My bet is 0 under 8:30 for 3200m
My bet is 0 under 8:30 for 3200m
carmine9 wrote:
Lenny Leonard wrote:
LV ran 14:06 indoor and 3:59 outdoor. Gotta believe NP's top-40 are 3:58-4:04 guys outdoor and likely 13:50-14:15 guys. That puts them in range to shoot for 8:30.
Why has nobody ever run a sub 8:30 2 mile in HS history other than LV?
For starters, it’s not as sexy as the mile.
I’d my money on Webb & Hobbs breaking 8:30 but they cared about trying to make teams in the 1500m.
Also, German’s 8:34 was a better performance than LV’s. Had German got into a Pre or something, he would’ve run 8:28 at the slowest.
Lastly, Nico ran 7:56 indoor 3k in essentially his only race — and it was his first indoor race ever I believe. Probably had a sub 8:30 easily in a normal year.
With that said, 3 under 8:30 won’t happen, but 4 under 8:40 will.
Forgot Rupp, Rupp 5k splits were 61-4:17-8:09-8:41 3200
Probably would’ve been close to sub 8:30 but 5k was his focus.
Forgot Rupp, Rupp 5k splits were 61-4:17-8:09-8:41 3200
Probably would’ve been close to sub 8:30 but 5k was his focus.
stats and analysis wrote:
carmine9 wrote:
Why has nobody ever run a sub 8:30 2 mile in HS history other than LV?
For starters, it’s not as sexy as the mile.
I’d my money on Webb & Hobbs breaking 8:30 but they cared about trying to make teams in the 1500m.
Also, German’s 8:34 was a better performance than LV’s. Had German got into a Pre or something, he would’ve run 8:28 at the slowest.
Lastly, Nico ran 7:56 indoor 3k in essentially his only race — and it was his first indoor race ever I believe. Probably had a sub 8:30 easily in a normal year.
With that said, 3 under 8:30 won’t happen, but 4 under 8:40 will.
The NP runners will be very fast over 3200/2-mile and they take the distance very seriously.
Nico would have not have broken 8:30 easily. It takes 4:00 capability and to date, his fastest 1500m time is 3:44.
I agree that Webb could have run 8:25 or even faster. Ryun could have done so as well.
These kids are good but right. Now in 2021 there were 123 age 17 and under runners faster than 14:39 and 13 runners in the same age group faster than 13:57 in the world. On a international level and not US high school level they are good but not great.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
The NP runners will be very fast over 3200/2-mile and they take the distance very seriously.
Nico would have not have broken 8:30 easily. It takes 4:00 capability and to date, his fastest 1500m time is 3:44.
I agree that Webb could have run 8:25 or even faster. Ryun could have done so as well.
I don't think easily is the right word, but I think that Nico still had it in him to break 8:30, especially if it was a normal season and not disrupted by Covid. He broke Drew Hunter's 3000 record by a few seconds, and Hunter was in shape to run 3:58 at that time, so I think the record was probably pretty strong.
I don't think I'd say it takes 4:00 capability either. Rupp's HS best was 4:01 I think, but if he gave it a real shot I think he'd be sub 8:30. That said, if you don't have 4:00 capability, you need sub 13:40 capability. Nico's HS best was 13:50, but in a normal year, I think he may have had a better shot.
I do with Webb and Ryun had given the 2 mile a shot in prime fitness though. 8:25 seems reasonable and would've stood for longer than either of their records imo.
like it or not the3200 is the event run in most states for high schoolers. So there is nothing wrong with comparing times in the 3200.
Peach Pit wrote:
SDSU Aztec wrote:
The NP runners will be very fast over 3200/2-mile and they take the distance very seriously.
Nico would have not have broken 8:30 easily. It takes 4:00 capability and to date, his fastest 1500m time is 3:44.
I agree that Webb could have run 8:25 or even faster. Ryun could have done so as well.
I don't think easily is the right word, but I think that Nico still had it in him to break 8:30, especially if it was a normal season and not disrupted by Covid. He broke Drew Hunter's 3000 record by a few seconds, and Hunter was in shape to run 3:58 at that time, so I think the record was probably pretty strong.
I don't think I'd say it takes 4:00 capability either. Rupp's HS best was 4:01 I think, but if he gave it a real shot I think he'd be sub 8:30. That said, if you don't have 4:00 capability, you need sub 13:40 capability. Nico's HS best was 13:50, but in a normal year, I think he may have had a better shot.
