Gwalkerruns wrote:
1974 commonwealth games better. Two broke the world record and five others within three seconds. Also ran rounds and virtually all ran other events already. Check it out.
Agreed. Ironically, it was in Christchurch! (albeit 9 years before Nick was born)
Nick Willis is wrong. He also had that “spot on” prediction for the 1500 final.
Appreciation?? wrote:
Soy What? wrote:
So 1.5 seconds away from 3:29.9...you need help with your math there bud.
LOL at all the "Hocker is just a 3:35 guy" trolls still out there in the bushes, throwing little branches and hooting like the faceless monkeys they are.
But it is actually funny, though. Downright hilarious. I will crack up every time I see someone referencing that meme. Because so many kept saying he's a 3:35 guy before the Olympics and all the sensible people knew better.
He was a 335 guy before the Olympics. He's a 331 guy after the Olympics. All the sensible people give people credit for they have achieved. He may very well run 329 in the future. However its nonsensical to call him a 329 guy, because as it stands he isn't one.
No, he was a 3:33 guy before the olympics, bc his mile pb from february was more impressive than his 1500m pb right up until the olympic final.
He came in as a 3:33 guy, came out as a 3:31 guy. Saying otherwise is just bs.
Now, seeing as to how we're all in the mood for ridiculous extrapolation and overestimation of people's abilities, here's my predictions:
Jakob is currently in shape to beat the 1500m WR and Mile WR 😎
while 3:28-3:31 is the new or is NOW the new championship 3:32-3:34...
it is a big leap to go to 3:26.
will it happen? yes.
when? who knows...
however the metric mile hoarde isnt going to start popping enmass sub 3:26s
Do not underestimate that record.
however.... the 3:25 is coming at some point...
and it doesnt have to be JI...
but instead will likely be someone who is currently 13-15 ...
Jakob is beating the world record and Hocker's lifetime PR will be 3:28.
Sopa de Sabadell wrote:
High hopes wrote:
Willis has a habit of making big calls that don't pan out. Kessler to make the team, Hocker to win a medal, etc. I'll take this with a pinch of salt
This. Willis is not an authority on predictions anymore for me. Surprising, how someone of his caliber can get this many things wrong.
He's not Nostradamus. It is one thing to get it right about the ability of athletes, about which he is absolutely correct. But its another to bet on the outcome of a race, where tactics, nerves etc are all outside the control of the predictor. Look at tipping competitions on rugby etc, the experts, former players etc are never the winners.
Just to add that LRC is becoming dominated by know it alls who have never had real world experience, nor common sense. Most threads show potential, great topic, then literally five posts in it becomes hard to read, with people arguing against each other, insults hurled, instead of actually adding value.
Total waste of time.
Soy What? wrote:
What people need to realize is that Nick is evaluating COLE'S CURRENT LEVEL. In other words, rewind two weeks and INSTEAD of running the Olympic rounds and finals, put him in a paced Diamond-League style race to evaluate his optimal fitness. 3:29 is very reasonable in such a situation. It DOES NOT mean that if he runs Prefontaine now, post-Olympics, he will run 3:29.
As far as the whole 3:29 topic goes, I will take my chances with the guy who has already been there (and without the magic shoes/track)
Agreed except for the part where you imply Willis didn’t run 3:29 on a magic track.
He ran it at Monaco.
Trackfan55 wrote:
Aaleby wrote:
If you were to believe the words of Jakob after the race; he had quite more left in the the tank.
Lagat said when he ran 3:26 it was the best he’d ever felt and when he ran the AR of 3:29 he felt awful. Lifetime bests & all time performances (which jakobs certainly was) are often the pinnacle of a career for a reason. Like how many times have you or a buddy PR’d or ran really well and instantly felt like you could go quicker? Happens all the time right!
I agree with this sentiment. I wish I would have known I was running my PR because I would have enjoyed it more. That was one of the first things Alan Webb said after running the AR in the mile. "I think I can go faster".
Soy What? wrote:
Gwalkerruns wrote:
1974 commonwealth games better. Two broke the world record and five others within three seconds. Also ran rounds and virtually all ran other events already. Check it out.
Agreed. Ironically, it was in Christchurch! (albeit 9 years before Nick was born)
Thanks for the rec. This was a good race to watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3BhcZZYTQQOozmaKappa wrote:
Gonna call cap on that one. Thats major american copium, Hocker is not in shape to run sub 3:30. His SB before the Olympics was 3:33 if you convert his mile from February. He spent less time training this year and more time racing than the rest of his competition, it's remarkable he managed to lower his PB to 3:31 in the final given all this. You could not have reasonably expected Hocker to do better than he did.
Its gonna take at least another training cycle before Hocker can go sub 3:30.
Agree with this. His 3:31 was taking advantage of a fast race and people pulling him to a PR. I think he will continue to improve and become a medal threat and capable of sub 3:30. But he isn't there yet.
I'd like to see Kessler there with him. It would be sweet to see the US with two legitimate medal contenders in the 1500. I was in high school when our best hope was Gabe Jennings. So this is sure a big improvement.
