Why does anyone really care about this subject? The Africans will likely get at least half the medals from 800 to 10000m. So these Australians, Brits and Americans are sort of in the minor leagues in comparison, with a few notable exceptions.
Why does anyone really care about this subject? The Africans will likely get at least half the medals from 800 to 10000m. So these Australians, Brits and Americans are sort of in the minor leagues in comparison, with a few notable exceptions.
JBaller33 wrote:
Brazier and Hoppel are going 1-2 in the 800 in the Olympics in some order and nobody is touching them. Sorry UK.
As far as the 1,500 goes, the UK team may very well be better than the US team. Kerr, Wightman, Grice, and O'Hare mean a very good runner is not going to make the team. Australia team will be really good too. McSweyen and Hoare would be strong contenders to make it through the heats, and I think McDonald could too if he focuses on the 1,500. The difference though, is that Hoare is the only one between the two countries that I could see medaling. Cheruiyot and Makhloufi have insane finishing speed. Hoare is the only one that is even close to that.
For the US, is Centro healthy? Will Engels race smart? What will Teare do against international competition? The US very well could completely flame out in the 1,500. What if the US team is Engels, Gregorek, and Prakel? Woof. Engels is the only one of them making the final.
On the flipside, the US team still has a crazy high ceiling. Centro is reigning Olympic champion and is one of the smartest racers around, tailor-made for the heats. Engels has the closing speed necessary to medal. So does Teare.
Ferguson Cheruiyot Rotich begs to differ. And Teare? He's not gonna run the 1500 at Trials, surely he'd opt for the 5000m. The UK team will def be better, but you forget Yorks, Wynne, Kidder, Thompson, Blankenship, Hocker, Colby Alexander even
There's a bunch of 3:34-3:36 depth in the US
The US had 2 of the 5 medalists in these events in the last Olympics, including the champion in the 1,500. They had a different runner win the 2019 world championships in the 800, and another runner finished 4th who hasn't even tapped into his potential yet. The UK had a legit medal contender in the 800, and Australia has one in the 1,500. Frankly, it's exciting to see new countries contending in what seems like a pretty wide open field.
jabouko wrote:
JBaller33 wrote:
Brazier and Hoppel are going 1-2 in the 800 in the Olympics in some order and nobody is touching them. Sorry UK.
As far as the 1,500 goes, the UK team may very well be better than the US team. Kerr, Wightman, Grice, and O'Hare mean a very good runner is not going to make the team. Australia team will be really good too. McSweyen and Hoare would be strong contenders to make it through the heats, and I think McDonald could too if he focuses on the 1,500. The difference though, is that Hoare is the only one between the two countries that I could see medaling. Cheruiyot and Makhloufi have insane finishing speed. Hoare is the only one that is even close to that.
For the US, is Centro healthy? Will Engels race smart? What will Teare do against international competition? The US very well could completely flame out in the 1,500. What if the US team is Engels, Gregorek, and Prakel? Woof. Engels is the only one of them making the final.
On the flipside, the US team still has a crazy high ceiling. Centro is reigning Olympic champion and is one of the smartest racers around, tailor-made for the heats. Engels has the closing speed necessary to medal. So does Teare.
Ferguson Cheruiyot Rotich begs to differ. And Teare? He's not gonna run the 1500 at Trials, surely he'd opt for the 5000m. The UK team will def be better, but you forget Yorks, Wynne, Kidder, Thompson, Blankenship, Hocker, Colby Alexander even
There's a bunch of 3:34-3:36 depth in the US
The other US runners you mentioned simply are not threats to medal and probably not even threats to make the final. The UK guys could at least make the final. I mention Teare because it's clear he has a really high ceiling, even if he may not make the team. I didn't mention Hocker, because he's not better than Teare right now, although he is one to watch for the future.
I noted those men because you put down Prakel and Gregorek.
IMO its Centro and Engels well above the rest - and I agree, the rest may not be medal threats or even finals threats, but the depth is solid.
I do think Hocker is better than Teare over the mile - or at least more suited to it, given his negative split 800m time. Teare is a 3k-5k guy imo. But I agree, both have high ceilings.
