I think it’s ridiculous to say that anybody at this point is in 12:40 shape. I’m predicting a slow first mile, lots of jostling and testing in the 2nd, and all out speed with 800 to go.
if Jakob is leading with 400 to go, I say he loses, but I think Chep and Barega and hopefully Fisher will be there fighting for that spot. If Jakob had to go wide, no way he wins.
If Fisher will get bold and let it fly with 800 to go, he should absolutely be on the podium. Who wins is a tough call. Hard to bet against Chep.
A lot of people whining about Jakob being 19 in 2019, so was barega and he won a silver medal in the 5k. Anyone of the main contenders could win, so don't go handing gold medals around when the race hasn't been run yet. He got out kicked by jake wightman, so maybe lessen the expectations a lil bit
Wow. Just saw a clip Grant Fisher said his 4x400 split is maybe 49.
Why would this surprise you? In so many words, Grant Fisher has told the world he is a high 50.xx F.A.T. 400m or low F.A.T. 51.xx 400m man. Would you expect a 3:35.xx 1500m man to have slower 400m ability? Miruts Yifter supposedly did a 48.xx 400m TT 1972 in Munich while training. Grant Fisher needs penultimate lap to be sub 59 seconds. Your post in regard to Fisher and 400m ability has told me what I suspected. It is best for G. Fisher not to sit in the catbird sit from 4100m to 4900m. G. Fisher needs to do his best imitation of Lasse Viren/Mohammed Farah. Do not be afraid to take the lead with 900m to go G. Fisher.
Fisher is a great runner but why would he have an advantage over the last 900m against guys with faster 5000m PRs and comparable, or better, 1500m speed?
Why would this surprise you? In so many words, Grant Fisher has told the world he is a high 50.xx F.A.T. 400m or low F.A.T. 51.xx 400m man. Would you expect a 3:35.xx 1500m man to have slower 400m ability? Miruts Yifter supposedly did a 48.xx 400m TT 1972 in Munich while training. Grant Fisher needs penultimate lap to be sub 59 seconds. Your post in regard to Fisher and 400m ability has told me what I suspected. It is best for G. Fisher not to sit in the catbird sit from 4100m to 4900m. G. Fisher needs to do his best imitation of Lasse Viren/Mohammed Farah. Do not be afraid to take the lead with 900m to go G. Fisher.
Fisher is a great runner but why would he have an advantage over the last 900m against guys with faster 5000m PRs and comparable, or better, 1500m speed?
First, raw speed does not always correlate with the ability to kick well. Eg. Tim Cheruiyot. For an elite 1500m, Tim C. does not have good late race change of speed. I believe Asbel Kiprop commented on Tim C. not being a strong racer over the final 50m. If kicking were just sprinting speed, Rod Dixon probably should be 1976 Olympics 5000m gold medalist or at a minimum silver medalist. I don't trust G. Fisher's final lap kick and I don't believe G. Fisher trusts his final lap kick.
As you know, one mile is huge in U.S. Many U.S. 800m athletes to Marathoners max out their potential or come close to maxing out their potential as 1500m/one mile athletes. On the other hand, many Ethiopians decide or it is decided for them to be 5000m &/or 10000m athletes at an early age. I ran on Paseo del Bosque Trail, ABQ, NM 6 or 7 years ago. World class Ethiopians would complete 15 or 20 mile Sunday runs then do strides. I would time the start of my Sunday runs to allow me to watch them do 100s or 200s. Unbelievable! How fast Ethiopians officially race 1500m is not an accurate assessment of their speed potential.
Lastly, the Viren/Farah leading the final (700 to 900)m tactic chooses the efficiency of leading and racing the shortest distance versus the extremely slight benefit of wind drafting over the final (700 to 900)m. As you know, it was congested over the final lap, men's 10000m final last week. Grant Fisher might as well run a 58.9 penultimate lap on the inside edge of lane one so it won't be a sub-55 lap contest over the final 400m.
I've never seen anyone as overhyped as Jakob on this forum.
dude has never won a single medal in the 5000m, but you would think he was an all-time great in that discipline by the way this place talks about him.
Guys are saying he's the favorite over Cheptegei???? The reigning gold medalist and record holder in the 5000m.
pure delusion
+1
Chep made a mental/tactical mistake in Tokyo that cost him the 10k gold, if not for that we would be heralding him as the next Geb/Bekele. People forget that Bekele attempted the double twice in ‘03 and ‘04 and failed both times, getting beaten by Kipchoge in ‘03 and El G both times. Geb only attempted the double once and failed (tho likely would’ve succeeded on multiple attempts). Chep has many chances to get his double, including tomorrow. He has the world records, he’s proven he can kick with the best of them at any pace, standing clear of the field in that tactical 10k here as well as the fast 5k in Tokyo. This is his race to lose, no matter how angry Jakob gets.
