Hot Take/Rumor: Hobbs Kessler Turning Pro (very soon)

Surprised that Mary Cain isn't mentioned more when trying to make sense of Hobb's high school accomplishments and situation.

Seems like he gets along with his pro teammates right now. And in the recent 'very nice track club' youtube post, I get the impression he isn't missing out on any social aspects of life either. In fact, it looks like he is having a ton of fun training and racing. My (meaningless) opinion:

- cash in, go pro

- take online electives through a community college to get it out of the way in a stress free way so it doesn't impact running

- after the World Champs in Eugene (and once Covid is further in the rearview) take a fall semester in-person

Or, don't go to college until his professional career is over.

No you wouldn't unless you are a billionaire. He can get a long term contract worth $1M today plus college. Do hear how dumb that sounds? What if another employer offered you $1M more in pay over the next 10 years as compared to what you make today to do a similar job?

TheRealScotty wrote:

Wise Old Man wrote:

Kessler is younger, but he’s not yet faster. 3:50 is faster than 3:34 and Hocker ran 3:53 and then 7:46 one hour later, closing both in 25. I don’t think Kessler can manage that sort of feat....yet. Pro running sounds like a boring and lonely existence for an 18 yr old. He should go to Oregon, win some national titles and team titles, have some fun, and he can still race pro in the off-season. He’ll still get paid in a couple of years. He will have saved money on school and have a degree too from a great college.

Wise words from Wise Old Man. A degree is important too. Run in college for two yrs, sign a lucrative contract and finish degree requirements in spare time. We should all be so lucky!

Not the right decision. Wejo has it right. Hobbs is very marketable now. Runners only have so long to make money as a runner. There are always pros and cons to any decision, and being one who loved college life, I understand the lure of that for most people, but he is faced with a real situation...hundreds of thousands of dollars and probably more vs. going to college to get a degree in 4 years that will likely not get him anywhere close to even just $100,000 per year four years from now (and realistically more than than with potential redshirts). Why go to college for 2 years anyway? He'd still have to finish for the degree.

Extraordinary athletes...extraordinary people, shouldn't necessarily follow the same path as those less extraordinary.

We can't look at Kessler and say "we should all be so lucky" when talking about something that is beneath his abilities. Yes, that would be great for the rest of us to go to college for 2 years and have a pro career making potentially millions afterwards, but he's beyond that level now. No need to wait for 2 years later.

kw1954 wrote:

I'm still not convinced.

He's run fast but has not won.

If he were my kid, I'd advise him to go to college, win some NCAA titles and get a taste for real racing and have some fun.

If he then proves to have the chops and the hunger, then turn pro.

Just my opinion.

Your advise is bad.

As a parent, you should talk about the pros and cons with your kid, make sure he/she fully understands the pros and cons and then let him/her make the decision on what to do. It's their life. Even at just 18 years old, a parent should not dictate what a kid does in college or beyond, ESPECIALLY when, as is the case here, college wouldn't cost a dime.

Bob Kessler wrote:

No you wouldn't unless you are a billionaire. He can get a long term contract worth $1M today plus college. Do hear how dumb that sounds? What if another employer offered you $1M more in pay over the next 10 years as compared to what you make today to do a similar job?

Yeah, this is correct. If even the bare minimum of what we can assume based on the rumor is true, financially it would be best for him to take this opportunity. College can wait.

So, to be clear, I'm for whatever he wants to do...I ASSUME that if he goes pro, then that is what he wants to do. I am all for that decision, and of the two, I DO think it is the better option. If though, he says he wants to experience college life, then I totally get that.

What I am NOT behind is anyone being critical of him if he decides to turn pro. That is the more logical of the two decisions.

Would be fair to mention Mary Cain. Females DO typically have a bigger chance of getting slower through high school and after than men do though.

I would say some to look at for help in making a decision are:

Lukas V. - The bike crash ruined his career. He got some money before it happened because he had turned pro.

German F. - He was highly touted coming out of HS and went to college. Didn't live up to expectations.

Another consideration is Hobbs' love of climbing. There's no way running can match the challenge, thrill, and camaraderie of climbing. He could also get climbing sponsors.

