Could Jakob Ingebrigtsen break the 5000m world record?

(WR 3000m / WR 1500m) / (No 100 3000m) / (No 100 1500m) = 1,003 ???

That's why the 3000m WR is stronger? The quotient of the records should be the same than the quotient of the No 100 times? So your requirement is that the No 100 times are equal? For sure the No 100 time in the 3000m is weaker than the No 100 time of the 1500m. This hardly could be questioned.

El Guerrouj could break the 3000m WR in 1999 (or come really very close to it) despite beeing a pure 1500m specialist and despite racing it on only very few occasions.

The 1500m record is stronger, I have no doubt about this.

The problem with that reasoning is that you fail to account for the the fact that the 100th result on the all time is not an objective messure of ability.

Using the same logic but with 25th instead of 100th (as I could not find the 100th all time 100 yards time) we can (wrongfully) show that the WR of those events are about as difficult to beat.

The world record in the 100 yards is 9.07 and the 25th all time performance is 9.37 giving a ratio of 1,033

Meanwhile the WR in the 100m is 9:58 and the 25th all time is 9.86 giving a ratio of 1.029.

According to your logic this would indivate that these records are about as good with the 100m WR a bit weaker.

However in reality 9,58 is of course much more difficult and had there just been a split set up at the 100 yard line at bolts 100m WR he would have crushed it..

If a record is "strong" or "not strong" depends only on the time (7:20.67 or...) and not on the fact it the distance is raced very often or not. The question is not which record is most likely to be bettered by JI. The question just was, which record is "stronger".

It's very, very unlikely that a much more popular distance (1500m compered to 3000m) has the weaker record.

1500m is stronger than 3000m, that's almost certain. Which one can JI break? He obviously has a chance to break the 1500m, the 3000m (most likely) and the 5000m within the next two or three years (and I'm far from beeing a fan of him).

Women’s 2000m steeple :

The 100th performance on the all time list is 1.083 times slower than the first.

Yeah Gesa Krause’s world record is the strongest of them all, she is literally obliterating Komen’s world record. Yet her 2000m steeple world record is several second slower than Beatrice Chepkoech 2000m split in her 3000m steeple world record.

Good example.

(100th in 3000m / WR 3000m) / (100th in 1500m / WR 1500m) = 1,003.

Yes, that's why it's stronger. Considering that significant amount of runners has run both races I don't see how the unwillingness of elites to train specifically for 3000m makes the 3000m WR weaker. If anything, it makes the record even harder to break.

And even if the "rarity" of the event would impact the perceived strength of the record you can't deny that 5000m is as popular as 1500m. The difference between 100th place in 5000m and the 5000m WR is greater than in 1500m. That's why I think 5000m WR is the strongest of the three.

In fact according to your logic :

Women’s 2000m steeple is stronger than men’s 3000m WR by a factor of 1,053.
If you divide 7:20:67 by 1,053 you get 6:58:49.

That means Daniel Komen would have needed to run 6:58 in the 3000m just to equal Gesa Krause’s 2000m steeple world record.

Gesa Krause’s is the ABSOLUTE GOAT her record is stronger than Usain Bolt’s, Rudisha’s, El Guerrouj’s, Komen’s and Cheptegei’s records.

Jakob is possibly the best 1500m and 5000m runner in the world so how could he possibly adjust his training to focus on the 3000m which is about halfway between the 2 distances. Should he focus on more speed or more strength?

OK, I took the reciprocal.

5000m WR might be stronger than 1500m, I agree.

But we are comparing apples with apples here. Who can definitively say which WR is best? Why should the 100th placing really matter? Some WR last 20+ years, so I suppose that constitutes a "hard" record. Other records are "softer", but it's all a debate, really? We cannot PROVE anything.

Yes, there is no absolute measure.

I think he/she choose the 100th performer to avoid possible outliers.

Longevity of a record is some measure. But could be extremely misleading for sure.

