Aussiestatman wrote:
After the Tokyo Marathon I set about ranking the top 50. I decided to place three women together at 18th. One, Valerie Jemeli, would struggle in London while the other two would amazingly record the same times in finishing Valencia, so those two I still cannot separate as equal 18th here. Degita Azimeraw and Tigist Girma both recorded 2.19.56.
Both of these at equal 18th should run Hamburg v Tirunesh to give themselves a chance of an Olympic spot.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
I wrote a short article in November just before Valencia highlighting the recent history and current form and sent it to the Brojos for the front page but they showed minimal interest.
About Ethiopia selecting their women to represent in the marathon at the Olympics. Started with the 2019 Worlds and assessed the results since, mostly at Majors.
It all changed this week when Ethiopia decided to have a trial in three weeks: top 3 are selected.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Almost done: 30 men and 29 women. Should I go to 40? It gets more difficult.
Last woman in the 30 is Azmera Gebru. Details soon. Just ahead of Purity Rionoripo, whose husband is a top 60 marathoner as well.
With her win yesterday in windy conditions in Nagoya, Mizuki Matsuda makes this list now between these two women.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
26th female is Valary Jemeli: poor tenth in London in 2.28.18 after winning Frankfurt last year in 2.19.10. Had three other results under 2.23.02 in either 2018 or 2019.
27. Gutemi Shone, second in Dubai in 2.20.11 after winning Seville in Feb 2019 in 2.24.28. Sidenote: If Kellyn Taylor wins this morning at the project in 2.20.44 like I have called it, she would rocket into this top 30 in one of the next three places.
The winner yesterday in Italy in 2.20.08, Angela Tanui, rockets into this list at 27, above Gutemi.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
22nd lady is Ababel Yeshaneh. Breakthrough at this distance was two years ago this month winning at the short Abu Dhabi course in 2.20.16. Confirmed her ability when second in Chicago last year when Kosgei claimed the WR. Didn’t panic when lost touch with that leader and finished in 2.20.51. Was through halfway in 68.22. Was unlucky at the World Half Champs this year to be clipped by Jepkosgei and both falling.
23. Asefa Kebede, third in Tokyo in 2.20.30 after winning Beijing last Nov. in 2.23.31.
Winner yesterday in Milan, Hiwot Gebrekidan in the WL of 2.19.35, motors into this list. Previous best of 2.23.50. Hiwot at 23 between the two mentioned above. Looking forward to seeing which Major she enters later this year.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Placing Galen at 27 doesn't, of course, mean that he would finish that low at next year's Olympics because of the 26 named before him, 13 are Ethiopian and 11 are Kenyan. With only 7 from those two countries possibly able to compete, that puts Rupp at the edge of the top ten in Japan next year.
28. Soloman Deksisa was second in Amsterdam in 2.05.16 last year after third there the year before in 2.04.40. Had had three unsuccessful attempts at majors, the last two were a 12th in Tokyo in 2017 and a DNF in Boston last year.
Milan results bring 3 changes among the men: 28, 29, and 30 are replaces with third, fourth, and fifth from last Sunday. Majors in the second half of the year will be great chances for Deksisa, Osako, and Kenneth Kipkemoi to work their way back in.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
6.Shura Kitata. winner in London
7.Lelisa Desisa, disappointing in Valencia but current World Champ
8. Vincent Kipchumba, runner up in London, i had him at 23 previously
9. Sisay Lemma, third in Tokyo and London
10. Geremew, 4th in London after being ranked 5 from results last year
11. Amos Kipruto: 4th Valencia after third at Worlds 2019
12. Mule Wasihun, fifth in London in 2.06.08. Impossible that officially he is ranked 43 after his third in London in 2.03.16 still makes him tenth fastest all-time.
13. Kamworor: had him at 7 before COVID damaged the world.
14: Tamirat Tola, details soon.
Titus Ekiru's mighty Milan mauling rises him from 24 to among these 3, can't choose exactly where just yet
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
28. Soloman Deksisa was second in Amsterdam in 2.05.16 last year after third there the year before in 2.04.40. Had had three unsuccessful attempts at majors, the last two were a 12th in Tokyo in 2017 and a DNF in Boston last year.
