Hocker can Shush all he wants, but his chance of going are not high

I went to bed because I live on the East Coast but got up first thing to watch this. I can't believe this doesn't have a black-page or isn't getting more hype on the site, I guess its because it was so late? You are seeing the future of American distance running and our best hope for a medal in the distance events in Cole Hocker. He has a gold medal kick and served up humble pie to the cockiest distance runner in the game.

rojo wrote:

The OP is incorrect. Hocker is 100% going to be on the team due to his world ranking. It will get a huge boost after tonight.

We will pay out $100,000 if his world ranking is not high enough to get him on the team ($10,000 per year for 10 years).

Tonight's race should be worth 1271 ranking points (1171 points for the time + 100 bonus points for the win). That will raise his world ranking by a ton as it will replace his lowest scoring event (1120). So he gains 151 points (divided by 5) so 30 points.

He'll move up to #26 in the world rankings. He'll literally be the first guy into the Olympics on world ranking. 38 guys have the standard. He'll be in at #39 and they take 45. His ranking is higher than everyone in the world who doesn't have the standard which makes sense as he's run 3:35 low twice.

PS it’s a dud bet too - his world ranking was already “high enough before the race to get him on the team” - being eligible and being selected are two very different things. There’s currently 11 American men eligible for selection.

Biding his time wrote:

I went to bed because I live on the East Coast but got up first thing to watch this. I can't believe this doesn't have a black-page or isn't getting more hype on the site, I guess its because it was so late? You are seeing the future of American distance running and our best hope for a medal in the distance events in Cole Hocker. He has a gold medal kick and served up humble pie to the cockiest distance runner in the game.

+100

This is the first Olympics with the new qualification system. Previously there were A and B qualifying times. Countries could have only one athlete per event if they had B qualifiers but up to three if they were all A qualifiers. The qualifying times for A qualifiers was much slower than the current automatic qualifying times.

World Athletics wanted to change the way people qualified for World Championships and Olympics. They wanted to recognize competition as much as race times. Area championships and Diamond League races had extra points. They wanted to have as many people qualify by their world rankings as they would by their times and they set what they thought was very tough qualifying times to achieve that.

Unfortunately, their scheme of having people qualifying by rankings was undermined by the amazing increase in track performances across the world. (Obviously, because everybody trains harder and smarter than they did before the last Olympics :)

Craig Engels is a very good athlete but Cole Hocker earned his place on the team through World rankings. I am sorry but I think anyone who believes that Engels has a better chance at a medal than Hocker is seriously deluded.

Rememberer wrote:

Redneck Hero goes home DEVESTATED!

Well considering he was out socializing after the meet with friends, at the Wild Duck, I'm not getting hammered, just being a good sport and having a good evening, with his friends and fans, I'd say it wasn't going home very devastated at all. Which is something that the poor sports of this forum can't say.

Craig is a classy guy.

RIP

Mullet

Hard to get excited about a 52 low closing lap when our 5k guys did that in oppressive heat and the 10k closed basically just as fast.

These guys are faster?

Nick Willis was one of Hocker’s haters that got silenced.

https://twitter.com/nickwillis/status/1403730847845568517?s=21

If they have discretion and the ability to do so I hope they take Cole as he is the Trials winner. The next two at the Trials have the Olympic Standard so they go too. At least that's the way Olympic selections used to be made. Every country could send one athlete and a couple more for a total of three if the others have the Olympic Standard.

I like Nick and think he has had a great career and also a big fan of Hobbs, but Nick should fade away gracefully and STFU. Cole is at another level than his boy Hobbs right now. This may change, but right now, Cole is the 👑.

TooperCeare wrote:

No he definitely is going idiot

Someone that writes the above is not allowed to call someone else an “idiot”.

I'm confused on this ranking stuff.

I checked this out and Hocker on the World Athletics site is listed as #42 in the World, based pretty much on a 3:50 mile he ran indoors a few months ago and hasn't approached since. He's also ranked behind several Americans.

What are the rankings based upon? Hocker has only raced Americans, mostly collegians so his strength of schedule isn't really impressive. He's also ranked behind multiple guys from different countries, for example there are four Australians ahead of him four Brits, a few Canadians. He won the trials, but that's in no way a win against a top flight international field. Rojo awards him big points for that, but who really makes the decision?

