Is Clayton Murphy the GOLD MEDAL FAVORITE in Tokyo?

Sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Watch that video yourself a time or two: starter gun at 0:13, Saruni and Korir pass 400m at 1:06 (53s), then finish at 1:58 (52s).

Now what Mr. THOUGHTSLEADER? I think an apology is in order.

No apologies, using YouTube timestamps for precise splits...please.

Depends on how well his cycle is going and if he thinks he can beat the testing afterwards.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

To the first point I used a stop watch from 400 to 800. It's not a 52-second last lap. It's 51.4 or 51.3. It includes running wide, bumping and so on. You can futz with avoiding decimals to try to back your asinine point, but 53-52 it was not.

Who were you timing? Saruni passed the 400m line in exactly 53.6 and finished in 1:45.81, which makes his last lap no faster than 52.

Sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Who were you timing? Saruni passed the 400m line in exactly 53.6 and finished in 1:45.81, which makes his last lap no faster than 52.

I've timed it 3 separate times on that video from when he crosses the finish line with 1 lap to go. It's been 51.3 or 51.4 every single time. 53.6 doesn't even make sense based on the clock being at 55 so soon after the finish line.

NYDCRunner1 wrote:

No he is no. Nigel Amos, Giles of the UK and a few others will beat him easily. I wish him well.

Giles won’t make the Oly final. Murphy might not win Gold but no one will beat him “easily”.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Who were you timing? Saruni passed the 400m line in exactly 53.6 and finished in 1:45.81, which makes his last lap no faster than 52.

I've timed it 3 separate times on that video from when he crosses the finish line with 1 lap to go. It's been 51.3 or 51.4 every single time. 53.6 doesn't even make sense based on the clock being at 55 so soon after the finish line.

I timed it several times and must say that we are both right. Saruni does indeed run his last lap in ca. 51.3. But he also ran his first lap in ca. 53.6, which adds up to 1:44.9 as opposed to official 1:45.81. Something is wrong with the video or with their timing. I will load the video into Adobe Premiere to get exact measuring later this evening.

Well, I guess i have to apologize. After loading the video into Adobe Premiere and measuring Sarunis time up to a single frame i got these numbers:

12.22 - start

1:06.26 - 400m mark

1:58.02 - finish line

Therefore splits as follows:

54.04 - 1st lap

51.76 - 2nd lap

1:45.80 - total time.

THOUGHTSLEADER, you were right.

DC Wonk wrote:

It would be a major victory for Murphy to medal. Olympics ain’t the same thing as OT. You have to be mentally and physically ready for an unpredictable final.

Murphy has shown (exception of last worlds) to be prepared for any scenario. Look at his rounds here at the OT (even though not much depth). If he's ready he'll be there with 200m to go and wait for the last 70-100m and rip.

Sopa de Sabadell wrote:

Well, I guess i have to apologize. After loading the video into Adobe Premiere and measuring Sarunis time up to a single frame i got these numbers:

12.22 - start

1:06.26 - 400m mark

1:58.02 - finish line

Therefore splits as follows:

54.04 - 1st lap

51.76 - 2nd lap

1:45.80 - total time.

THOUGHTSLEADER, you were right.

All good. I mean I guess at the genesis of this whole argument is that these were competitive performances from the top 3 Kenyans. I'd still favor Murphy over them, but I think all 3 of the Kenyans are in 1:43 shape. Saruni has a great kick and Rotich is a proven competitor. We'll see what Korir can do now that he's racing better.

I think Murphy will recover from the rounds better and be more fresh for the final. Due to his 1500m training.

Vunn off wrote:

NYDCRunner1 wrote:

No he is no. Nigel Amos, Giles of the UK and a few others will beat him easily. I wish him well.

Giles won’t make the Oly final. Murphy might not win Gold but no one will beat him “easily”.

Of the Brits, Rowden looks to be the best racer. Giles ran one great indoor 800 and an impressive 1500 (3:33) but his 800 form outdoors looks mediocre. I think he'll make the British team behind Rowden and Webb but probably flake out in the semis in Tokyo.

Murphy is in with h a short at gold but at this point, I think you'd do just as well by drawing names out of a hat to predict this one

Isn't the bigger question here how his recovery goes from his hamstring injury? Per the LRC article:

“You can say I executed it to perfection. It was one tough last six months, especially the past eight days. It was an individual 1:43, but far from an individual accomplishment,” said Murphy, who said the Thursday before he left for Eugene he had a “pretty serious hamstring strain” that had allowed him to run just 13 miles since then — including warmups, cooldowns, and races.

The Men's 800m round 1 doesn't start until July 31st. If his injury ends up being serious this could cost a lot of fitness over the next 5.5 weeks.

Vazquez has zero races in 2021. And Amos is injured and hasn't broken 1:49 in two years. How did these guys make your top six? You've got to evaluate these runners current fitness. And Dobrek much higher than 10th, my friend!

As of last weekend, Dobek looks like a serious medal threat.

Murphy’s splits - 51.67, 51.50

http://runohio.com/index.php/news-features/news/97-university-of-akron-cross-country-alumni-supporter-update

Amos isn’t seriously injured and has scary 400 and 1,500 times this year, and WE KNOW what his upside is.

I’ll admit that I have no idea if Vasquez is fit, but his balls to the wall running style should get him to the final.

How is Dobek any different than Jewett right now though? They both have a single sub-1:44 ever. The guys above them have much more accomplished resumes and you have to believe they will be peaking at the Olympics.

Dobek has a calm, assassin-like kick like Murphy, and is unperturbed by traffic. His ENTIRE 800m career has been 17 races at the national or world level and he has won 7 of them. No sign of newbie jitters or yips.

Here he comes from sixth place at 500m to causally dismember a Diamond-League caliber field.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PaQwkQ5Iyg

JBaller33 wrote:

Trackerati wrote:

Vazquez has zero races in 2021. And Amos is injured and hasn't broken 1:49 in two years. How did these guys make your top six? You've got to evaluate these runners current fitness. And Dobrek much higher than 10th, my friend!

Amos isn’t seriously injured and has scary 400 and 1,500 times this year, and WE KNOW what his upside is.

I’ll admit that I have no idea if Vasquez is fit, but his balls to the wall running style should get him to the final.

How is Dobek any different than Jewett right now though? They both have a single sub-1:44 ever. The guys above them have much more accomplished resumes and you have to believe they will be peaking at the Olympics.

well if you want to bet, you have to look at amos, and if he's fit.

if you could watch like one milestone workout these past few weeks, you'd know.

the kenyans will have 3 guys that can metal.

without knowing their current form, its a total crap shoot.

with murphy you know.

then you have some dude, that you have no info on, and he's like setting records in practice.

there is too little data to predict.

amos is next level, and if he's on his A game, it's over.

you have a real sprinter with aerobic ability.

remember he ran 141 in 2019

he's like 27, so that is the edge of the cliff.

Agreed. If Amos goes off, Murphy can't beat him. I like Murphy's chances a lot though, because he can close in 25-flat every single time. Hoppel is really good tactically and will be in the right position, but he would be better served if the final is closer to 1:44 as opposed to under 1:43. Rotich and Tuka are real consistent, and Rotich has that sub-1:43 upside. Those are my clear top 5.