Milan results bring 3 changes among the men: 28, 29, and 30 are replaces with third, fourth, and fifth from last Sunday. Majors in the second half of the year will be great chances for Deksisa, Osako, and Kenneth Kipkemoi to work their way back in.
A special shout out goes to Barnabas Kiptum, who has gone quicker each of his last five attempts at this classic distance.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
12. Mule Wasihun, fifth in London in 2.06.08. Impossible that officially he is ranked 43 after his third in London in 2.03.16 still makes him tenth fastest all-time.
13. Kamworor: had him at 7 before COVID damaged the world.
14: Tamirat Tola, details soon.
Titus Ekiru's mighty Milan mauling rises him from 24 to among these 3, can't choose exactly where just yet
Decided that Ekiru is at 12 and everyone drops one place. Needs a podium finish at a major to enter the top ten.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Up to 25 and still no Rupp. Soon now: just before Osako, who claimed the Japanese NR this year.
29. Suguru Osako, fourth in Tokyo to book the last spot in his home Olympics in NR of 2.05.29.
Will get his chance in a home Olympics to challenge the top five.
Aussiestatman wrote:
26th female is Valary Jemeli: poor tenth in London in 2.28.18 after winning Frankfurt last year in 2.19.10. Had three other results under 2.23.02 in either 2018 or 2019.
Jemeli looking for a way back to my top 20 by winning in quick time in Prague. 67.42 is the number to remember: that was her time at halfway when winning Frankfurt.
Aussiestatman wrote:
I have this ranking thing down pat now after 15 months. You can rely on my opinions being more reliable than the official rankings and most other experts.
Yesterday, Purity and Gutemi proved their belonging in this list. I think either could have a podium finish at a fall Major.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
I have this ranking thing down pat now after 15 months. You can rely on my opinions being more reliable than the official rankings and most other experts.
Yesterday, Purity and Gutemi proved their belonging in this list. I think either could have a podium finish at a fall Major.
Purity becomes only the 16th woman in history to record three finishes sub 2.21. Kosgei has the most with six, Paula and Gladys have 5.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Yesterday, Purity and Gutemi proved their belonging in this list. I think either could have a podium finish at a fall Major.
Purity becomes only the 16th woman in history to record three finishes sub 2.21. Kosgei has the most with six, Paula and Gladys have 5.
Placing her at 30, gatekeeper.
Aussiestatman wrote:
should be studying 102 wrote:
yes. continue. Where is galen rupp? He ran 209 on a TOUGH atlanta course in bad conditions. Dont pretend that Galen Rupp is only a 209 marathoner this year. I WISH WISH WISH that he ran the marathon project, but maybe its not fast enough for him.
25th woman: Alemu Megertu, fifth in London in 2.24.23 after two sub 2.23’s last year. With so few marathons run this year only two women have hit that target this year with Sara Hall a chance to be the third. Alemu won Rome in April 2019 in 2.22.52 then second in Frankfurt in 2.21.10.
Dropping to 31 for the time being. Happy for her to prove me wrong in the fall at her next event.
Aussiestatman wrote:
I have this ranking thing down pat now after 15 months. You can rely on my opinions being more reliable than the official rankings and most other experts.
Feeling like a 40 something day profile thread is a good idea. Starting the research tonight.
What could Giday do over a thon?
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
28. Soloman Deksisa was second in Amsterdam in 2.05.16 last year after third there the year before in 2.04.40. Had had three unsuccessful attempts at majors, the last two were a 12th in Tokyo in 2017 and a DNF in Boston last year.
Milan results bring 3 changes among the men: 28, 29, and 30 are replaces with third, fourth, and fifth from last Sunday. Majors in the second half of the year will be great chances for Deksisa, Osako, and Kenneth Kipkemoi to work their way back in.
Realised that I didn’t have Kaan Obzilen in my 30 so I have taken Seifu Tura out and inserted Obzilen at 29.
So many changes are a-brewing with the results these next two days. Or, alternately, I might have been close to correct and they solidify their positions. Boston list coming out in this next week.
What’s your prediction for the women’s marathon today?