I do not favor high school distance runners going pro. They have not been medal contenders, unlike some sprinters. 3:34.36 is fantastic for a high schooler or a collegiate. But collegiates in the summer have run 3:30-31 and medaled, and Nuguse just ran 3:34.68 solo. Tanner ran 3:34 as well. A college aligns you with thousands of fans, provides a team, an education, room and board, and coaching/facilities worth one hundred thousand to four hundred thousand dollars. It gives you competition in three seasons, including the xc season that is invaluable. For pros, it can be difficult to find races nearby sometimes.

But Kessler would still raise his value, now that many are paying attention, by smashing Alan Webb's mile record on national television. A sub-3:50 would also get attention. I did not see even the category of running or the story on espn even under "Olympic Sports." The best schools for milers are El Doret, the Very Nice Track Club, Oregon, and Washington. NAU would orient him in the 5000m direction.

I suspect he'll be a very good championship racer in the future, given his great speed at the end of workouts already.

One more thing: do not take online classes. They are terrible for everyone but college graduates and graduate students, and even for them, the online classes are worse than in person. We have just been through a huge experiment in online education and it failed miserably. It was a complete disaster.

Remember when Manzano won an Olympic medal and then lost his contract with Nike and was offered peanuts from the other companies?

We don’t pay for performances in T&F, we pay for potential. Hobbs’ stock is super high now and that’s why he’ll cash in. Could it be higher in a year? Maybe, but doubtful. Will it be higher in four years when he’s done with college? No chance.

barely old enough to drive wrote:

Weird this obsession LRC has with going pro. Most pro contracts are worth peanuts. This isn’t the NBA. I made more in my first job than all but a very few US runners do in a year. I wouldn’t have skipped college for that if it was an option. It is not like 4 years of college is going to greatly change his financial future one way or another.

I see someone like Drew and I just feel sorry for them.

You feel sorry for someone who made $4 million dollars by the time h e was 28?

If I was Kessler or if I was advising him, I"d tell him, go to college and go pro. Why can't he go to NAU or Michigan, hang with the guys and gals on the team, practice with them,e tc and just race separately? I think the college experience is amazing.

The pro stuff is tough if you are solo.

Brojos are wrong again, just clueless outsiders! Nobody has millions to offer right now and no one would be smart to offer prior to the OT. Any offer he would take prior to the end of the year would be limited by timing, probably heavily incentive-laden.

Kessler would be best advised to go to college for a year, win a couple titles as a true frosh and let all these companies clear expiring contracts and then field offers. It's better to have 8 bids than 3 if not fewer.

Rojo, there was a day when you said someone shouldn’t consider going pro if they couldn’t win an ncaa title. Have you changed your tune on that silly rule of yours?

He definitely could get a 10 year deal of $100k per year plus college. What if he falls while rock climbing and gets permanently injured? No contract ever then.

the alpha special wrote:

Ghost of Jason Rexing's Trainers wrote:

I sure do, simply because I know history. Don't you?

kessler just ran 3:34 at age 17. At age 17, what time did Jim Ryun run? That's what I thought. As the kids say: SCOREBOARD

Kessler is 18.

It's silly in many way to compare runners 50 years apart. In pure time terms, Kessler is better. As you say, just look at the time.

That said, Jim Ryun was beating the Olympic Champ at a big event, while in HS. He made the Olympic Team while a Junior. In those terms, Ryun was better (and better than Webb as well).

He set the WR (in two events) at age 19 and was ranked #1 in the world.

All this was done on dirt tracks and in spikes which today would not be worth wearing.

None of this is said to take away from Kessler. He's a unique and great talent with a (hopefully) great future ahead which we should be eager to follow. I don't even want argue Ryun was better.I just wamt to point out other facts that the kids might want to consider. Ryun was great. He was a unique talent that I'm glad I was able to experience (even if I was a little kid at the time). I look forward to seeing if Kessler can become a top ranked international runner as well. Not just be the latest of great HS runners. I hope he'll have a better career than Webb and he certainly seems capable of it. Time will tell.

Mary Cain's problem was moving across the country to join a program that was not a good fit. If Hobbs goes pro now I assume he will just keep doing what he is doing.

Cain got slow. There was nothing she or a coach could do to stop it.

Word on the street is NIKE pursuing a pro group to evolve with Warhurst/Hobbs/Ferlic as pillars - WTC (Warhurst Track Club) with complete build-up of men's and women's teams to address and attack MidWest talent.