If and when Kipchoge slows to a 2:20-something marathoner, then I will understand the point you are trying to make. As it is, however, he ran 2:01 last week. So, he still isn't totally washed up like you are portraying. He can still run at paces that would seem very fast for pretty much all of us. He can still run reasonably fast for a mile (perhaps not the day after a marathon), and with a few weeks of sharpening up, he would get a little faster yet. He's not all washed up yet.
But, I do think you've done a pretty good job of trolling, though! :) 7/10!
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Wise Old Man wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Complete speculation on what he could run in the Spring if he made it his training focus, assuming he doesn’t start to slide, with paces per 400 & K:
1mi. 3:57.0 - 58.9 - 2:27.3
3k 7:42 - 61.6 - 2:34.0
5k 13:05 - 62.8 - 2:37.0
10k 26:55 - 64.6 - 2:41.5
1/2 58:10 - 66.2 - 2:45.4
1:59:41 - 68.1 - 2:50.2
2:01:09 - 68.9 - 2:52.3I have to believe his 3:50/7:27 days are well behind him and he couldn’t regain that speed if he tried, but he has the best aerobic development and marathon-pace efficiency of any potential sub-4 guy in the world.
As always with you, very reasonable and well informed. Is there a method/formula to your estimated change in pace 3k to 10k and does it differ for him than what you would assign to Fisher or even Jakob? I’m not talking the absolute pace and time, but the drop off as the distance increases. With his epic motor, I feel like if he can sustain a pace for 3k he might be able to hold very close to it for 5k. Maybe 2:35x per k and still under 13 min.
Honestly no method/formula, just speculation based only on years of stats-geeking. I do predict his pace to decline less steeply all the way from 1500 to marathon than your typical world class 3k/5k guy. If Fisher could run 7:27.0 and slow down by 3.0”/K, he’d run 12:40.0. If Ingebrigtsen could run 7:24.0 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:35.0. If Komen could run 7:20.67 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:29.5. For most 3k-5k elites, we’d expect more like 4”-5”/K differential from 3k to 5k pace.
Seems doubtful to me that he could still break 13:00 for 5k. In 2012, his last season on the track, he raced in one of the fastest 5ks ever in Paris and ran 12:55 for 8th, against a 12:46 winning time. He’s aged extremely well of course, but he’s probably still lost more than a few seconds over 5k in ten years of marathon training and from age 27 to 37.
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
Honestly no method/formula, just speculation based only on years of stats-geeking. I do predict his pace to decline less steeply all the way from 1500 to marathon than your typical world class 3k/5k guy. If Fisher could run 7:27.0 and slow down by 3.0”/K, he’d run 12:40.0. If Ingebrigtsen could run 7:24.0 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:35.0. If Komen could run 7:20.67 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:29.5. For most 3k-5k elites, we’d expect more like 4”-5”/K differential from 3k to 5k pace.
Seems doubtful to me that he could still break 13:00 for 5k. In 2012, his last season on the track, he raced in one of the fastest 5ks ever in Paris and ran 12:55 for 8th, against a 12:46 winning time. He’s aged extremely well of course, but he’s probably still lost more than a few seconds over 5k in ten years of marathon training and from age 27 to 37.
Yes that’s correct! The best he could hope for in a 5k at his current age is 13:05-13:10. That puts him at 27:10-27:20 for 10k.
As for the mile, another useful comparison besides Nick Willis is 2015 Bernard Lagat. That year old man Lagat ran 3:41 for 1500, which was 15 seconds slower than his PR. He ran the mile in 3:57, which was 10 seconds slower than his PR. If old man Lagat ran 10-15 seconds slower in the 1500-mile and only ran 3:57 while concentrating on the 5k, how on Earth is old man Kipchoge going under 4 after a decade of running the marathon??? It makes no sense!
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Wise Old Man wrote:
This is Jim Kiler wrote:
No. Kipchoge is a 2:04-low guy at best in non-bouncy shoes. He's literally the reason Nike created the carbon shoe, and the iterations are tuned exactly for him. There's not yet a track shoe on earth that would give him enough spring to run sub-4 at this point.
In a world where the carbon shoe ceased with Fila's effort the WR would probably still belong to Dennis, and Kipchoge would have the 25th-best or whatever time and would have retired years ago.
(Rupp would be a 2:08 guy forever.)
Omg, that’s delusional. Do you think Kipchoge is the one and only super shoe responder and that he’s like 2 minutes clear of his peers now just because he vibes better with the shoes than anybody else? He ran 2:03:05 in London in 2016 without a true super shoe and its crazy to think he would still not have the marathon record by now. I tell you one thing, if he and Bekele had the dragonfly back in the “old” days, Kipchoge would have a sub 12:40 pr and Bekele would still hold the wr, maybe even sub 12:30.