LA 2028 Teare would be 28 years old, Hocker 26. I think they CAN run 3:31/12:54 and 3:29/12:59 by that time.
why not? Stewy MacSweyn is running 3:30.5/7:28/(presumably sub13 soon)/27something
jabouko wrote:
I noted those men because you put down Prakel and Gregorek.
IMO its Centro and Engels well above the rest - and I agree, the rest may not be medal threats or even finals threats, but the depth is solid.
I do think Hocker is better than Teare over the mile - or at least more suited to it, given his negative split 800m time. Teare is a 3k-5k guy imo. But I agree, both have high ceilings.
LA 2028 Teare would be 28 years old, Hocker 26. I think they CAN run 3:31/12:54 and 3:29/12:59 by that time.
why not? Stewy MacSweyn is running 3:30.5/7:28/(presumably sub13 soon)/27something
Yea, I kinda picked Prakel and Gregorek at random based on past US championship performances. Gregorek is really the only one who has shown anything on an international stage, but he has shown no consistency. Again, wouldn't be shocked that Teare and Hocker could finish 3-4 at the trials. And yes, I definitely think Teare should run the 1,500. Kid has some serious finishing speed and I think he has equal potential in the 1,500 and 5,000 (certainly, he is not a 10,000 guy though). 1,500 US field is overall weaker right now. And you could squint and see him kicking to a medal in a slow-paced 1,500 final. He would get run out of the race in the 5,000.
But, Hocker and Teare have big time potential in 2024 and 2028. Future for US 1,500 and 5,000 looks bright.
Check out this thread:
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=10450824
trying to predict how they may do outdoors
and agreed
this season has Centro 2011 energy for Hocker/Teare
Hunter could make the Aussie 1500 team, a tall order given that its StewyMac, Ramsden, Gregson, Hoare, MacDonald in contention
jabouko wrote:
and agreed
this season has Centro 2011 energy for Hocker/Teare
Hunter could make the Aussie 1500 team, a tall order given that its StewyMac, Ramsden, Gregson, Hoare, MacDonald in contention
And I think that's the point of this thread. Australia and UK will probably be tougher teams to make than the US team for a 3:33 to 3:38 guy. US still probably has more potential to medal.
JBaller33 wrote:
"For the US, is Centro healthy? Will Engels race smart? What will Teare do against international competition? The US very well could completely flame out in the 1,500. What if the US team is Engels, Gregorek, and Prakel? Woof. Engels is the only one of them making the final.
On the flipside, the US team still has a crazy high ceiling. Centro is reigning Olympic champion and is one of the smartest racers around, tailor-made for the heats. Engels has the closing speed necessary to medal. So does Teare."
-------------------
Seen with neutral glasses from Europe these expected performances from Centro and Engels are COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC!
Centro WAS ((years ago) a good championship runner culminating with his Gold in Rio in a slow race. But Centro has never been a winner in the fast DL races. Last time he won was in DL London 2018 in 3:35 in a 1500m without the top guys.
As stated in other posts it must be very uncertain if Centro can qualify for the US 1500m team since he has no fast times since Doha (high #:32). IF Centro should qualify it is very unlikely that he will reach the final (he was qualifying as one of the last in Doha). IF he should reach the final he has no chance of medalling if the top guys (Timothy, Jakob, Wightman, McSweyn, Hoare and (perhaps) Makhloufi show up in top shape.
Engels: Craigh has been smart enough to win 1500m races against the best US runners BUT he has NEVER won anything internationally. Look at his performance in the 1500m final in Doha! When the big boys go out fast Engels has no weapon to fight against it.
And Engels went backwards last year both in the 1500m and the 800m.
As stated before:
Only Teare and Hocker seem to have the potential to go 3:30 or faster which seems to be necessary to have a chance to medal BUT medalling will possibly not happen this year.
Most of you here have no clue. Look at Kejelcha. He has run 3:47.01 INDOORS. Because he knows indoors is faster and he has little chance to medal at 1500m, he runs longer distances. The same will be true for Teare and Hocker, who are 3:50.39 and 3:50.53 INDOORS, respectively. Look at Johnny Gregorek, running 3:49.98 INDOORS and no medal threat. Look at mediocre milers like Galen Rupp and Sam Prakel running 3:50xx INDOORS. Get a clue people.