I do with Webb and Ryun had given the 2 mile a shot in prime fitness though. 8:25 seems reasonable and would've stood for longer than either of their records imo.
Yeah, “easily” was a poor choice of words. But a 7:56 already worth what 8:32-33? So unless you feel like he maxed out in his only effort, indoors, 8:29 wouldn’t have a been a stretch ~ 4 months later.
olyrun 2 wrote:
These kids are good but right. Now in 2021 there were 123 age 17 and under runners faster than 14:39 and 13 runners in the same age group faster than 13:57 in the world. On a international level and not US high school level they are good but not great.
Tell us something we don't know. Kiplimo ran 13:19 when he was 15,
stats and analysis wrote:
For starters, it’s not as sexy as the mile.
I’d my money on Webb & Hobbs breaking 8:30 but they cared about trying to make teams in the 1500m.
Also, German’s 8:34 was a better performance than LV’s. Had German got into a Pre or something, he would’ve run 8:28 at the slowest.
Lastly, Nico ran 7:56 indoor 3k in essentially his only race — and it was his first indoor race ever I believe. Probably had a sub 8:30 easily in a normal year.
With that said, 3 under 8:30 won’t happen, but 4 under 8:40 will.
I think when you look at Nico's shape senior year, it's hard to deny that he would've been under 8:30. A CR at NXN in bad conditions, absolutely crushing a field full of studs that in a race that was expected to be close, breaking Drew Hunter's 3k record by 3 seconds in his first ever indoor race, and then getting the rug pulled out from under him with Covid , but still throwing down a 13:50 5k even though he wasn't able to see his teammates or coach, all points to him being in sub 8:30 shape. Not to mention placing 4th in NCAA XC after his senior year.
This season, his brother broke his 3-mile record, one of his teammates ran faster than Nico did at CIF, 2 seconds behind GF's record, and last year his other brother ran 8:43 as a sophomore, but was still third at Woodbridge and CIF. I think those three have shown that they're at least close to, if not at Nico's senior level at this point in the season, and they still have a shot to break the 5k XC record this weekend.
Honestly, I think the biggest shock that could come from this team is none of them breaking a record this year. Whether the 3k, 3200, 2 mile, or 5k, I'd be shocked if none of those records are broken.
stats and analysis wrote:
Yeah, “easily” was a poor choice of words. But a 7:56 already worth what 8:32-33? So unless you feel like he maxed out in his only effort, indoors, 8:29 wouldn’t have a been a stretch ~ 4 months later.
Totally agree, and I think it'll be easier to know what's in store once they've run an indoor race, but with 3-4 runners of that caliber in the same race, I think 8:29 isn't a stretch for several of them, especially since Lex was better at the mile and 2 mile last year than his brother.
Entries below, Gavin Sherry is only doing eastbay, edwards shut his season down, Harrison is focusing on indoors.
That we're even discussing potentially four runners, let alone from the same school, breaking 8:40 indicates how much better hs distance has continued to improve since the days of Webb, Ritz, and Hall twenty years ago. I would even put money down on one of those NP kids breaking 8:30 in a fast race, and possibly one of them breaking the 4 minute barrier. Sky is the limit for these kids and they are only getting faster.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
stats and analysis wrote:
For starters, it’s not as sexy as the mile.
I’d my money on Webb & Hobbs breaking 8:30 but they cared about trying to make teams in the 1500m.
Also, German’s 8:34 was a better performance than LV’s. Had German got into a Pre or something, he would’ve run 8:28 at the slowest.
Lastly, Nico ran 7:56 indoor 3k in essentially his only race — and it was his first indoor race ever I believe. Probably had a sub 8:30 easily in a normal year.
With that said, 3 under 8:30 won’t happen, but 4 under 8:40 will.
The NP runners will be very fast over 3200/2-mile and they take the distance very seriously.
Nico would have not have broken 8:30 easily. It takes 4:00 capability and to date, his fastest 1500m time is 3:44.
I agree that Webb could have run 8:25 or even faster. Ryun could have done so as well.
Several people have gone sub 8:30 and not broken 4. I can think of a couple of guys I ran with in college who are examples. I'm pretty sure Nico could go faster than 3:44 if he specifically trained for it as is the case for many others. One's PR in the mile is not a definite.
