What are the odds no American is in the 1500 final?

This is the same crowd that said Hocker wouldn't even win NCAA's after Nuguse ran 3:34. Hocker and Centro will cruise into the final with ease, with Centro and Hocker going 5th and 3rd, respectively. After watching Kerr, an LRC darling, run a slower final 300 in a 1500 5 seconds slower than Hocker and Centro ran, I have no doubts that Hocker and Centro could run 3:30-31 right now.

Qatar, Morocco, World Rankings. Come on. Nearly all these “fast guys” haven’t won medals, and many havent even made a global final.

Hahahaha how was 2016 a fluke for Centro but not 2012? In 2012, you had Makhloufi win kind out of nowhere (he was the 6th ranked guy coming into the race), with freaking Manzano and Iguider snagging the other medals. How was 2012, which had no prior medalists claim medals, not a fluke but 2016, which had 3 prior medalists medal, was a fluke?

An OG final being run in 3:50 is a fluke.

We will just have to wait and see. If I'm wrong now I'll be right here saying I was wrong. If I'm right I'll be right here saying I was right.

There are literally DOZENs of 1500m runners with the same capability and fitness as our 3 guys. To say otherwise is just not factual. They are not 3:30 guys. They are 3:33-3:35 guys. To say otherwise is just not factual. Can 3:33-3:35 guys make the final? Yes. Can 3:33-35 guys win a medal. Yes. Are there dozens of other guys in the same boat playing out the same scenario? Yes.

Alan

They are in the mix yes Alan. One guy has won Olympic Gold, and the other has closed a 3:35 1500 in 12.2. Neither has been accomplished by anyone else (save Makhloufi if he shows up). That is some reason for excitement. Garcia-Romo and Engels are generic 3:33-35 guys. Centro and Hocker have unique skills. Centro is a 13 flat 5k runner and tactical master. Hocker has authored some of the fastest finishes at a very young age with a 3:50 mile that indicates his PB has some revising. Nuguse ran a solo 3:34- no easy feat ask McSweyn.

Harambe wrote:

Centro is a lock - 100% final I would bet all my money on it.

Hocker 75%. Kick is too deadly. Unless the semi is ~3:31 or faster he's 100% in

Nuguse 35%

Everything Centro has done since 2016 has shown it was a fluke. He is the Josey Barthel (1952 gold medallist) of this era. Beating him at the US trials says nothing about whether any runner is going to be in the mix at Tokyo.

People who are saying tim or jakob should just go out and run 3:28 are incredibly dense. Clearly youve never run at a meet with three rounds of 1500s and probably never even run trials and finals at a conference meet. To just go out after two rounds w no rabbit and just rip sub 3:30 is not something that is just easily done. IF (and thats a pretty big if) someone trids to rip as hard as they can it will go 3:32 or 31 at the fastest and cole and centro will both be right there

This thread is laughably dumb. The team is Centro and two college kids - no sh!t they didn’t go to Europe during this he pandemic and run fast times.

Harambe wrote:

Centro is a lock - 100% final I would bet all my money on it.

Hocker 75%. Kick is too deadly. Unless the semi is ~3:31 or faster he's 100% in

Nuguse 35%

Centrowitz seems ready. I agree. Close to 100 %. Not so sure about this Hocker. He is young and extremly promising. It will be tough heats, he has to be "lucky". There is a lot of runners coming to Tokyo who is able to run fast. But a man for the future.

ShilohDoesntCare wrote:

Y'all need to stop talking about 2016. That was a massive fluke caused entirely by whatever Kiprop was inexplicably doing there. The race was won in a time slower than the special Olympics if I'm not mistaken. That race is indicative of nothing and was unprecedented. Every single example shows that it takes 3:30 ish fitness to medal at the Olympic 1500 and you hang onto the one time in forever that someone did not demonstrate that fitness prior in the season, not saying Centrowitz didn't have that in him on that day no one can truly know that but in a somewhat honest race I very much doubt he would have been close to the medals.

I just wish I could be as lucky as Centro.

In 2011, he had a massive fluke to win bronze at Worlds. His best time that year was 3:34.

In 2012, another massive fluke to come 4th at the Olympics (which I think you'd agree counts as "close to the medals"), despite an SB of just 3:31.96.

In 2013, yet another massive fluke to win silver at Worlds. His SB was 3:33.

And finally, in 2016, the most massive fluke of all to win gold at the Olympics, once again with an SB of 3:34.

How does one guy who's clearly not good enough to be close to the medals rack up so many massive flukes?