Jimmbo wrote:
"Why does anyone really care about this subject? The Africans will likely get at least half the medals from 800 to 10000m. So these Australians, Brits and Americans are sort of in the minor leagues in comparison, with a few notable exceptions."
--------------------------
At the moment there are not many fast (and stable) 1500m runners from Africa!
From Kenya there is only Timothy (provided he is not going to crumple as his trainingspartner E. Manangoi did in 2019).
And perhaps Ronald Kwemoi. The late El Keniano´s great young hopes G. Manangoi and Justus Soget have disappointed. G. Manangoi disappeared after Doha where he didn´t reach the final. And Justus Soget is only running mediocre times at the moment.
Etiophia:
World Recordholder in the Indoors 1500m Samuel Tefera hasn´t produced any fast times since his WR. He seems to fade over the season and he didn´t qualify to the final in Doha.
Barega, Wale and the other steeple chaser will probably not run the 1500m at the Olympics. At least not Barega since it is almost impossible to run both the 1500m and 5000m. IF the steeple chasers double the 1500m and the 3000m st. they could be the best African bet apart from Timothy.
But it has to be seen if they can beat the other top guys (such as Jakob, Wightman, McSweyn and Hoare).
objectiveobserver wrote:
JBaller33 wrote:
"For the US, is Centro healthy? Will Engels race smart? What will Teare do against international competition? The US very well could completely flame out in the 1,500. What if the US team is Engels, Gregorek, and Prakel? Woof. Engels is the only one of them making the final.
On the flipside, the US team still has a crazy high ceiling. Centro is reigning Olympic champion and is one of the smartest racers around, tailor-made for the heats. Engels has the closing speed necessary to medal. So does Teare."
-------------------
Seen with neutral glasses from Europe these expected performances from Centro and Engels are COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC!
Centro WAS ((years ago) a good championship runner culminating with his Gold in Rio in a slow race. But Centro has never been a winner in the fast DL races. Last time he won was in DL London 2018 in 3:35 in a 1500m without the top guys.
As stated in other posts it must be very uncertain if Centro can qualify for the US 1500m team since he has no fast times since Doha (high #:32). IF Centro should qualify it is very unlikely that he will reach the final (he was qualifying as one of the last in Doha). IF he should reach the final he has no chance of medalling if the top guys (Timothy, Jakob, Wightman, McSweyn, Hoare and (perhaps) Makhloufi show up in top shape.
Engels: Craigh has been smart enough to win 1500m races against the best US runners BUT he has NEVER won anything internationally. Look at his performance in the 1500m final in Doha! When the big boys go out fast Engels has no weapon to fight against it.
And Engels went backwards last year both in the 1500m and the 800m.
As stated before:
Only Teare and Hocker seem to have the potential to go 3:30 or faster which seems to be necessary to have a chance to medal BUT medalling will possibly not happen this year.
I don’t think you understand that it takes a fairly significant amount of aerobic strength to compete in championship races in the 1,500. You run 3 races in 5 days. Then, you have to run an extremely fast last lap at the end of the 5 days. Centro has, historically, been able to do this despite not fast times in the Diamond League time trial type races. As Americans, our big concern is whether he is healthy. Engels has better last lap speed, but yes, he has not put it together on the international stage.
Wightman does not compete well in the big competitions. 3 races over 5 days will wear on him, and he does not have the great finishing speed that you need. Makhloufi is the only 800/1,500 type runner that is widely successful in the championship 1,500s, and it is because his closing speed is crazy fast. I think Hoare has an excellent chance though because of his strong aerobic base and ability to close fast.
JBaller33 wrote:
Brazier and Hoppel are going 1-2 in the 800 in the Olympics in some order and nobody is touching them. Sorry UK.