I agree and would suggest the opposite is also true in that sub 4 milers (especially in hs) don't necessarily have the stamina to break 8:30 for the two mile. I'm not so sure Webb could've broken 8:30 but Ryun probably.
get real ppl wrote:
Where can we find entries for this race? A lot of fast kids this year not being talked about because of these newberry kids. Rheinhardt harrison, gavin sherry, and josh edwards are just a few off the top of my head I can name who could be top in the US not running in Cali.
Harrison shut down his season to prepare for indoor track, opting out of both RL and EB. Same with Edwards. Sherry is running at Eastbay (Footlocker).
Of the T25 or so guys in the country, here is who will be at RL by Milesplit ranking:
#1 Riley Hough
#3 Colin Sahlman
#4 Leo Young
#5 Lex Young
#8 Zane Bergen
#9 Aaron Sahlman
#10 William Zegarski
#11 Jackson Barna
#17 Gary Martin
#23 Isaac Teeples
#25 Shane Brosnan
ragingclue wrote:
I agree and would suggest the opposite is also true in that sub 4 milers (especially in hs) don't necessarily have the stamina to break 8:30 for the two mile. I'm not so sure Webb could've broken 8:30 but Ryun probably.
Ehhh...with special conditions I think we may have seen even more people do it or at least more run under 8:40. High school racers are not privileged to many pacers. Luke V. was dragged along at the Prefontaine Classic for how many laps and had someone running with him after he was dropped. No way he breaks 8:30 without those conditions. Nico Young jumped into last place and was dragged along when he went 7:56 in that 3000 in the Armory. To me that's why German Fernandez...we were all robbed when he did not run the mile or two mile at Pre. He was a monster all on his own. So it's also a conditions thing. The NP guys have the advantage of running together. This situation is unlike anything we have ever seen and a lot could be different from last spring in the order they cross the finish line this spring in both the mile and two mile. As a matter of fact, I'm expecting it to.
And why would you think Webb could not have done it if he put the time into it and that's the underlying factor anyone has to consider when evaluation someone's potential? I have a feeling he could've went out in 4:17 and put on a show with his :47 quarter speed on the back end of his second mile. I think that people forget Webb ran 27:34 in the 10,000 pretty much just screwing around so the potential for "stamina" was there. He has arguably the greatest range on the track for any runner in US history.
dustdevil wrote:
ragingclue wrote:
I agree and would suggest the opposite is also true in that sub 4 milers (especially in hs) don't necessarily have the stamina to break 8:30 for the two mile. I'm not so sure Webb could've broken 8:30 but Ryun probably.
Ehhh...with special conditions I think we may have seen even more people do it or at least more run under 8:40. High school racers are not privileged to many pacers. Luke V. was dragged along at the Prefontaine Classic for how many laps and had someone running with him after he was dropped. No way he breaks 8:30 without those conditions. Nico Young jumped into last place and was dragged along when he went 7:56 in that 3000 in the Armory. To me that's why German Fernandez...we were all robbed when he did not run the mile or two mile at Pre. He was a monster all on his own. So it's also a conditions thing. The NP guys have the advantage of running together. This situation is unlike anything we have ever seen and a lot could be different from last spring in the order they cross the finish line this spring in both the mile and two mile. As a matter of fact, I'm expecting it to.
And why would you think Webb could not have done it if he put the time into it and that's the underlying factor anyone has to consider when evaluation someone's potential? I have a feeling he could've went out in 4:17 and put on a show with his :47 quarter speed on the back end of his second mile. I think that people forget Webb ran 27:34 in the 10,000 pretty much just screwing around so the potential for "stamina" was there. He has arguably the greatest range on the track for any runner in US history.
What makes me think Webb could have run 8:25 is that a pair of 4:12s for a guy that ran 3:53, seems very doable. That would be the way to go rather your big negative split strategy.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
What makes me think Webb could have run 8:25 is that a pair of 4:12s for a guy that ran 3:53, seems very doable. That would be the way to go rather your big negative split strategy.
64s and then dropping the 56 works out. But this is all guess work as we havent seen many sub 355 HS run a fast 2 mile.
The best part od this is that it is possible that the best distance guys are Sherry or Harrision over 1500-2 miles. Hopefully they all stay healthy and we get a couple of epic races this spring.