I'd say the problem is not you missing something, but rather you adding some things.
There is nothing tangible in Houlihan's case that lets anyone conclude with any minimum level of certainty (let's say "balance of probability") that she deliberately took synthetic nandrolone. The CAS doesn't know. The AIU doesn't know. The AIU-hired experts don't know. And most certainly, posters here don't know.
The CAS didn't debunk her story 44 times over, but, maintained all along that it was always a possibility, and it still is, but that she failed to prove the source to the required standard of balance of probability. This could be possible to prove with more evidence, e.g. preserving and testing the uneaten portion of the burrito (similar to the case of Simon Getzmann), but that didn't happen, and the CAS was bound to make a quick decision base on the incomplete evidence and general population statistics before them, guided by WADA-customized definitions and presumptions written in the WADA code and related standards.
The AIU, the WADA lab, and the CAS also did not prove the source, nor intent, to any standard, so it is puzzling that fans who certainly know much less are so certain of conclusions presumed rather than proven.
Many are fooled by statistics that most pork burritos wouldn't produce a positive result, but these general statistics are irrelevent in this specific instance, where an athlete produce a positive result. If you put a black swan together with 100 white swans, the likelihood that any swan is black decreases, but the likelihood that the black swan is black remains unchanged.
What happens generally across the USA and Canada over time cannot change what specifically happened in one instance at one point in time. What is missing is evidence specific to the case of Houlihan.
As far as something in the case suggesting she is innocent, Prof McGlone, expert for the accusers, estimated (less than) 1 in 10,000 cryptorchid pigs would make it to market, and conceded that pigs were fed soy during the pandemic at about the right time. Using his figure as the right order of magnitude, in a market that slaughters 121 million pigs a year, that is up to 12,000 intact pigs getting on the market, each year, according to the accuser's expert. Given enough opportunities, while most burritos in the USA and Canada would likely produce a negative result, it is just a matter of time before an athlete produces a positive result from pork ingestion. In fact, scientists have known this and studied this for decades, with the AIU's own expert Prof. Ayotte producing pork ingested positive nandrolone results more than 20x higher Houlihan's test result. She also co-wrote another publication ("Half-truths vs. Facts") that said that Houlihan's delta-C13 values were about the same as the average of those measured in "our lab", and not above a maximum range as she testified to the CAS.
What is unjust about her case, is that she is presumed guilty of actions and intent that no one has any burden to prove, on the strength that the accused couldn't meet her burden to prove otherwise. These are the current rules, but the rules themselves, written by anti-doping body lawyers, are not designed for bring justice to the accused athletes, or determining truths with certainty, but rather designed to make prosecution easier and cheaper and quicker for anti-doping bodies who have no real power to compel production of evidence.
You've missed your vocation. You should be justifying the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If we take your Shelby argument Russia is the victim. The sane amongst us accept what the facts tell us: Russia has sent its forces into Ukraine - and Shelby has been banned for 4 years for a doping violation. Nothing you say changes the facts: she was caught doping and is paying the penalty. A cause for celebration. We might hope Putin gets his just desserts, too.
You're arguing because you like to argue . This case is as "grey" as can be .
I would LOVE to see the Brojos spend half as much time calling out the constant trolling of Mary Cain and Colleen Quigley that they do defending Houlihan. To be clear, Houlihan doesn't have haters, she has a lot of people who think she's guilty on the basis of the evidence. That isn't hating, that's a judgement based on facts. Again, go hard on the Mary Cain haters who seems to get such opprobrium for the heinous crime if speaking out about Salazar and then trying to have a life.
+1
And stop with all the pro-Houlihan deletions. Those attempts to re-write history appear rather comical if not outright desperate.
She said on IG she has something fun coming up and the past 1-2 months she’s been a week behind her BTC teammates’ races. She’s likely time trialing a 10K - I’d put her at 30:15, just behind Elise and Molly
There are so many of your disturb by this post. Don't worry, she is not racing. She is banned. She can't race. She's simply running a time trial.
But the thing is, why do you disturb yourself by clicking on this post? Clearly, I'm guessing, you're not following her IG, are you? Some people believe she is clean. Some don't. She knows. But she can go and run as much and as fast as she wants.
She said on IG she has something fun coming up and the past 1-2 months she’s been a week behind her BTC teammates’ races. She’s likely time trialing a 10K - I’d put her at 30:15, just behind Elise and Molly
She is a cheater and a liar. Period.