As far as the 1,500 goes, the UK team may very well be better than the US team. Kerr, Wightman, Grice, and O'Hare mean a very good runner is not going to make the team. Australia team will be really good too. McSweyen and Hoare would be strong contenders to make it through the heats, and I think McDonald could too if he focuses on the 1,500. The difference though, is that Hoare is the only one between the two countries that I could see medaling. Cheruiyot and Makhloufi have insane finishing speed. Hoare is the only one that is even close to that.
For the US, is Centro healthy? Will Engels race smart? What will Teare do against international competition? The US very well could completely flame out in the 1,500. What if the US team is Engels, Gregorek, and Prakel? Woof. Engels is the only one of them making the final.
On the flipside, the US team still has a crazy high ceiling. Centro is reigning Olympic champion and is one of the smartest racers around, tailor-made for the heats. Engels has the closing speed necessary to medal. So does Teare.
Engels and even moreso Teare do not have the tools to medal in the Olympic 1500m this year. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Jimmbo wrote:
Most of you here have no clue. Look at Kejelcha. He has run 3:47.01 INDOORS. Because he knows indoors is faster and he has little chance to medal at 1500m, he runs longer distances. The same will be true for Teare and Hocker, who are 3:50.39 and 3:50.53 INDOORS, respectively. Look at Johnny Gregorek, running 3:49.98 INDOORS and no medal threat. Look at mediocre milers like Galen Rupp and Sam Prakel running 3:50xx INDOORS. Get a clue people.
See my post above. I think Teare and Hocker would be great in the 1,500 because their aerobic strength can get them through the heats and I think both have the ability to close fast when tired. If they run the 5,000 at the US Trials, they will struggle if Chelimo does his alternating lap tactic. If they somehow make the 5,000 team, they don’t have a prayer of going with Cheptegei when he decides to turn it into a 12:50 race. I think they DO have a chance in the 1,500.
JBaller33 wrote:
I don’t think you understand that it takes a fairly significant amount of aerobic strength to compete in championship races in the 1,500. You run 3 races in 5 days. Then, you have to run an extremely fast last lap at the end of the 5 days.
This has virtually nothing to do with “aerobic strength” versus the aerobic conditioning necessary for a single 1500.
JBaller33 wrote:
Centro has, historically, been able to do this despite not fast times in the Diamond League time trial type races.
He’s been able to medal in slower races while in 3:30/1:44 shape, which may never come again.
JBaller33 wrote:
As Americans, our big concern is whether he is healthy. Engels has better last lap speed, but yes, he has not put it together on the international stage.
All the evidence suggests that peak Centrowitz (i.e. 4+ years ago) had better last lap speed than Engels.
JBaller33 wrote:
Wightman does not compete well in the big competitions. 3 races over 5 days will wear on him, and he does not have the great finishing speed that you need.
Wightman was 5th in the Doha final in 3:31.87, which was at the time a PR by over 2 seconds. How does that align with your contention? He was .17” behind Jakob, .41” out of a medal, and .93” ahead of the top American in 8th (Centro). No American in history has ever run that fast in a championship 1500. Since then he has lowered his 1500 PR to 3:29.47, faster than any American except Lagat, and improved his 800 to 1:44.18 in a race that he won. He is as good a bet to medal as anyone except Cheruiyot and Jakob.
JBaller33 wrote:
Makhloufi is the only 800/1,500 type runner that is widely successful in the championship 1,500s, and it is because his closing speed is crazy fast.
The drugs probably don’t hurt either.
JBaller33 wrote:
I think Hoare has an excellent chance though because of his strong aerobic base and ability to close fast.
Agreed - his 3:32 at the NBIGP was mighty impressive.
walter j wrote:
Engels and even moreso Teare do not have the tools to medal in the Olympic 1500m this year. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Agreed. And Zoolander is one of the greatest films in cinematic history.
jabouko wrote:
IMO its Centro and Engels well above the rest
Lotta people sleeping on Josh Thompson’s chances.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K-mQXlMxoEUhttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-W6LZjq-kTQhttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X4TwxSGocTIJBaller33 wrote:
And I think that's the point of this thread. Australia and UK will probably be tougher teams to make than the US team for a 3:33 to 3:38 guy. US still probably has more potential to medal.
Sorry, one more thing: no.