That’s not really how it works. Barega and Kejelcha haven’t run 26:30, but I don’t think anyone is going to argue that they can’t.
Credit to Fisher, but most athletes either don’t have the luxury or simply don’t take the opportunity to run these sort of time trials. Fast distance races generally don’t happen without somebody doing a lot of the heavy lifting in the middle (ie Kejelcha Brussels 5k, Cheptegei Florence 5k, etc.), and it’s rare to see that outside of organized record attempts.
Anything under 26:40 is still incredible and the list of guys who can do that in any given year is going to be short, but it’s not accurate to say that running 26:30 is simply a matter of being capable or not. Most guys who can run a time like that probably won’t in a typical season.
Yeah, put another way, I can't see any top Kenyan or Ethiopian runner running a time trial on a high school track for no money. No point to it at all.
It's very true. Kejelcha a great example. Only when he was with Salazar did you see him chasing a great mile (with little monetary incentive) and he got 3:47.0 which really stands up.
It seems it's mostly the NN group (Cheptegei, Hassan, Gidey, Kamworor, Kipchoge) that will set up WR attempts for their athletes and arrange for perfectly organized TTs (recruiting top pacers like McSweyn, Kimeli etc.). And that's only when a World Record is prescribed. They manage Kejelcha, but he'll just race on the circuit as opposed to orchestrated Time Trials.
Kiplimo makes big money on the roads (and targets WRs) and jumps in European meets mostly for the paydays and qualifying marks. His 26:33 if anything seems almost accidental, he was in such great shape he just did it anyway. Aregawi appears to be operating the exact same way. Both are Rosa athletes, so it makes sense.
The Ethiopian trio of Barega, Girma and Wale run in top European meets. They basically decide if they want to go fast and even though they all have the same management, clearly they all want to beat each other and get the most money.
It is a really unique situation to have a fit Woody Kincaid pacing 7,400 of a 10,000 (for free) in an event that was delayed for weather.
Right on...I'd say the biggest issue for Grant is in non time trial races, we really haven't seen the strongest finishes out of him. He can hang in pretty much any race (unlike Woody say), but can he kick with the likes of the top guys? Perhaps this year, the gap has narrowed and he will be up there kicking with them at 5-10,000. If Ethiopia does one-day trials, that should help in limiting Barega and Aregawi to one event. Whether Girma does 5,000 or Steeple will be interesting as it appears to me that he has surpassed Wale and would be someone I'd insert ahead of Fisher.
He was 5th in the Olympic 10k as a 27:11 guy wtf are you talking about?
He was 5th but the Olympic 10K evolved into a 400m sprint, and he lost by 30 meters. The top 3 were strong and only really constrained by their top-end speed at the end. I don't think he has improved 40 seconds in the 10,000 this season (in actuality) if that's the argument you're making. Even if he has being able to run 54-55 at the end of the race will be more important than his PB. Think of Rhonex Kipruto.
Yes, I agree with this analysis. But Grant is coming on strong. He could go 12:45 in the right race, but Jakob may be ready for sub 12:40 this year.
Ya, Grant is coming on strong, but Jakob was already stronger and is also still improving. I wouldn't be shocked with a 5k near 12:40 for Jakob this year if he runs a fast paced 5k. Even a 'slowly' paced 5k Jakob could probably kick to a 12:50 which is about all Grant would do in his best race. There is no pace that Grant could run that would drop Jakob, and Jakob will always kick faster than Grant. In the past couple years Jakob has multiple 3:30 or better 1500's, Jakob's bad day in 1500 is better than Grant's best 1500 speed.
Fisher ran 3:36 two years ago. Grijalva and Gressier have negligibly better 1500 PRs. And this season there's no doubt Fisher could run much much faster than that this year.
They aren't in the same league.
What are you on about?? Fisher has improved in the 5000, and much more so in the 10. Have not seen anything yet in which we'll see him run a 3:34 or quicker. You think the other guys his age have not improved over the last year??
Well he split 4:56 over the last 2k during his 5k. That's 3:57 mile pace following a pretty fast 3k. Id say the over/under point for bookies would be placed ~ 3:32 for Fisher in the 1500.
What are you on about?? Fisher has improved in the 5000, and much more so in the 10. Have not seen anything yet in which we'll see him run a 3:34 or quicker. You think the other guys his age have not improved over the last year??
Well he split 4:56 over the last 2k during his 5k. That's 3:57 mile pace following a pretty fast 3k. Id say the over/under point for bookies would be placed ~ 3:32 for Fisher in the 1500.
Didn't Jager run 3:32 a few years ago? Yeah, based on Grant's 5k at BU, he's probably in about that shape.
Well he split 4:56 over the last 2k during his 5k. That's 3:57 mile pace following a pretty fast 3k. Id say the over/under point for bookies would be placed ~ 3:32 for Fisher in the 1500.