47.99 in the women's 400 stoor for just two yeras

1:53.43 in the women's 800 stood for just three years

46.78 in the men's 400mH stood for 29 years

12:39.74 in the men's 5000 stood for less than one year

Yet Young's record by far is/was the weakest of those four records

Obviously the 100m is the most valued for IAAF expert.

Not surprising that Elaine Thompson was voted Athlete of the year while competing with Sifan Hassan.

The two mile WR by Komen is 25/26 years old, but who run that distance?

You should define what does "the strongest record" mean. The way I see it it means as much as "most unlikely to be broken", so this way women 2000m Steeple could be stronger than other records. If 10 men this year would run 1500m in 3:28 - 3:29, I would not consider 3:26 a strong record anymore.

Either way, undoubtedly 5000m is the strongest out of the three, and 3000m might be slightly better than 1500m. Don't know what you're complaining about though, since Komen was a beast and running two 3:40 1500m back to back is a crazy feat.

Basic Math!

1. Consider Jakob's age.
2. The times the WR holders were running at Jakob's
3. The times Jakob's is running at the same as the WR holders.
...with a year-to-year linear progression of just .05%, in theory, it should be a done deal

Here is where it becomes problematic, Jakob will not have a Lagat, Shine etc. to push him.

Jakob already has good 15 years of intense professional training in his legs. He will retire within next 2 seasons already (probably after Paris), once winning will become harder and he will get beaten a few more times.

Or not. Regardless of how much he has already trained, he’s likely to reach his peak in the 1500m at age 26-28 years just like anyone else. I’m pretty sure he wasn’t being paid for running until he was at least 18 and certainly not when he was 7 years old.

Korir is not being paid for running and yet won the WC. No matter how you twist it, human body can only take a certain amount of abuse before giving in. 15 years of hard training is around what than most pros can take. Also, everyone knows Jakob hates losing, so a few more times of losing against the likes of Wightman and he's ready to retire.

"I've been a professional runner since I was eight, nine, 10 years old,” Jakob Ingebrigtsen says. “I've been training, dedicated and following a good structure – the same as my brothers – from an early age."

Training volume aside, I think what Jakob knows is that Lagat set his PR in the 1,500 at age 26 and his 5,000 PR 10 years later at 36. Lagat ran the second fastest 1,500 in history but was no slouch at the 5,000 winning a world championship gold (doubling with the 1,500) and two silvers. Lagat didn't focus as much on 5,000 until later in his career which isn't a typical and generally one's endurance slows later than one's speed which is why you see so many middle distance runners start moving to longer distances as they approach 30 and beyond. Even El G who retired on the younger side set his 5,000M PR several years after he had peaked at the 1,5000.

What I expect is that Jakob will continue to focus more on the 1,500 (while also competing in the 5,000) as long as he feels he can win and then maybe in a few years he starts to really focus on the 5,000. I expect his lifetime PR will be under 12:40 but it wouldn't surprise me if that comes later in his career.

I am sure Lagat could have run faster than 12:50 for the 5000 if he had solely focused on it earlier in his career but the fact is he had great success at that distance and I don't think he was ever going to be in the top 3 all-time like he was at the 1,500 no matter what he did. If not for El G we'd be talking about Lagat being the greatest given his World Championship Double, 1,500 world record, and at least one Olympic Gold Medal.

Who knows what Jakob will or will not do but I'd suspect he will get to 3:27 in the next year and probably under 12:40 in the next 3-5.

World Records are nice but as many folks have said the likelihood of them happening in a 5,000 olympic or championship race are slim to known people are going for the gold. It is more common in the 1,500 but for every fast finish like 2021 Tokyo Olympics there are an equal number of slow tactical races like 2016 Rio.

according to the iaaf scoring tables, sub 7:20 is slighly stronger that a 3:26 1500 and right at Chep's 10k record. Chep's 5k record is 7:20 low converted