likely will not score unless there was a blow up, even if they all run 5..3 of those are 8K's over over almost 10 weeks and the additional two 10K's 13 weeks...You are right that is not that Optimal, but the NCAA realled F's this up..the whole seasonal schedules are two weeks off for most teams and thru the 8Ks, then they go up to 10K for Regions and travel and run again 7-8 days later? Why?

Again, the bulk of teams in College Cross do not even Q for the big Dance.

Most HS guys run at least 6 5Ks whith not nearly the back round or foundation of a College runner, I have always though that was about the break point..some guys and teams run 7-8 times.

We're aligned. But had German gone to FL finals and performed the way he did all season and then during outdoors, we'd be including him too (even though the others were great before their senior years). He's simply one of the greatest talents we've ever had.

Unfortunately he didnt bring spikes and just ran way below his standard.

I watched and raced against Webb and will never deny his brilliance, but I don't think he would have beaten LV.

https://nh.tfrrs.org/athletes/4517338/Oregon/Edward_Cheserek.html

Looks like Ches lost once at regionals and once at Pre-nats

I am not sure he would beat LV in cross, but I am almost certain he could have sat on him at two miles and blown by him, despite his 8:29 yards mark. As you know Webb ran 47.x relay wheels and ran 1:47.x with relative ease. I saw his 8:45, while a level well behind an 8:29, Webb easily crushed a great not a just really good Nate Brannen..who had already run sub 4. I do not see LV ever beating Webb on the track at any distance, In Cross? 5K Cross, I could see that I guess. I think Webb lost one XC race in his Junior/Senior years in XC, he also ran 12:17 at in his only appearance a HS Junior when 12:15 was the then record by Brad Hudson, he would have taken the CR record well , well below that as a Senior.