Down goes the Dow

My AAPL is up over 25%. You really are a contrarian indicator.

All gone in the next 12 months. Agip can you bookmark it?

Ok.

the futures are wild -

tech down 2%
sp500 down 1%
value flat

for a while now, indexing has not been the way to go. It’s been easy to beat the market with value. Looks like that will continue for a while.

Apple announcing earning Th. after close. Strong results from them could reverse all that, just as disappointing results from Alphabet and MSFT causing overnight futures to go down.

I'm glad agip has returned. This thread was getting dismal without him.

Starting in ‘76 sure. But many analysts have noted how that’s changed in last few decades.

If you do the same backtest on 30, 20 and 10 year time frames then growth wins on all 3 and value is in last.

Could a rotation happen now into value and away from growth? Not sure. It’s possible. But Google still made $69 billion in one quarter. Their 4th best quarter ever. YouTube revenue was highest ever. I’m not sure on what planet that’s “disappointing”. Just because some guy said they should have made 1 billion more…?

I will keep buying VOO on sale down here mostly, and minor positions in blue chip growth that could lead to major gains. Such as AAPL GOOGL LOW NKE V F CI META TSLA and a few dividend stocks like MO SCHD XOM.

NFA**

i completely agree.

I am hoping we get a good dip here and I am buying, been waiting a few days for just such an opportunity.

You don't think we're in a dip now?

yeah growth is still winning over 3-15 year spans. But value is crushing over the last year.

A year ago I was sighing at the complete failure of growth since the GFC. But what a year it has had. Relatively, anyway.

Growth (VUG)

1yr -26%

3 yrs: +11/yr

5 yrs +12%/yr

10 yrs +14%/yr

15 yrs +10%/yr

Value

1 yr -4%

3 yrs +9%/yr

5 yrs +8%/yr

10 yrs +11%/yr

15 yrs +7%/yr

But I suspect Gente is talking about even longer spans, when the conceptual idea of buying cheap assets is the 'right' way to invest. That's how we were all taught...rather than just buying big tech and not caring about valuation.

As for what will work going forward...My guess is that if interest rates fall back to where they were pre-inflation...then growth will again rule the roost. But if interest rates stay up here then value should continue winning.

A second question is what tech will do best....big cap mega caps...or smaller faster growers.

A third, tangential question is emerging markets...they've completely failed for 15 yrs, like value failed for 15 years. Could they roar back to life and rule the world too? Probably. Lots of money to made for those who would get that one right.

This is from 10/26/21

Igy predicted MSFT would fall 75%. As has been a pattern lately, Igy has had the direction right but been far too pessimistic.

It's a bit confusing but Igy had also predicted MSFT would fall in the 10/26/20-10/26/21 bracket. That was obviously a poor prediction.

MSFT Prices:

10/26/21 when prediction was made: $310

Now: $232 (down 25%)

Igy's prediction: $78 (down 75%)

This is all on page 2465. Painful to read what we were all saying right before the bear market started.

as of 9:33 AM eastern

holy smokes today

Value up 83 bps

Growth down 194 bps

That's about as big a divergence as you'll ever see.

interest rates down so I suspect we'll be ok today.

What is the stock down today? Down 8% on weak guidance. The whole construct of this market is fake.

to follow up on the danger of owning the 'tech' megacaps and thinking you are are a tech investor:

Today:

VGT, a traditional big cap tech fund: -1.19%

RYT, a smaller cap tech fund +0.40%

Just one day, but shows the problem that the 5-10 giants control the indexes and you may not benefit from fast growth among small tech if you are dominated by the giants.

Hard to make a switch from the last investing regime to the next one.

My attitude toward the mega cap tech is the hype was way over done. To me very similar to the tech bubble. Sure people go, “but these company have earnings.” True, but they also have been serial stock buyback players for the express purpose of goosing EPS. And, there are may piggyback companies that have little or no earnings.

Just man up for a change and admit that you were wrong…again.

to be correct on direction is a giant win, esp for a bear, since the odds are always against them.

Igy gets credit for an accurate directional call.

Here is Igy admitting he was wrong.

And you’ve been wrong every day since January 21st. :-)