Records are being broken - is it ALL shoes?

Why should NCAA athletes start doping in 2021 to get more than 10 sec. faster in the 5k than the typical averages before? Except maybe for relaxed testing (but testing was rather relaxed in college and other sub/almost professional sports before with athletes beyond national top level often dropping from the main testing pools) because of the pandemic, we don't know what should have changed about drug use.

If there were new undectectable drugs every few years we should see frequent bursts in better perfomances or a clear gradual improvement overall for decades.

But we see a rather sudden improvement across the board that coincides with the supershoes on the roads since ca. 2017-18 and on track since 2020 or maybe 2019. Different shoes are a reality, different drugs at the same time as the new shoes (and not before) are pure speculation.

I am neither arguing against the shoe effect, nor about NCAA athletes, nor about a new super drug. I merely point out the fact that testing was significantly reduced during the height of the pandemic. What effect that has (had), remains to be seen.

Right because we know Mo Farah couldn’t possibly have been shady because he didn’t chase world records. And he was 128 lbs so he had to be clean as a whistle. Many of the Kenyans are 125 lbs so they have to be clean. Oh that’s right they are guilty because their skin is darker than the Brits. 

Collegiate runners have indeed been getting faster. But, the statistical flaw is using sub maximal efforts to tell the story.

Let’s use a youth-based explanation to highlight my point.

For illustrative purposes, let’s say in 2011, the average elementary student ran the gym mile in 9:07. Then, let’s say, in 2021, the average elementary student ran the gym mile in 8:07. During that 10-year time period, there were advances in health protocols, sleep-to-energy output understanding, and of course, shoe technology.

Because both 9:07 and 8:07 are far away from maximum human potential, the delta between the two times could be due to a variety of factors.

This same rationale applies to high school and college times today.

Now, the way to reduce the noise is to look at elite times: the runners already operating at 99.9% of human potential. If these runners experience dramatic increases in time overnight, then the spikes would be worth looking into.

And they haven’t: the 10th & 20th best 1500m & 5000m runners in the world are essentially the same as they have been for the last 10-15 years.

Yes. and I had it! But I needed motion control. For me custom orthotics did the trick. I got my first pair the day of the PV competition at the 1984 Olympics. I don't know why I remember that.

Bullcrap ! there is a leval playing field these days but thats only because all western nations are doping their athletes,to compete with the doped africans.Your precious brits are all dopers.Also by your logic olizarenko and kratochvilova would run 1.50 in the 800,on todays tracks with super shoes,and koch would run a 400 in the low 46.

Western nations are the master of arrogance and cheat.

Below are some more numbers. Took top 30 US men's indoor 5,000 times on a regular track from 2010/11 thru 2021/22 seasons. Lists are from IAAF. I think this paints a better picture of the effect of super shoes on times. *Threw out 2019/20 season.

2010/11 - 13:54.5

2011/12 - 13:55.7

2012/13 - 13:52.5

2013/14 - 14:01.8

2014/15 - 13:54.9

2015/16 - 13:59.1

2016/17 - 13:48.0

2017/18 - 14:04.3

2018/19 - 13:48.0

Super shoes introduced

2020/21 - 13:41.8

2021/22 - 13:20.1 (be interesting to see what it is at the end of the season)

There is not really much of a drop in times until we get to the 2020/21 season. Then all of a sudden a 20 second drop from 2020/21 - 2021/22. From 2010/11 - 2018/19 (if we throw out the very slow 14:01 season) there is only a 11 second improvement in times. From 2018/19 - 2021/22 there is almost a 30 second improvement. In 3 years, average times have dropped 30 seconds. There are previous seasons where the current average time for the 2021/22 season was the top time for that season. If I had to guess, I'd say the shoes are worth anywhere from 10-20 seconds in a 5,000 (maybe even more for some types of runners). This is just too much of a coincidence to believe it is anything but shoes. Outdoor 10,000 season is going to be interesting. I think sub 27 for US runners will be a regular occurance (something that was unheard of just 3 years ago).

I did start to work out the numbers for the Mile but there really wasn't much improvement. Although the 2021/22 season is faster it is only faster by a second from previous years. I realize that the season isn't over but I don't think the shoes make as much of a difference in the shorter distances like the Mile and 1500. I think they practically have no effect on the 800.