Omg, that's delusional that you think the shoe Kipchoge wore at London in 2016 was not at least partially as good as what Rupp wore over two months earlier, which was a Zoom-foamed plated shoe.
The "super" shoe was in use in mid-February, 2016. I'd assume that any Nike win that year, if not from November, 2015 on, was in a "super" shoe unknown to everyone else.
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
Wise Old Man wrote:
As always with you, very reasonable and well informed. Is there a method/formula to your estimated change in pace 3k to 10k and does it differ for him than what you would assign to Fisher or even Jakob? I’m not talking the absolute pace and time, but the drop off as the distance increases. With his epic motor, I feel like if he can sustain a pace for 3k he might be able to hold very close to it for 5k. Maybe 2:35x per k and still under 13 min.
Honestly no method/formula, just speculation based only on years of stats-geeking. I do predict his pace to decline less steeply all the way from 1500 to marathon than your typical world class 3k/5k guy. If Fisher could run 7:27.0 and slow down by 3.0”/K, he’d run 12:40.0. If Ingebrigtsen could run 7:24.0 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:35.0. If Komen could run 7:20.67 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:29.5. For most 3k-5k elites, we’d expect more like 4”-5”/K differential from 3k to 5k pace.
Seems doubtful to me that he could still break 13:00 for 5k. In 2012, his last season on the track, he raced in one of the fastest 5ks ever in Paris and ran 12:55 for 8th, against a 12:46 winning time. He’s aged extremely well of course, but he’s probably still lost more than a few seconds over 5k in ten years of marathon training and from age 27 to 37.
More delusional nonsense. Do you really believe his speed or Oxygen uptake have deteriorated that much? His 2.01 marathon is 21 kmh. A 13 minute 5k is 23kmh.
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He's already done a 3:50 so, yes, shouldn't be that hard
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Runners and their delusions wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Honestly no method/formula, just speculation based only on years of stats-geeking. I do predict his pace to decline less steeply all the way from 1500 to marathon than your typical world class 3k/5k guy. If Fisher could run 7:27.0 and slow down by 3.0”/K, he’d run 12:40.0. If Ingebrigtsen could run 7:24.0 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:35.0. If Komen could run 7:20.67 and slow down 3”/K, he’d run 12:29.5. For most 3k-5k elites, we’d expect more like 4”-5”/K differential from 3k to 5k pace.
Seems doubtful to me that he could still break 13:00 for 5k. In 2012, his last season on the track, he raced in one of the fastest 5ks ever in Paris and ran 12:55 for 8th, against a 12:46 winning time. He’s aged extremely well of course, but he’s probably still lost more than a few seconds over 5k in ten years of marathon training and from age 27 to 37.
More delusional nonsense. Do you really believe his speed or Oxygen uptake have deteriorated that much? His 2.01 marathon is 21 kmh. A 13 minute 5k is 23kmh.
Yes, a difference in 2 kilometers per hour, but I’m not sure how meaningful that is. I mean if you change that figure to 24kmh it doesn’t stand out all that much from 21 vs. 23, but it would yield a 12:30 5k.
What do you believe he could run for 5k? Faster than his 12:55 SB from 2012? Faster than his 12:46 PB (~23.5kmh in your terms) from 2004?
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He can run 69 second quarters for a full marathon on the road. He can surely string together 4 under 60 on the track.
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John Wesley Harding wrote:
Runners and their delusions wrote:
More delusional nonsense. Do you really believe his speed or Oxygen uptake have deteriorated that much? His 2.01 marathon is 21 kmh. A 13 minute 5k is 23kmh.
Yes, a difference in 2 kilometers per hour, but I’m not sure how meaningful that is. I mean if you change that figure to 24kmh it doesn’t stand out all that much from 21 vs. 23, but it would yield a 12:30 5k.
What do you believe he could run for 5k? Faster than his 12:55 SB from 2012? Faster than his 12:46 PB (~23.5kmh in your terms) from 2004?
Here is his Oxygen consumption/economy test from 3 years ago:
content://media/external/downloads/1000000001#
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Runners and their delusions wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Yes, a difference in 2 kilometers per hour, but I’m not sure how meaningful that is. I mean if you change that figure to 24kmh it doesn’t stand out all that much from 21 vs. 23, but it would yield a 12:30 5k.
What do you believe he could run for 5k? Faster than his 12:55 SB from 2012? Faster than his 12:46 PB (~23.5kmh in your terms) from 2004?
Here is his Oxygen consumption/economy test from 3 years ago:
content://media/external/downloads/1000000001#
Learn something before posting, okay?
