killian jornet 10.5km 32:25 - 30:21 10k split

knownnewz wrote:

Also, Kilian didn't run 32 for his supposed 1st 10.5 K time trial. He didn't run as fast as he thought he could so he made up a story to wow his fanboys. If you follow him, he often attempts to create these outlandish stats and times but never has proof i.e. He never summitted everest for the fkt, just read the reports. He claims he ran like 15 flat 5k reps but never proved it with data. He talked about his 400 rep workout recently but no data. He doesn't have the ability to run what he tells the public but dopes up to run awesome in races. Most dopers have this same pattern, making up lies about workouts they've done. Tell me I'm lying... just look at every busted dopers IG posts prior to being busted.

From his instagram story:

knownnewz goes home devastated

Rhodium Nights wrote:

Halvard wrote:

He ran 21k "tempo" at that pace in training, so it could be his marathon pace with training and a good prep, I didn't do the math but he should be pretty quick. Anyway, he's nowhere near the distance running goat, I think if we want to talk about range, Geb is the guy.

Are you kidding? It's Bekele.

Cross Country? Check

Track? Check

Road? Check

If we include only times and titles, I totally agree. But remember Geb broke 27 world records, he cut 20 SECONDS from the 5000 and 10 000 world records, he broke the marathon world record and he had the second all time 1500m time for some years. With all that in mind, I think his impact on the sport was way bigger than Bekele's and without him and Komen I doubt Bekele would have run as fast. Now, if Bekele can break the marathon world record, I will totally agree he's the greatest distance runner of all time (he's already the fastest, but not the greatest considering his times are not as impressive in this era than Geb times in the 90's when the 5000 WR was barely under 13 .)

Interesting, uses an IG story but then doesn't upload? Would say my point is further proved

Sage, first of all - congratulations on your excellent result at PPM last year. It was awesome to see you nail one! I was further back on the mountain and know it wasn't even the best day to run fast.

But...while I know it's en vogue to call PPM a road race, especially when compared to things like Zegama, I think you're selling it short.

Let's look at a few things.

You've qualified for the OT in the past, so I'm going to estimate you're capable of a ~64-65 minute HM, if not faster.

Running uphill at PPM may be relatively untechnical and more related to how well you do at altitude; however, running a half marathon with ~7800 feet of elevation loss is going to be much more related to your ability to move well on uneven terrain.

So what's your best time down?

You did 1:23:26 last year. So something like 20 minutes slower than your half marathon best and you were clearly on a good day.

Compare that to Kilian who ran 1:18:15 down, when he seemed like he knew he wasn't going to get the record based on his poor ascent and then just cruised down. But let's pretend he was going as hard as he could, he was 5:11 faster than you - but based on this workout probably has a similar HM fitness level.

Let's go a little further down the list - Dakota Jones has the "record" on the descent of 1:13:53 and zero road pedigree at all.

This is all to say I think folks probably lose anywhere from 20 minutes to much less than 20 minutes on their flat road potential based on their skill at running downhill fast on uneven, even if not particularly technically challenging terrain. Kipchoge probably hits the top much faster than anyone else would - but you're giving him too much credit to assume he'd cruise down it w/o any loss.

Does anyone doubt that the same aerobic engine that makes Kipchoge/Bekele/Geb the best in the marathon would translate to longer distances?

Sure, to be prepared for it on a muscular level, they would need to train on hills and trails, but give them a couple months and all the ultramarathoners would be going home devastated. It would not be close. The training is a bit different, but it's the same genetic talent that gets you good at either thing.

They wouldn't even need to alter their training that much or for that long. It would not be difficult for them.

First of all I never called Pikes Peak a "Road Race." Kilian called it a "flat road" back in 2012 when he ran in the 3:40s there. I simply said it correlates very well to road marathon performances and times though.

Obviously the top 3 miles above A-frame (above tree-line basically) is fairly rocky and steep with loose dirt and some "steps". There are definitely some really "technical trail" bits there as well as even the next several miles down to Barr Camp are quite rocky and uneven (I fell there in 2018 and probably broke a bone...it was the hardest fall I've ever taken in trail running and I've gotten stitches multiple times). But I suck at downhills and was bonking/tired/dehydrated by mile 16-18 (like I assume a lot of people are...maybe not Kilian) because I pushed the uphill hard (too hard?).

Barr Camp down into Manitou is super buffed out trail...smooth dirt basically. There is even a basically "flat mile" after Barr Camp. It is very unlike most European mountain races.

