Barega's superpower was his ability to close in 53 even off a hard pace, he had raw speed. He's lost that this year. He's still run good times, but the devastating close has vanished. It's a little baffling
This! Not gonna lie, I was pretty disappointed in his performance. When in shape, I think he's as close to Bekele as you can get. He could close a 26:40-50 race in like 53 seconds.
Well Barega was over cooked already coming in Eugene, so ...
But even then, it's not only the last lap, it's the 2 last laps. Can Barega run 53 secs, off a 58 secs penultimate lap ?
Also I think Jakob could have gone slightly faster in the last lap if he was challenged more.
His last 4 splits were :
13.7, 13.5, 13.2, 13.5
I think he could have gone 13.5 - 13.5 - 13.2 - 13.00.
A 3:28 guy is not going to lose a sprint finish in the 5000m or 10000m unless the pace is near world record pace, and maybe not even then, and you can't get that pace without people working together, trading off laps, in relatively cool weather. That formula worked for 11 titles for Farah; it worked for El G in 2004 (3:26 in his case); it worked for Lagat (3:26.34) in 2007; and it worked for Jakob in 2022.
And it didn't work for ElG in 2003. In 2019 a certain 3:30 runner got destroyed in the last lap.
7:44.55 through 3000m (albeit with even pacing), and Jakob sat a few seconds off it. He then closed them down and easily moved away for 12:48.
If they yoyo 61/67s, he might just sit off, let them burn their legs, and close hard. I really can't see how he loses between that last 2k of 5:04 in perfect conditions Rome and this 1:52high 800m close in sunny Eugene.
True that.
So in theory the most likely tactic to work on Jakob would be to have someone who can run sub 12:50 pace for 4600m to sacrifice himself. And then just hope it then makes Jakob unable to close under 55 secs..
People here love that tactic. Ask them to list off when it has worked. It is a small list. There are plenty of options. The fast last 1600( run 60s instead of 64s and nobody is running a 54s last lap) or 3k also work.
A 3:28 guy is not going to lose a sprint finish in the 5000m or 10000m unless the pace is near world record pace, and maybe not even then, and you can't get that pace without people working together, trading off laps, in relatively cool weather. That formula worked for 11 titles for Farah; it worked for El G in 2004 (3:26 in his case); it worked for Lagat (3:26.34) in 2007; and it worked for Jakob in 2022.
Obviously he will advance his Brit Farah (or "fake Brit" as some please to say) over the one that initiated this trend. The big cloud in the sky that darkened ou dreams.
After seeing now an analysis about the race, I can say without doubt that the water stations are the reason the race was slow (because they influenced to relax the runners) and this favored Ingerbrigsten.
This is a shameful arrangement in a country without historic background on long distances.
There are others innovations they could do instead of these stations. They could adopt injecting pipes of water surrounding the track, to refresh the air while they are running.
I doubt that heat was that much of factor. It was in the mid 80s during the race, but as comfortable as that temp can ever be, with a cooling breeze and very low humidity. Plus, half the race occurred in the shade. Cheptegei went 12:58 in Tokyo during considerably worse conditions.
I don't expect championship racing to turn into WR affairs, but at least for the time being we better find someone who can close the final 1K of a 5K in 2:18 or it's all Yak.
I don't expect championship racing to turn into WR affairs, but at least for the time being we better find someone who can close the final 1K of a 5K in 2:18 or it's all Yak.