Big Dog,
I remember the line of 1930s humorist Will Rodgers that went something like this: "I am less concerned about the return on my investment, than the return of my investment."
Igy
Big Dog,
I remember the line of 1930s humorist Will Rodgers that went something like this: "I am less concerned about the return on my investment, than the return of my investment."
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Big Dog,
I remember the line of 1930s humorist Will Rodgers that went something like this: "I am less concerned about the return on my investment, than the return of my investment."
Igy
That's nice.
I hope the market continues to drop. ~16,500 Dow would be a great place (that would be in correction territory from the high of 18,351).
What I THINK will happen though is that we won't quite get there and by next week at this time investors will not be as weirded out about China and the market will head north again.
Oh well. Here's hoping I'm wrong.
Flagpole,
My sense is you may be right on a month or two view, you will be wrong on a 6-12 month view. The fundamentals have been deteriorating for awhile and now the technical are following.
Igy
DJIA now down 265 on the day to around 17.14k, but it's still early, no telling what will happen later today.
DJIA down 3.85% YTD, but still up 3.49% year-over-year
Percentages are asymmetrical, though, as the denominators change.
DJIA down 685 points YTD, but still up 578 points year-over-year.
DJIA down 1174 points from 2015 high, or 6.41%
Things are looking better, but you know what? I STILL don't feel good about making a big long-term buy at this level. I still think there's too much fluff in the system.
[quote]Flagpole wrote:
I hope the market continues to drop. ~16,500 Dow would be a great place (that would be in correction territory from the high of 18,351).
Genius. A 10% drop in the value of your equity holdings is always something to hope for.
Hi, K5!
Good thinking wrote:
[quote]Flagpole wrote:
I hope the market continues to drop. ~16,500 Dow would be a great place (that would be in correction territory from the high of 18,351).
Genius. A 10% drop in the value of your equity holdings is always something to hope for.
Don't you understand that losing value is a good thing.
In Flagpole world, if the marker goes up he was right and its a good thing -- and if the market goes down he was right and its a good thing.
This is a really high caliber of financial intellect we are dealing with here on this thread.
Well, a 10% drop now is a known quantity, provides a step back to the incessant upward ratcheting we have seen for years, and in some people's minds is an inevitable and necessary, and temporary, feature of a market that over the long haul grinds inexorably upward.
It's like killing yourself in a huge workout--you are depleted for a week, but at some point, you come out stronger. That is the belief.
OTOH if fully invested people were welcoming a 25-50% drop, that would be different--deeper, longer to recover from, different character. It is only in long-term retrospect that the 2 deep cuts in the last 15 years can be considered not terribly disjunctive.
Some people actually don't care if they buy in at a high level, because they still "own" the same stuff. The problem with that thinking, IMO, is that the stuff they "own" has no intrinsic value. It is a bundle of rights, and only a bundle of rights.
I still think the bleeding is largely finished for today.
About a year and a half ago I re-allocated my 401k portfolio. I moved 50% to more secure slow growth government securities. I did this because I thought the market was way over valued. Since then, the market kept on rising and I missed out on some 2k Dow points. So June 16, I put it back into the small/midcap market. The Dow was at ~ 18,250.
damn
Doubled my holdings in SPLS today. That's probably it for the buying spree for awhile.
Don't worry guys, it's all manipulation of fake numbers to line their pockets collecting fees on your 401k.
They create a bull market, buy low and sell it all off when it rises collecting millions. You lose money in your 401k, they get rich.
That makes no sense.
Sally V,
I sold some LABD, I will buy it back in a few days when biotech goes back up.
Igy
Flagpole warns against timing the market. Now you know why.
Why? Because he so totally sucks at it, as he has just shown?
lmao
The thing FP doesn't understand about market timing is that you BUY low, and SELL high.
Flagpole is correct.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA wrote:
The thing FP doesn't understand about market timing is that you BUY low, and SELL high.
lol
Wait, what? d'oh!
Igy, are ETFs subject to the "wash sale" rule?