As for this year, I'd give him a littler better than even odds to make the final, but unlikely to make the top six. But who knows, he might get another massive fluke!

i think a lot of people dont realize how impressive hockers kick at the trials really was. He closed in 12.2 to run 3:35. In Rio Centro closed in 12.8 to win gold in a 3:50 race. If a12.8 close is good enough to win gold in an all time slow sit and kick race surely someone who went 12.2 to close a 3:35 race will be competitive.

1500/5Kfan wrote:

People who are saying tim or jakob should just go out and run 3:28 are incredibly dense. Clearly youve never run at a meet with three rounds of 1500s and probably never even run trials and finals at a conference meet. To just go out after two rounds w no rabbit and just rip sub 3:30 is not something that is just easily done. IF (and thats a pretty big if) someone trids to rip as hard as they can it will go 3:32 or 31 at the fastest and cole and centro will both be right there

You do know that the 2019 WC was won in 3:29.26 and that the WC record is 2:27.65, right?

Armstronglivs wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Centro is a lock - 100% final I would bet all my money on it.

Hocker 75%. Kick is too deadly. Unless the semi is ~3:31 or faster he's 100% in

Nuguse 35%

Everything Centro has done since 2016 has shown it was a fluke. He is the Josey Barthel (1952 gold medallist) of this era. Beating him at the US trials says nothing about whether any runner is going to be in the mix at Tokyo.

Hard to agree -- I respect your opinion though.

Centro has been an 3:30-3:33 guy with outstanding tactics and top-5 finishing speed. That's not a fluke.

We see so many milers fail to position themselves well for the last lap. That doesn't make those with good tactics 'flukes' -- it makes them more talented.

Someone with 3/10 tactics but 10/10 fitness will win races about as much as someone with 10/10 tactics and 8/10 fitness, basically.

I think all three Americans will make it to the final. Don't be naive, heats are a sit and kick fest and Hocker, Centro and Nuguse are very well trained for this and some 3:32-3:33 guys will miss out on the final, losing to Americans.

If Tim doesn't run, Jakob and McSweyn can kiss their medals goodbye, since they will get eaten by Americans and Brits. And no African will medal if it's not Tim.

The 3:27 was paced for the greatest 1500m runner ever with team tactics. The 3:29 is the exception not the norm. It’s never happened in the Olympics. In 2000 it was paced (badly). In 1984 Steve Scott randomly paced it fast resulting in a fast time. Safe bet: if Tim runs 3:29-3:32 race…otherwise 3:33-3:39 race likely with McSweyn/Jakob pushing.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Safe bet: if Tim runs 3:29-3:32 race…otherwise 3:33-3:39 race likely with McSweyn/Jakob pushing.

Agree. In that case Tim, Jakob and McSweyn are a lock.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

otherwise 3:33-3:39 race likely with McSweyn/Jakob pushing.

In this scenario it is everybody's race and Kerr / Wightman / Hocker / Centro / Nuguse / Lewandowski have better chances than the rest.

Doesnt seem logical to call it a fluke when the guy who won had already finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 1st (indoor) in his global championships. The way he won was certainly abnormal but as one of the most pedigreed championship racers in the field, it wasn't odd for it to be him breaking the tape.

I'll admit that his subsequent seasons havent been as good, but he does currently appear to be on track w/ his podium years in 2021. I would be absolutely shocked if he doesn't make the finals and once there, if he's not in perfect position at the bell because thats who hes shown time and again to be.

And Kiprop running like a goon wasn't a fluke either. Despite being by far the fastest of his era, he had a history of running horrible races (and also sometimes absolutely dominating) and in that particular race, he got totally outplayed. Go back and watch his specific tactics in the race. From 12th to 2nd twice and an absurd burst down the backstretch to get into position. By the time the real racing started he was cooked.

I think it's slightly more likely none make it than two make it. But extremely likely one makes it.

0-34%

1-45%

2-30%

3-1%

Armstronglivs wrote:

Everything Centro has done since 2016 has shown it was a fluke.

But what about everything he did before 2016?

2011 - WC Bronze

2012 - Olympic 4th

2013 - WC Silver

2015 - 3:30.40

2017 he wasn't healthy at WC

and he did run 3:32 in the 2019 WC finals.

Peter Rono in 1988 was a fluke. Talk about one good race.

Makhloufi didn't have any good results between his 2012 Gold and his 2016 Silver. His 2012 Gold looked like a fluke until 2016 came around.