But if you want to go by splits/data Kilian put about 5-min on me on the climb and then 5-min on me on the downhill. So it was pretty much equal. But I suck at downhill (especially "runnable downhills")

And btw my half marathon PR is 1:04:32, but it was from 2011....more recently I've probably only been in 66-67min half shape at best. Actually I ran 66:40s at Big Sur back in 2016 I think.

Speaking of Dakota Jones (who has finished a close second to me at races like Lake Sonoma 50 and The North Face 50 San Fran Champs), back in 2013 him and Rob Krar single handily destroyed Kilian (and myself) at the UROC 100km from Breck to Vail. I've never seen Kilian so "weak" in a race. Dakota Jones has also beaten Kilian head to head at Transvulania. Still I say Kilian is hands down the GOAT mountain runner. He has range and a plethora of wins and records from 5km-100 miles in the mountains .When he's on...he's on.

So lets say Kipchoge goes up in 2:01 (Matt Carpenter somehow did even though he was only a 2:19 + marathoner and had only run 2:38 at Sierre-Zinal a weeks prior back in '93 when he set that impossible 3:16 time at PPM). He has a 8-min lead on Kilian from last year who smashed the climb on a hot day (keep in mind Kilian is coming off of that unreal 2:26 at Sierre-Zinal last year). Even if Kipchoge struggles on the rocks above Barr camp and Kilian gains back a few minutes...he can probably still hold that lead for the final 6-7 miles of totally buffed out dirt trail down to the finish and win by quite a bit. Maybe not, but I'd say most sub 2:10 marathoners could at least train and improve for that kind of downhill after smashing a sub 2:10 on the Ascent.

All I'm saying: On less technical, high altitude mountain races on "runnable trails" there is a very high correlation with flat road marathon fitness. Sure, I suck at the downhills (I'm much better relative at climbing and prefer net-uphill races), but that doesn't mean other much faster road marathoners (i.e. especially sub 2:10 guys) runners can't fly down the mountain even faster than the record 1:13 split on that downhill.

As far as PED testing goes. Yes the sport of "MUT" is very "wild west" and testing is a joke and basically non-existent. The only official drug testing I've ever received (actually from USADA) was after winning the 2014 Long Distance World Mountain Champs there on the Ascent (2:10). Even last year they didn't even bother to bring in USADA (even though USADA head quarters was 10-miles down the road).

birdbeard wrote:

Does anyone doubt that the same aerobic engine that makes Kipchoge/Bekele/Geb the best in the marathon would translate to longer distances?

Sure, to be prepared for it on a muscular level, they would need to train on hills and trails, but give them a couple months and all the ultramarathoners would be going home devastated. It would not be close. The training is a bit different, but it's the same genetic talent that gets you good at either thing.

They wouldn't even need to alter their training that much or for that long. It would not be difficult for them.

This sounds so painfully dumb. No, these guys are not doing anything in mtn ultramarathons. Maybe you're getting it confused with road ultramarathons? They may do ok in the Pikes Peak race Sage was talking about, since there are a lot of smoother sections, and it is marathon length, but no way in hell are they doing anything in the UTMB or something like the Leadville 100.

Maybe so, but never assume Bekele or Kipchoge couldn't go do some mountain-technical training to get used to it and then blast out course records at the biggest races.

Muscle adaptation and neuromuscular function adaptation happen quicker than cardiovascular development does. Having lived their lives at elevation and having the best cardiovascular systems of all, they would be able (very likely) to adapt to running technical terrain and eat Kilian alive.

I would love for someone to put up the money to give Bekele or Kipchoge one year to train and take on one of these races. Until then, they are not ducking mountain races, they just aren't interested.

I agree with Trail marathons.

BTW, he mentions specific trail training, even though you ask him if he is confusing it with basic ultras. So did you read?

However, I don't think two months of technical training would do it. The aerobic engines of Bekele and Kipchoge are far superior to Jornet's and that is the engine that drives the body. It's all connected. The mitochondria in the working muscles grow as do the capillaries and the entire engine as one-they already have that. These athletes need to do two things though: Get used to technical running by doing it and developing the leg muscles to be used to big climbs and big drops where they are currently not used to it. It is simple, they just need to practice.

The muscular system and Neuromuscular system develops much faster than the cardiovascular system, so they are cardiovascularly already the best - that part is mostly done.