Summer of 2006 wrote:
Soy What? wrote:
Agreed. Ironically, it was in Christchurch! (albeit 9 years before Nick was born)
Thanks for the rec. This was a good race to watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3BhcZZYTQQ
I saw the race. Incredible to watch, from a tactical and competitive point of view . I couldn't believe Bayi could race like that , and Walker almost took him from 20m back. Also the destruction of Ryun's '67 Colosseum Relays wr - which I also saw as a kid. Inspiring races.
Call It What You Want wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
If Hocker is in "3.29 shape" he will have improved by a bigger margin in a year than Katir, who got his own special doping thread, as the "biggest doper of all time". But Hocker is American.
Are all of your takes laced with negativity and hatred? You know this is a message board that is based in the US with its largest readership and contributors based right here in the good ol' USA. Most people will be less suspicious of those they know or actively root for and support. It has far more to do with homerism and absolutely nothing to do with nationality, race, color or any other stupid reason or descriptor that you and many others try and assert. It's just disgusting how some love to stir the pot of racial division constantly. People need to stop with all of the race baiting.
Last point. I think anyone that makes huge jumps in their performances and PBs are going to have some cloud of suspicion. There are just too many examples of busted dopers at this point to not have some doubts about everything these days, but many need to stop stating it as a matter of fact that someone is doping. Those of you that do that I can only assume you wouldn't want to be misjudged or falsely accused of anything. So why treat others with that level of disrespect?
Race baiting? Why is Katir accused of doping here and Hocker isn't, when he has made the bigger jump in a year?
Hocker ran at 3:32.2 'pace' indoors (56.6/lap for 3 laps = 14.15/100m) before he was a 13:18 guy. One solid race outdoors following his strength block and he should have been in 3:31 'shape' heading to Tokyo.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Call It What You Want wrote:
Are all of your takes laced with negativity and hatred? You know this is a message board that is based in the US with its largest readership and contributors based right here in the good ol' USA. Most people will be less suspicious of those they know or actively root for and support. It has far more to do with homerism and absolutely nothing to do with nationality, race, color or any other stupid reason or descriptor that you and many others try and assert. It's just disgusting how some love to stir the pot of racial division constantly. People need to stop with all of the race baiting.
Last point. I think anyone that makes huge jumps in their performances and PBs are going to have some cloud of suspicion. There are just too many examples of busted dopers at this point to not have some doubts about everything these days, but many need to stop stating it as a matter of fact that someone is doping. Those of you that do that I can only assume you wouldn't want to be misjudged or falsely accused of anything. So why treat others with that level of disrespect?
Race baiting? Why is Katir accused of doping here and Hocker isn't, when he has made the bigger jump in a year?
20-year old U.S. distance runner v. 23-year old Moroccan/Spanish distance runner. Keep your obsession with race out of it.
Well I already explained it, but I could see how after reading a couple of lines you saw red and then didn’t see anything else. The simple explanation is that many and maybe most people suffer from homerism. This is common in all sports with most fans (especially Dallas Cowboys fans ;-) J/K. The typical fan has a very difficult time being objective when it comes to a team or athlete they root for and support. I don’t have supporting stats but I would think that most are rooting and supporting a team or athlete that they have the most exposure to or feel a more personal connection with. Keep in mind that context is the key. Remember this is a running message board in the US and in the US running community Cole has quite a social media following. He can been see in vlogs regularly on YouTube and is a very likable person. As a result he is "connecting" with a lot of this message board's audience and thus has a lot of “fans” on this site. So there you go.
Also, I think you missed my second paragraph where I indicated that anyone making substantial jumps in performance is going to have some cloud of suspicion around them in this day and age. At the same time I also don’t believe in outright accusing someone without something more than circumstantial evidence. A jump in performance is not enough evidence in and of itself to warrant a higher degree of suspicion. It’s circumstantial at best and again context is the key!
Trackfan55 wrote:
I think one thing that people are really overestimating is the emotional affect of the olympics. I remember after rio 2016 people were debating how quick Clayton Murphy would run and I was adamant he wouldn’t PR again - that race was emotionally and physically perfect for him, the olympics has that impact.
Take into account that the track being arguably the fastest in the world and the fact that we’re seeing that pacing isn’t hugely important in the 1500 (it’s becoming very similar to the 800 in that regard) and I don’t think we’ll see Kerr or Jakob run substantially quicker in Monaco.
I also understand Jakob looked like he had more left in the tank but sometimes that’s just how it looks when you run your best, plus again the emotional high of winning olympics
Yeah I agree. I think most of the field ran their absolute hardest, it's a super fast track and the setting of the Olympics makes you dig deeper than any diamond League.
Jakob will go faster, he looked comfortable. But Kerr was probably running close to his limit, so was the Kenyan and Hocker. They may well PB in the future but this race was definitely one to get the most out of an athlete, similar to London 2012 800m.
I think with Hocker, Kerr, Wightman and Cheruiyot, Jakob knew that he needed the race to be fast to get that gold. He was prepared to take the race beyond what anyone else could do that day and goad Cheruiyot into keeping the pace fast. Very smart running.
Soy What? wrote:
Gwalkerruns wrote:
1974 commonwealth games better. Two broke the world record and five others within three seconds. Also ran rounds and virtually all ran other events already. Check it out.
Agreed. Ironically, it was in Christchurch! (albeit 9 years before Nick was born)
I was there that day.
It really wasn't a great race, just a case of wondering if Bayi was going to last
The rest were just scrambling to catch him.