What exactly on his resume will move him up in the rankings to make the team if he doesn't have a qualifying time? (which he could get if runs in Bislett next weekend)

I'm not gonna call a guy a hater for supporting his protege.

In this race, it wasn't the last lap that was fast; it was the last 200.

Just for emphasis: Cole is not "getting a pass," nor is this a discretionary decision like deciding what NCAA teams get at-large bids to nationals. He won the selection race and has (or will have) a world ranking that clearly qualifies him under the rules. This isn't some USATF bush-league, seat-of-the-pants, "let's let Shelby compete anyway" decision. When WA changed the rules, they intended rankings to be the primary means of qualification for the Olympics.

You're conflating history a bit here. Olympic standards have been around to prevent embarrassing situations for a very long time (and each sport handles them differently). Historically, there were A and B standards for athletics (countries could send up to 3 with the A or only one with the B). One additional wrinkle was that every country was entitled one Olympian per sex, regardless of the standard. So if you're some tiny country who can't qualify anyone, you can send a guy to run a three-hour marathon in the Olympics.

In Rio, they scrapped the B and went with a single standard. Not sure the reasoning, but it prevented situations like the US had in the past, where the winner of an event at the Trials might have the B, and one guy behind him had the A. B would be provisionally on the team, but if anyone else managed to run an A before the qualifying window closed, the B guy would get bumped because policy is to send the largest team possible.

That system has been entirely replaced by the hybrid standard/ranking system. Anyone who qualifies (up to three total) is in, but the time standards are much, much tougher, so world rankings were supposed to be the main way in. This wasn't so much because it was thought to be a better or more fair system for the Olympics, but rather to improve other races by getting athletes to compete head to head more often.

In this vein, one change I'd love to see would be WA making a requirement that countries are required to select the winner of their national meet who has the standard, and perhaps the runner up as well. Selection committees are vile things, contrary to the spirit of athletics. It's the one sport where someone's opinion of your ability isn't supposed to matter; you run the time, on the day, and the clock tells the world how good you are.

If he is busted for doping and gets a 4 year ban and does not go, will Letsrun pay off?

Does Hocker get in if he had finished in 2nd place?

Did Centro ease up so Hocker got the win and the bonus points?

What are the rules that will decide if Hocker goes or not? Can someone post a link, or provided a simple explanation? I had assumed it was a simple cutoff time, but that does not appear to be the case.

CopperRunner wrote:

bhuhgg wrote:

He won’t get out of the first round. You Oregon jock sniffers are insane

He just won the US title, against the reigning gold medalist. Tf you on about?

the reigning gold medalist who ran a 3:50. W is a W but still

Bound4Glory wrote:

What are the rules that will decide if Hocker goes or not? Can someone post a link, or provided a simple explanation? I had assumed it was a simple cutoff time, but that does not appear to be the case.

The rules are laid out in the "Selection Procedures – 2020 Olympic Games – Men’s and Women’s Track and Field." Unfortunately, the rules are very badly written, so you need to read carefully!

Here is what Rules say (I reformatted and added the numbers to make things clearer) are the "Track and Field Selection Criteria":

1) "The top three place finishers in each event at the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials...provided they have met the 2020 Olympic Games qualifying standard...will self-select themselves via head-to-head competition."

2) "If, after the close of the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials, there is a place...that has not been filled, USATF will enter an athlete...based upon

"a) their rank order of place finish at the 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials, and who

"b) are on the July 1, 2021 list of World Athletics Qualified Athletes."

a + b = after the Trials, they go down the list of finishers and pick the first person who is on the WA Qualified Athletes list. Since Hocker seems to be on that list, he will get picked over Engels.

Rule # 2 rules out chasing times after the Trials, since it says any spots not filled when the Trials end will be fillled using the World Athletics Qualified Athletes List.

You can find the rules by clicking on the "2020 Olympic Games Selection Procedures: Men’s and Women’s Track & Field..." link on the USATF Trials homepage:

You are completely wrong.

Hocker is going, deal with it.