+1 This! End of discussion! And top 3 men’s 5k will be: 1. Cheptegei 2.Jakob 3. Fisher you
Chep made a mental/tactical mistake in Tokyo that cost him the 10k gold, if not for that we would be heralding him as the next Geb/Bekele. People forget that Bekele attempted the double twice in ‘03 and ‘04 and failed both times, getting beaten by Kipchoge in ‘03 and El G both times. Geb only attempted the double once and failed (tho likely would’ve succeeded on multiple attempts). Chep has many chances to get his double, including tomorrow. He has the world records, he’s proven he can kick with the best of them at any pace, standing clear of the field in that tactical 10k here as well as the fast 5k in Tokyo. This is his race to lose, no matter how angry Jakob gets.
+1 This! End of discussion! And top 3 men’s 5k will be: 1. Cheptegei 2.Jakob 3. Fisher you
You are underestimating Edris and Barega though I agree Chep is the favorite.
no, they don't, the 5k and the 10k are the harder events and are as impressive as the 1500m, especially the 10k.
Also the 1500m record is like 20 years old so the hype should start once somebody comes close to it or actually beats it
You actually believe the 5k and 10k are more widely watched than the 1500? Don't be ridiculous.
Well, every serious hobby jogger has ran a 5k, many high school athletes and collwge athletes ran cross country. Amany of these people care about the 5k more than the 1500m.
For 10k i agree, that is such a hard race that nobody except the runners themselves care about it.
Dont think i am biased as i actually am a 800/1500 runner myself but im just stating my opinion about 5k popularity.
Fisher is a great runner but why would he have an advantage over the last 900m against guys with faster 5000m PRs and comparable, or better, 1500m speed?
First, raw speed does not always correlate with the ability to kick well. Eg. Tim Cheruiyot. For an elite 1500m, Tim C. does not have good late race change of speed. I believe Asbel Kiprop commented on Tim C. not being a strong racer over the final 50m. If kicking were just sprinting speed, Rod Dixon probably should be 1976 Olympics 5000m gold medalist or at a minimum silver medalist. I don't trust G. Fisher's final lap kick and I don't believe G. Fisher trusts his final lap kick.
As you know, one mile is huge in U.S. Many U.S. 800m athletes to Marathoners max out their potential or come close to maxing out their potential as 1500m/one mile athletes. On the other hand, many Ethiopians decide or it is decided for them to be 5000m &/or 10000m athletes at an early age. I ran on Paseo del Bosque Trail, ABQ, NM 6 or 7 years ago. World class Ethiopians would complete 15 or 20 mile Sunday runs then do strides. I would time the start of my Sunday runs to allow me to watch them do 100s or 200s. Unbelievable! How fast Ethiopians officially race 1500m is not an accurate assessment of their speed potential.
Lastly, the Viren/Farah leading the final (700 to 900)m tactic chooses the efficiency of leading and racing the shortest distance versus the extremely slight benefit of wind drafting over the final (700 to 900)m. As you know, it was congested over the final lap, men's 10000m final last week. Grant Fisher might as well run a 58.9 penultimate lap on the inside edge of lane one so it won't be a sub-55 lap contest over the final 400m.
If the fields for all of the races Viren won would have run a TT with pacers, he would have won and set probably set WRs. In other words, he was the best athlete in all of his wins. It was his strength that allowed him to hold runners off at the end. Quax was in perfect position coming off the final turn but couldn’t pass Viren. Yifter could only manage a 57 second last lap in 1972,
I don’t believe Fisher is the best runner in the field and a Viren strategy won’t work for him. For example, Fisher doesn’t have enough of a strength advantage to beat the best 1500m runner in the world over the last 900m.
With the Ahmed got silver last year and Grant is clearly better than him this year argument:
Ahmed had a rough year this year. Missed the first half of BTC's altitude camp in the indoor season. Apparently he had only been at altitude for 2 weeks before the Boston 5000m race. That race was an (altitude) blood boosted Fisher vs sea level Ahmed. Ahmed has then had on and off injury issues and couldn't race Canadian champs. Guy ran 12:49 in Florence last year beating a bunch of big names and only managed a 12:55 this year in a less yoyo race. That was before he had to take time off. He's 31 now, takes a lot more to bounce back. As a Canadian the man is a hero, but I'm bracing myself for his worst ever global finals 5000m finish.
All that to say - just cause Grant is better than 2022 Mo, doesn't mean 2022 is basically Cheptegei.