It's very true. Kejelcha a great example. Only when he was with Salazar did you see him chasing a great mile (with little monetary incentive) and he got 3:47.0 which really stands up.
It seems it's mostly the NN group (Cheptegei, Hassan, Gidey, Kamworor, Kipchoge) that will set up WR attempts for their athletes and arrange for perfectly organized TTs (recruiting top pacers like McSweyn, Kimeli etc.). And that's only when a World Record is prescribed. They manage Kejelcha, but he'll just race on the circuit as opposed to orchestrated Time Trials.
Kiplimo makes big money on the roads (and targets WRs) and jumps in European meets mostly for the paydays and qualifying marks. His 26:33 if anything seems almost accidental, he was in such great shape he just did it anyway. Aregawi appears to be operating the exact same way. Both are Rosa athletes, so it makes sense.
The Ethiopian trio of Barega, Girma and Wale run in top European meets. They basically decide if they want to go fast and even though they all have the same management, clearly they all want to beat each other and get the most money.
It is a really unique situation to have a fit Woody Kincaid pacing 7,400 of a 10,000 (for free) in an event that was delayed for weather.
So basically... fast people want to run fast. Wow, who'da thunk.
Yes, I agree with this analysis. But Grant is coming on strong. He could go 12:45 in the right race, but Jakob may be ready for sub 12:40 this year.
Ya, Grant is coming on strong, but Jakob was already stronger and is also still improving. I wouldn't be shocked with a 5k near 12:40 for Jakob this year if he runs a fast paced 5k. Even a 'slowly' paced 5k Jakob could probably kick to a 12:50 which is about all Grant would do in his best race. There is no pace that Grant could run that would drop Jakob, and Jakob will always kick faster than Grant. In the past couple years Jakob has multiple 3:30 or better 1500's, Jakob's bad day in 1500 is better than Grant's best 1500 speed.
Both of you are delusional. Yakob is more likely to retire with that 12:48 pb than to go near 12:40 let alone sub 12:40 this year. If Yakob is smarter than you two he will focus on going sub 3:28 before he even thinks about 12:40, which btw is equivalent to a 3:27.5 but of course for a dedicated miler you'd expect to have a slower 5k than mile time.
Um, pretty sure if you've run the event numerous times and you cant run a 26:30...then you cant run a 26:30. Its not like they've run 12:45 & 58 flat in a half marathon. No, if they cant they cant.
Exactly. "oh well other people could have done it but they didnt try.." No.
If they could they would, end of story. Only time we make special exceptions is when someone has substantially faster PRs in both longer and shorter distances. Kiplimo is a good example. Based on his 3k and 10k times, you can reasonably credit him with a 12:45 or 12:44 5k.
Barega and Kejelcha ran 26:49 with 53-54” last laps at the Ethiopian Trials.
Kejelcha ran 26:49 for WC silver to finish less than a second behind Cheptegei the year before Cheptegei ran 26:11.
Barega ran 12:43 with a 54” last lap and is now the reigning Olympic 10k champ.
Nicholas Kemboi (13:01/1:00:27 PRs) ran 26:30 in ‘03 when he was able to stalk Gebrselassie (26:29) in a failed WR attempt. Abebe Dinkesa (12:55/1:00:03 PRs) ran 26:30 in ‘05 when he was able to stalk Bekele’s 26:28 in that race. These are the two fastest non-winning 10k times in history, now followed by Ahmed’s 26:34.
True 10k time trials are about the rarest thing in world class track. When they do occur, athletes can drop huge chunks from their PBs and run what seem like fantastic, shocking times. Without trying to diminish what Fisher and Ahmed did last weekend, I am extremely confident that Barega, Kejelcha and others could have run 26:33 or better—maybe not this month, but at various times in the last few years. Cheptegei is not 20-30+ seconds better than his nearest competitors.
Interesting you have Chelimo in the second group. He's America's most successful distance runner of the last decade and beat Fisher at both the US Champs and Olympics last year. He's a racer.
Personally, I think there's a top 2 of Cheptegei and Ingebrigtsen who can be reliably expected to win. After them, all the guys you list have about an equal chance of getting in the medals. Even Barega is beatable by other guys in that pack, as shown by his indoor season so far.
Galen Rupp has a bronze and silver at the Olympics, multiple top 10 finishes at a decade worth of World Championships, and 3 top 2 finishes at Marathon Majors....
I thought people would be a bit more bullish on Fisher. You have to think he can run 12:50 outdoors and that puts him in the mix. His close over 1k or 2k is almost irrelevant, the damage is done over the last 400 and I haven't yet seen him hang with the top kickers. But it definitely wouldn't be a surprise if Fisher won a medal in Eugene, I also wouldn't be surprised if he finished 6th or 7th - it's tight at the very top right now
Grant will run sub 12:50 sooner than later, however Jakob closing speed is really good. Would love to see Grant hop in a 1500m and see if his endurance can carry him through. I don't see the WC being a slow race in any means. We'll just have to wait and find out!!
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