Men's Olympic 10,000 Official Discussion Thread - Haile owned the 90s, Bekele the 00s, Farah the 10s. Who will rule the 20s?

michiganrunner55 wrote:

Jzs wrote:

I’ve looked on: NBC , USA, NBCSN & the Olympic Channel.. I don’t see where the M-10,000m is being broadcast.. zip zero. Where is this showing up ..?!

It’s not on…instead 1964 episode of Gilligans Island is on

10x round the island. Now THAT I would pay to watch. Who ya got? I say:

Men

1. Professor. Muscular build

2 Gilligan - not an ounce of fat

3. Howell. Way back but no way the skipper would finish

Women

1. Maryanne - of course

2. Luvvy /Ginger tie. Walk under parasols.

That 68-61 type surging is old school and very effective.

That 26:49 was 13:23/13:26. In the later part of that race they recovered and then hammered the last 4 laps.

At Doha Kipruto, Cheptegei and Kwemoi, after Mandi lead the first 6 laps in 64/65, started their little surge fest. There were no 68-61’s, but I bet most of those laps are 31-33/32-34. You can see the accordion effect on each lap. Lap by lap you can see runners going out the back. Between these three they’re constantly trading the lead. The E’s covered every move, because if they didn’t they would lose ground. You can see this for 15 laps. The three leaders did not allow for any recovery. With four laps to go Cheptegei just squeezed it down making each lap faster, dropping all by Kejelcha.

I believe this subtle, but constant surging is the way to take kicks away. Surging 68-61 for 8 or so laps then recovering for four laps then hammering the last four will not be allowed by K’s and U’s.

I could be totally wrong and the E’s can get after it from the start like they did in the Doha 5k.

One of my favorite things to watch in the Doha 10k was watching the Italian Crippa cross the finish line. He had just run 27:10 and he is totally elated with his time. It just shows performing well can be almost as gratifying as winning.

aksdlakjd wrote:

michiganrunner55 wrote:

It’s not on…instead 1964 episode of Gilligans Island is on

10x round the island. Now THAT I would pay to watch. Who ya got? I say:

Men

1. Professor. Muscular build

2 Gilligan - not an ounce of fat

3. Howell. Way back but no way the skipper would finish

Women

1. Maryanne - of course

2. Luvvy /Ginger tie. Walk under parasols.

I LOLed.

Agree with your picks, too.

michiganrunner55 wrote:

rojo wrote:

Our first distance preview for Tokyo has been published. Can one of the two Ugandan studs make history? It's hard to believe but Uganda has never won a distance medal on the track of any color at the Olympics.

The race is absolutely loaded and a total stud will leave with no medal.

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/07/2020-olympic-mens-10k-preview-who-will-follow-in-the-footsteps-of-legends/

I predict winning time 26:53…top American 27:29

If the winning time is 26:53 Fisher and Kincaid will be 10-15 seconds back. If the winning time is 26:33 fisher will be 20 seconds back, Kincaid 28

Julien Wanders...how could the Swiss federation let him in when he is training like a maniac even this week. No signs of any tapering - doin 10 + 11 km yesterday ”easy” 4.00 min/km.

11 k today (as far )

He is protecting himself from (the usual championship) failure with this last minute training .

Is this out of character for Julien?

marwar wrote:

Julien Wanders...how could the Swiss federation let him in when he is training like a maniac even this week. No signs of any tapering - doin 10 + 11 km yesterday ”easy” 4.00 min/km.

11 k today (as far )

He is protecting himself from (the usual championship) failure with this last minute training .

eh i don't see a huge problem with this. his 10,000 pace is around 2:45/KM. So he's running 1:15-20 per KM slower for what are, for him, short runs 2x, getting a bit slower each time, doing some strides. It's definitely a taper. Wanders peaks at around 200-210KM per week. This week he's at 75KM and probably will end up around 120KM after the race and recovery runs after.

4:00/KM is easy pace for a lot of these guys. That's what Kipchoge does his recovery runs at.

birdbeard wrote:

It would have been an easy pick last year, but with Cheptegei just ever-so-slightly off his game this season, I can't ignore Kiplimo's solo 26:33 and Barega's 26:49 with that 53 second close.