Her coach lied for her, too, and is apparently still coaching her during a BAN.
Her teammates have failed to speak up, and are apparently still training with her during a BAN.
Anyone who assists her (e.g. pacing) with this "look at me" publicity stunt should be sanctioned.
You've missed your vocation. You should be justifying the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If we take your Shelby argument Russia is the victim. The sane amongst us accept what the facts tell us: Russia has sent its forces into Ukraine - and Shelby has been banned for 4 years for a doping violation. Nothing you say changes the facts: she was caught doping and is paying the penalty. A cause for celebration. We might hope Putin gets his just desserts, too.
You're arguing because you like to argue . This case is as "grey" as can be .
Only to those determined to seek excuses for a convicted doper.
You've missed your vocation. You should be justifying the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If we take your Shelby argument Russia is the victim. The sane amongst us accept what the facts tell us: Russia has sent its forces into Ukraine - and Shelby has been banned for 4 years for a doping violation. Nothing you say changes the facts: she was caught doping and is paying the penalty. A cause for celebration. We might hope Putin gets his just desserts, too.
What do the sane amongst us do about conclusions without facts, or from ambiguous, and contradictory facts?
You wouldn't know, since you aren't amongst the sane.
Should we sponsor her? It would be epic if she broke 30:00 just to see all of the haters go ballistic. When I was younger, it was clear to me the world was black and white. Now I see lots of grey.
She very well could be a doper. There also is a possibility she inadvertently took a banned substance. Regardless, I like her time trials as it shows the problems inherent in our sport.
In football, a random person can't throw their own game and get people to pay attention. In track, they can.
One thing I do wish would happen. I wish WADA would show up at her door unannounced right now and offer to test her. If she denies the test, then well that speaks volumes. If she passes it, then it gets interesting.
Yes, you should sponsor a convicted doper. That will really help the LRC's dwindling reputation in this regard. What happened? You used to be the only ones asking the tough questions about people who were supremely suspicious but hadn't tested positive. Now you give the benefit of the doubt to someone who tested positive and gave one of the most incredulous excuses in history.
Whatever she's doing I'm rooting on her. She was my favorite runner before the failed test. I'd like to think you don't have to completely disappear off the face of the earth for failing a drug test if you truly didn't intentionally cheat. We will never know the truth. who am I to judge? either way. Whatever she runs doesn't count. So why you guys are getting triggered by her even running. When she has to stay in shape if she's going to stay in the testing pool and wait out the ban is beyond me. I somehwat believe her the same way I somewhat believe Kiprop because maintains his Innocence after all these years
GO SHELBY
You can't say she "didn't truly intentionally cheat", because the CAS finding included intent. She adduced nothing that was able to rebut that. She is a doper and appropriately banned. But they appear to be your favorite athletes.
Only to those determined to seek excuses for a convicted doper.
We await you proving that you are not a racist.
You seem to refuse to do so even though asked many times.
Why do you refuse ?
Come on prove it.
Tip: Please block Armstronglives and don't clog up the thread responding to him. Most of us already do. You aren't going to change his mind on anything, ever.
Whatever she's doing I'm rooting on her. She was my favorite runner before the failed test. I'd like to think you don't have to completely disappear off the face of the earth for failing a drug test if you truly didn't intentionally cheat. We will never know the truth. who am I to judge? either way. Whatever she runs doesn't count. So why you guys are getting triggered by her even running. When she has to stay in shape if she's going to stay in the testing pool and wait out the ban is beyond me. I somehwat believe her the same way I somewhat believe Kiprop because maintains his Innocence after all these years
GO SHELBY
You can't say she "didn't truly intentionally cheat", because the CAS finding included intent. She adduced nothing that was able to rebut that. She is a doper and appropriately banned. But they appear to be your favorite athletes.
But the CAS decision found he a very credible witness and did not find her her guilty of cheating.
You on the other hand will not prove that you are not a racist.
Per her Strava, she’s up in Oregon. Did a shakeout run yesterday at Nike Woods and today a few miles in Beaverton. Last week she posted about being sick while down in Flagstaff
Allegedly it is happening tonight. So keep your eyes peeled for that insta shot or something on her strava.
God I hope she doesn't run faster than the AR. Would be a joke. Obviously it wouldn't count but just would be kinda gross if the fastest known time by an American was by someone serving a doping ban.
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