Think About It
The OP is incorrect. Hocker is 100% going to be on the team due to his world ranking. It will get a huge boost after tonight.
We will pay out $100,000 if his world ranking is not high enough to get him on the team ($10,000 per year for 10 years).
Tonight's race should be worth 1271 ranking points (1171 points for the time + 100 bonus points for the win). That will raise his world ranking by a ton as it will replace his lowest scoring event (1120). So he gains 151 points (divided by 5) so 30 points.
He'll move up to #26 in the world rankings. He'll literally be the first guy into the Olympics on world ranking. 38 guys have the standard. He'll be in at #39 and they take 45. His ranking is higher than everyone in the world who doesn't have the standard which makes sense as he's run 3:35 low twice.
PS it’s a dud bet too - his world ranking was already “high enough before the race to get him on the team” - being eligible and being selected are two very different things. There’s currently 11 American men eligible for selection.