Here are the US women's times:

2010/11 - 16:20.5
2011/12 - 16:13.9
2012/13 - 16:04.9
2013/14 - 16:09.5
2014/15 - 16:04.7
2015/16 - 15:48.5
2016/17 - 15:53.8
2017/18 - 16:00.7
2018/19 - 15:42.6
2020/21 - 16:02.1
2021/22 - 15:32.8

Not sure what to make of the 2020/21 season. I would think that at least half of those times were in some type of super shoe. I would bet that every top 30 time this season was in a super shoe but it's hard to know for sure.

I think the shoes have an affect, but they are not going to make a 13:20 runner into a sub 13 runner. Times will always improve up to the point of human limitations. There is better quipment today, better tracks, better shoes. Plus there is more knowledge about training, better coaches, runners starting younger , runners getting paid for what they do. Overall , a more professional approach. It's all starting to add up to and we are seeing the results today.

But they did dramatically increase overnight. In 3 years, US men's indoor 5,000 times dropped almost 30 seconds. US women's dropped by nearly the same if you average times from the previous 8 years. I agree that there needs to be more data from the super shoe years. 2 years isn't enough considering that last year the numbers of those wearing the shoes was probably significantly lower than it is today but I don't know.

Yes, there is better equipment - this is the point. There is no better knowledge today than there was floating around 3 years ago yet, US men's and women's average indoor 5,000 times have dropped 30 seconds. A more professional approach? Runners starting younger? Runners getting paid for what they do? How is this different than what it was during the 2017/18 season? They might not make a 13:20 runner sub 13, but they might make a 13:05 runner a 12:53, and a 14:00 a 13:40.

It is without a doubt the spikes. Here's an analysis of performance in the NCAA mens mile and mens 3k. Don't tell me it's the coaching, because there are guys are BS schools running these times.

Number of sub 4 Milers:
2012 33
2013 30
2014 26
2015 32
2016 35
2017 30
2018 30
2019 33
2020 35
2021 38
2022 75

Number of sub 8:00 3kers:

Average from 2012 to 2022 was around 28-30

2022 121

I think there is more knowledge floating around now than there was three years ago. Much of it was always available but it is shared and practiced more now. Jacob Ingebretson’s success has led to a lot of people borrowing those training strategies. More people are being more scientific with heart monitors and blood samples, etc.

I was at the meet in Chicago, Beadlescomb had on the Nike dragonfly spikes

What knowledge is floating around now that wasn't floating around a couple years ago? Jacob I is good, but there have been runners around as fast or faster for decades.

Every generation thinks it has reached the limits of human capability. Every generation up until now has been wrong. I find it hard to believe this generation is the one that's actually right.

Two items...

It would be interesting to break the data down by age as well... if you had 25 Connor Mantz's running in the NCAA, times would no doubt be faster... a bunch of 23-24 year olds are undoubtedly going to be quicker than 21-22.  Did the extra year also increase the average age... a lot of these guys aren't going to step on the track again after college... maybe road race, but I would assume if you're not making the US championships in college, the majority fall off.  The extra year would give opportunities for people to get another year of maturity under their belt.... just a possibility, or perhaps just another variable to consider.

The second, it really only matters when trying to compare runners across time.  Is Rupp better than Bob Kennedy, is Fisher better than Rupp, etc...  technology makes many of these conversations much more subjective.  In running, we enjoy the simplicity of the clock... it's the easiest measuring stick... but if everyone has access to the shoes now, then it's fair... it makes comparing generational talent more difficult, but in the end running 12:53 indoor doesn't win you an Olympic medal... still gotta race.

Everyone with a brain accepts that the spikes are helping. However, there is more to it that is making the effects in the NCAA larger:

1) More fast tracks (banked 200m or oversized)
2) Better time trial setups with pacing and lots of competition
3) Extra 5th or 6th year seniors.

Add it all up and it's making the depth of fast performances even crazier. That being said the wrong conclusion would be to pretend 2015 NCAA Indoors is apples to apples except for the spikes which would make you think the spikes are worth like 4 seconds or something stupid. Remember Johnny Gregorek ran 3:49.9 in non super-spikes before you lose your grasp on reality.