Final prediction:

1. Selemon Barega, 26:43.3

2. Jacob Kiplimo, 26:44.1

3. Joshua Cheptegei, 26:44.3

4. Yomif Kejelcha, 26:44.4

5. Rogers Kwemoi, 26:46

6. Berihu Aregawi, 26:49

7. Mo Ahmed, 26:53

8. Rhonex Kipruto, 26:58

9. Weldon Langat, 27:03

10. Grant Fisher, 27:09

Agree with much of the order but not first five within 3 sec

Predictions:

1. Barega. Fast. In form. Strong enough to stay in the mix.

2. Kiplimo. Outrageous times. Young and looking to improve.

3. Cheptegei. Still in ok shape. Unreal prior 2 years I cannot ignore.

The others all look great. Something about the 20-and-21-year-olds makes me think they might improve a lot and surprise everyone.

Can't understand why Barega's getting slept on so much. Beat Kejelcha in the Ethiopian trials and can definitely close a race very quickly. The Ugandans are probably slight favourites over the Ethiopians but +450 is still great value.

Kiplimo +225

Kejelcha +250

Cheptegei +275

Barega +450

Pediction

1. Kiplimo

2. Kejelecha

3. Berega

4. Cheptegei

5.kwemoi

6. Rhonex

7. 3rd Ethiopean

8. keniciad

birdbeard wrote:

"It would have been an easy pick last year, but with Cheptegei just ever-so-slightly off his game this season, I can't ignore Kiplimo's solo 26:33 and Barega's 26:49 with that 53 second close.

Final prediction:

1. Selemon Barega, 26:43.3

2. Jacob Kiplimo, 26:44.1

3. Joshua Cheptegei, 26:44.3

4. Yomif Kejelcha, 26:44.4

5. Rogers Kwemoi, 26:46

6. Berihu Aregawi, 26:49

7. Mo Ahmed, 26:53

8. Rhonex Kipruto, 26:58

9. Weldon Langat, 27:03

10. Grant Fisher, 27:09"

-------------------

Provided they all bring their best 2021 shape (I am therefore NOT counting Cheptegei´s WR from last year since he has clearly been far from that time in 2021) I predict:

1. Kiplimo

2. Barega

3. Kejelcha

4. Ahmed

5. Kipruto

6. Cheptegei

7.Aregawi

8. Kwemoi

I don´t think we can ignore that Kiplimo has run by far the fastest time this year. We also know how competitive Kiplimo is:

Beating Barega in a sub 12:50 5000m, beating Jakob in a sub 7:30 3000m and beating Kandie in a very fast WC HM.

I also think we must credit Ahmed for his fast 5000m in DL Florens. 12:50 equals to a 10000m in 26:40!

Kipruto is a dark horse: If he runs up to his best he is a medal contender.

Live link anyone. link to BBC sport?????

The winner is likely an Ethiopian and the most gifted of them all is Selemon Barega, who is as talented as Kenenisa Bekele. Barega wins if he has the mental toughness of Kenenisa. It should be fun.

Impossible to call between Barega, Kiplimo, Cheptegei.

I do think KIplimo has the ability to win, and the range to cover any type of race situation. He takes the win by circa 2-3 seconds ahead of the other podium finishers.

If it was 12 months ago, Cheptegei would take it easily, but although he is always in the picture, he hasn't convinced this year of being the world's best and I see Barega splitting the Ugandans.

1. Kiplimo - 26:49.9

2. Barega - 26:52.9

3. Cheptegei - 26:53.5

There are four Americans in the final, likely at least one will make top 8.

Dreamed-up attempt at the race prediction:

The Ethiopians to try the surge as mentioned correctly above, but with less concerted effort than the trials. Hence the times not being faster.

Race of 4 parts - first part a steady solid pace keeping everyone honest, second the attempt to splinter by the surges from Ethiopians (maybe more subtle than the Trials), third the Ugandans stop meeting the surge and towards 7000-8000m the Ethiopians lose a little confidence in it as a tactic to shake Kiplimo and Chei and the pace settles a little ( a second or two per lap quicker than the slowest lap whilst 'surging'), then last quarter the Ugandans start really winding up. Last km of this quarter, Kiplimo is in front with only Barega of the Ethiopians left, and Cheptegei behind having the engine to survive the surges but also go with Kiplimo. The gaps come and go between each but it finishes in this order, Chep very close as the surging has left Barega with not quite enough to catch Kiplimo.

Sound reasonable?

I grabbed Kiplimo for the win with pretty good odds as an Ethiopian was the favorite at the book I used.

Have to wait for this inane relay to finish up. Maybe 15 min. more? Schedule had them going off 10 minutes ago.