War with Iran will likely begin this weekend. Erdogan is attempting a last minute mediation between the US and Iran, but it is not likely to succeed simply due to the fact that there is no one on the US side who can competently negotiate a deal with Iran. All the career state department officials who knew how to do that were purged by Trump.
Brent crude has broken $70 a barrel and could easily double in a few days if there are any strikes on oil infrastructure along the Persian Gulf (on either side).
The only chance to avert this is a TACO "framework of a deal" where Trump can announce that Iran is going to give up its nukes and invest $100 trillion in some Trump sh#t coin in a deal that may materialized sometime in the future but never actually happen.
Best scenario is another 12 day war with US and Israel taking out some Iranian military installation and again trying to bomb the nuke bunkers. Iran makes a symbolic response by bombing a few US and Israeli bases and then everyone calls it off.
Iran's military is a million men strong, but exists mostly to control the domestic population. Iran has some decent ballistic missile systems and drones. Iran's navy is a joke, but could shut down the Straits of Hormuz for a bit to spike oil prices. Iran's air force is also very limited and would crumble quickly against the US. But if Iran wants to take the gloves off, they will respond by hitting Saudi and Emirati oil infrastructure which have very limited air defenses. That in addition to a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz would double oil prices and possibly worse.
The Trump fantasy is that a limited military campaign could decapitate the regime before they had any chance to counterattack. But there are 10,000 clerics that rule Iran. Khomeini has a few dozen successors waiting in the wings and the same is true for any regional or local clerics. During the protests, some local police switched sides or stayed at home. But the military remained loyal and was ruthlessly efficient in their response. IRGC has electronic warfare equipment that can detect starlink platforms so they can keep people from using the internet when the regime shuts down the web.