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This is Jim Kiler wrote:
Runners and their delusions wrote:
Here is his Oxygen consumption/economy test from 3 years ago:
content://media/external/downloads/1000000001#
Learn something before posting, okay?
Such as?
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If Zion can run 60s 400 at 285lbs, Kip can run sub 4:00 easy at 125lbs.
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Peach Pit wrote:
idk Nick Willis has trained for the mile specifically for the past 20 years and this year it took him a few tries to just barely dip under. And that was with him running 3:35 just 5 months prior. Kipchoge's endurance is undoubtedly otherworldly, but when was the last time he even touched something close to 4:00 pace? He's been in full on marathon training for a decade now, and I'd be surprised if he's done anything more than strides at 4:00 pace in that time.
How many people have run sub-4 past the age of 35 after completing a marathon? Any? Kipchoge is certainly a different beast, but if Nick Willis (rightful 2008 Olympic Champ peace be upon him) is struggling to do it a few months after a 3:35, it makes me a bit skeptical that Kipchoge could just drop down and after 10 weeks of training knock it out.
10 weeks? More like 10 days. Willis? Lol. Medals aside there are a 100 guys who would have had those medals if they weren’t Ethiopian or Kenyan
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Shtuka wrote:
Let's take 2:01:09. That's 4:37.4 per mile. Let's say the question is if he could run 3:59.0 for a single mile. That would require his MarathonPace to be 16.1% slower than MilePace (In the sense that 4:37/3:59 = 1.16). What would this look like for some other times?
3:59 ---> 4:37 (~2:01)
4:10 ---> 4:50 (~2:06:30)
4:20 ---> 5:02 (~2:11:30)
4:30 ---> 5:13.5 (~2:17)
4:40 ---> 5:25 (~2:22)
4:50 ---> 5:37 (~2:27)
5:00 ---> 5:48 (~2:32)
So, asking if Eliud can run 3:59 right away in his marathon buildup / peak is (at least on raw mathematical analogy) equates to asking runners in the parenthetical marathon shape if they can run the corresponding mile time.
To believe that Eliud could *not* run 3:59.0 suggests the existence of 2:32 runners who can't break 5, 2:22 runners who top out at 4:4x in their marathon buildup, 2:17 runners who can't get under 4:30, 2:11:30 above 4:20, and so on.
I have no idea what Chepngetich, Kosgei, etc are capable of in the mile. Ruth opened in 15:11 (4:53.8/mile), so I'm not convinced she couldn't crack 4:30... Connor Mantz just ran 2:08, could he run 4:15 or so? That's 13:10 5k pace, so seems like even in his marathon buildup he wouldn't be out of shot of it.
Could you run 2:07 and fail to be able to break 4:10 on that day? Perhaps.
Now of course Eliud's endurance is likely to be prodigious compared to any mortal, so it's possible these comparisons break down at top end. Still, perhaps people with experience in the 2:10-2:25 range can report some anecdotal data: e.g. Did anyone ever run 2:17 on a day they couldn't crack 4:30?
This is a great post. From a little bit of searching, there's not many guys who have run sub-4 at Kipchoge's age. Some of the best milers of all time ran their last sub-4 at: Nick Willis (38), Steve Scott (36), Coghlan (41, oldest), John Walker (38), and Anthony Whiteman (never heard of this guy but he ran 3:58 at age 40 and was a 2x Olympian).
Kipchoge is obscenely talented, but I'd bet there's less than 20 people ever who have run under 4:00 at his age after training for the mile specifically for 20 years. Saying he could do it after training specifically for them marathon for a decade seems like a stretch to me.
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Yet 90 percent posting on this thread think he could do this with five minutes of prep.
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This is Jim Kiler wrote:
Yet 90 percent posting on this thread think he could do this with five minutes of prep.
Did you see the oxygen uptake/economy graph? Did you understand it?
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Runners and their delusions wrote:
This is Jim Kiler wrote:
Yet 90 percent posting on this thread think he could do this with five minutes of prep.
Did you see the oxygen uptake/economy graph? Did you understand it?
Am I sitting at your computer right now? I don't think so.
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You know what's stunning? I had the same VO2 reading in college, and didn't run a 1:59, or 2:01, or 2:04, or 2:10, or 2:20 ...
Kipchoge can't run a sub-4 now, deal with it.
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Yeah, but it seems too far to me. The easiest way to change my mind would be to show me literally anyone placed top 3 in a WMM and at any point afterwards ran a sub-4 mile.
The best argument I can come up with off the top of my head is Rupp. He got bronze in the marathon right after finishing the 10k 3 seconds behind Farah, who ran his last 1600 in 4:00.3. Even then, Rupp was 30 and never stopped doing real speedwork, compared to Kipchoge who's 37 and probably hasn't done speedwork in 10 years.
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