Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 NCAA D1 XC Championships

How will the UNC Chapel Hill womens team do next year and progress over the next few years?

They are returning their 1-6 from the national championships and most of them will be around for many years. They also add Klingbeil (7th at RL) and Shapiro (13th at RL).

UNC has got some nice runners, but so far noone that can run with the top 5 of NM or NC State. I could see them finishing 7-10 th if things go well.

I went to lactic.com and removed every senior from the list.
These were the simulation results.

1 -NC State
2-New Mexico
3-Norte Dame
4-North Carolina

North Carolina will make big moves in the next one to two years.

BYU was well off the podium.

Harvard might make some noise in the next 2 years. They return Acer Iverson and Graham Blanks (40th at 23rd at nationals), Colin Baker if he’s healthy (48th at nationals in 2019), Vivien Henz from Luxembourg (3:38 in the 1500), and Shane Brosnan. All those guys should be eligible for 2023 as well.

Harvard will be very good - top 10 and maybe top 5

How will the University of Colorado womens team do?
Here is who raced at Nationals from that team:
19:37.60
Abby Nichols
8th
19:51.80
Emily Covert
31st
20:09.40
Rachel McArthur
54th
20:11.70
India JOHNSON
58th
20:20.20
Micaela DeGenero
76th
20:25.20
Hannah Miniutti
85th
20:28.60
Madison Boreman
96th
Pretty sure everyone from this group lost their eligibility except Covert and Miniutti. Anyone else eligible?
They also add a couple of transfers:
Bailey Hertenstein (got 28th at nationals in 2020)
Ella Baran
They also got an incoming freshman Addy Wiley who ran a 4:26 1600, although her CC results from fall 2021 didn’t show that she would be up there with the top UC women.

Next on the list I think would be Gabrielle Orie 16:07 5K this year.

This is a starting point, but does not yet reflect anything post 2021 XC.

I also saw that Annie Hill and Kaitlyn Barthell scored for Colorado at the Wyoming invite

true, although their 5K were both 16:50 this past season

Will Colin Sahlman finish in the top 5 or top 10 at nationals? Will he be able to be up there with Nico and Drew?

Drew Bosley will be in the 20s

Is it worthwhile to have a separate men’s and women’s thread? I have to admit I don’t care about the women’s XC championship. Thoughts?

Still trying to find more data for more teams, but while preliminary, the top W teams look to me like:

NC St/NM - 5 strong runners on both teams, looks close on paper (assumes good health of course)

OSU - some ifs but if they work out seem likely for podium esp on home course. The last hill may kill some other teams weakness at #4 and 5 runners like 2020. Clearly well back of the first 2 though.

NAU/Arkansas/Colorado/ND/Alabama/Washington - some ifs on each team, esp at #4 and 5 but seem most likely to fight it out for 4-9 place. Whoever finds the best depth will prevail, esp Alabama and Arkansas.

BYU/Villanova/UNC/Or St/Ole Miss - much less clarity but most potential

Top 7 individuals - Chelangat, Tuohy, Valby, McCabe, Roe, Chmiel, Gregory and right behind them a block of 20 including 3 more NC St and all 5 NM. For now, Cook and Hutchins in that block for those who wonder.

How will the University of Washington teams do?

They got a RIDICULOUS number of new freshmen and transfers!!!!

One sleeper team that I would watch out for is Utah Valley on the women’s side. They had 4 runners all under 16:08 during track, and they are ALL returning.

I was going to post nearly the same thing. I think Sahlman is a top 10 runner next year with a shot at the top 5. Nico did it his freshman year (though he had an extra 4 months of development due to delays in 2020).

If Nur goes pro, NAU will have a tough time repeating, but if not they should win easily.

Washington tends to screw it up in XC. While they have an insane amount of talent, they never lack talent. This year they may have too much to screw up. Top 5 is my guess.