I would say to give them 8-12 months of training on technical courses and they will destroy course records. One caveat: Some people are simply better at downhill running because it is about a brain processing thing. but no one knows how quick Kipchoge or Bekele can adapt...or some other 2-0h marathon runner, but they could train to be technical runners and destroy.

Sorry I DO NOT agree with the person using the name, Trail marathons...doh!

Not sure how this works. You are a “2:16 guy” and think Kilian is only good for a 2:15. Yet he beats you by 11 minutes at pp on one of your best days while he phones in the descent. (You are kidding yourself if you don’t think he can descend as fast as Dakota if he really wants to). Yet somehow Kilian is going to lose to a 2:05-2:10 guy without any mountain training at pikes peak. Ok sure he might have a bad day like in other races he has lost. That doesn’t really say much, anyone having a bad day can be beat.

Well, Canaday's best on a legal course is 2:18 from 2012. He admits to being two minutes slower in the half at the time of the PP he is referring to (unless I am reading it wrong), which correlates to something in the low-2:20s. Houston offers a fast course too.

Marathon 2:18:24 Houston, TX (USA) 14 JAN 2012

Marathon 2:16:52 * San Diego, CA (USA) 05 JUN 2011

You can't say Jornet is a 2:15 marathon runner until he runs a 2:15 marathon.

But saying that, what sort of formula are you working with to predict he is a 2:15 marathon runner? I can only find mountain and ultra results.....

My god. yeah, its all about the mitochondria! Yes!

I said it before and I'll say it again, there are very few races that a world top 10 marathoner can compete in trail running. In the marathon length Zegama race, Jornet destroyed 2:14 marathoners by 20-30 minutes. There is no training in the world for 20 years that will ensure a 2:04 marathoner will succeed in beating Jornet there. What, will they lose to Jornet only by 10 minutes in that case? Good luck to them.

I don't think too many 2:0h marathon runners spent time training in the technical mountain trails and then raced. Your sample size has to be ridiculously small to correlate.

Certainly, a 2:01:39 marathon runner can train on technical ground. You cannot say Kipchoge wouldn't be even better on the mountains with lots of practice than he is on the roads, just as you cannot call Jornet a 2:15 marathon runner until he does it.

Dude, Jornet was born to run in the mountains. Been running on mountain trails since he was 2.

Has developed not only ridiculous aerobic power and tendon strength, but he just thrives on it. Thrives on the challenge, risk, and difficulty. You can shut off the mind for long periods during marathon running but you do that on a trail you will get hurt.

Not doubting all that - but what is our sample size of 2:0hs who have trained specifically for this?

If you take out the technical races that are so technical that there are portions that are not runnable, you know, where you got to use the hands or be careful to avoid death or major injury - then fair - it is too late for a 30-something guy to pull that off.

But keeping it to running, and give Kipchoge or Bekele a year to focus on technical, I have no idea how he could possibly beat them....

And speaking of keeping it to strictly running Jonathan Wyatt is an example of a guy who made the transition. Not quite a 2oh guy, but ran 2:13, 62, 27:56 and 13-mid. Moved to elevation in Italy and was into ski-cross/skimo too.

Seven-time World Mountain Running Champion on the up years.

Not as technical as the crazy downhill running - but again, keeping it to a fully runnable event....

Wet Coast wrote:

Well, Canaday's best on a legal course is 2:18 from 2012. He admits to being two minutes slower in the half at the time of the PP he is referring to (unless I am reading it wrong), which correlates to something in the low-2:20s. Houston offers a fast course too.

Marathon 2:18:24 Houston, TX (USA) 14 JAN 2012

Marathon 2:16:52 * San Diego, CA (USA) 05 JUN 2011

You can't say Jornet is a 2:15 marathon runner until he runs a 2:15 marathon.

But saying that, what sort of formula are you working with to predict he is a 2:15 marathon runner? I can only find mountain and ultra results.....

You can’t say he isn’t at 2:15 marathoner if he beats Canada when Kilian isn’t even trying by 11 minutes. You can’t have it both ways. Either road marathon ability applies or it doesn’t. Your position is it directly correlates, thus Kilian must be a much better road marathoner than Canada.

Not all distance runners make good steeplechasers. In fact most of them don’t. Running down a mountain let alone on technical terrain is a certain skill most people are bad at and few improve significantly with practice.

If somehow Kilian is a worse marathoner than Canada and he still beats him by a wide margin some roadie with much worse trail ability isn’t going to magically beat him either.