Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
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Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
It’s looking like companies are indeed responsible for much of the inflation- they took the opportunity to raise prices quite a bit, clearly. Showing us why stocks are a good inflation hedge over time.
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Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Does not include the thousands and thousands of businesses that had to close due to lockdowns.
With wave after wave and lockdown after lockdown, it’s not surprising that small businesses have suffered the most. In fact, as of April 2021, studies suggest that around 200,000 US establishments have had to permanently close their doors because of the "pandemic".
Note how the WSJ (source of above) blames pandemic but in fact it was due to lockdowns.
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Highest close for the Dow since September 14.
Not as good for anything with tech in it.
But value continues to work well.
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carmine9 wrote:
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Does not include the thousands and thousands of businesses that had to close due to lockdowns.
With wave after wave and lockdown after lockdown, it’s not surprising that small businesses have suffered the most. In fact, as of April 2021, studies suggest that around 200,000 US establishments have had to permanently close their doors because of the "pandemic".
Note how the WSJ (source of above) blames pandemic but in fact it was due to lockdowns.
Cheapism Newsletter?
HA HA HA HA HA!
Well, isn't that special!
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carmine9 wrote:
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Does not include the thousands and thousands of businesses that had to close due to lockdowns.
With wave after wave and lockdown after lockdown, it’s not surprising that small businesses have suffered the most. In fact, as of April 2021, studies suggest that around 200,000 US establishments have had to permanently close their doors because of the "pandemic".
Note how the WSJ (source of above) blames pandemic but in fact it was due to lockdowns.
We have two Italian Restaurants that we have frequented over our two plus decades near our current home. One closed at the end of last year, the second at the end of this year. Our favorite Mexican restaurant is closing one of its locations by year end. More coming as they are squeezed by increasing costs and falling demand.
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Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Same FactSet report:
“In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 2.3% above expectations. This surprise percentage is below the 1-year average (+6.5%), below the 5-year average (+8.7%), and below the 10-year average (6.5%).”
Surprise, even with lowering guidance, or eliminating it entirely, the drops are huge. Good luck with the always bullish twisting narrative.
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Oh look, the village idiot from Texas is back. You need to find some better things to do during retirement than always be wrong on a MB about stocks haha.
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Igloi was crap training wrote:
Oh look, the village idiot from Texas is back. You need to find some better things to do during retirement than always be wrong on a MB about stocks haha.
I am from California.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Same FactSet report:
“In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 2.3% above expectations. This surprise percentage is below the 1-year average (+6.5%), below the 5-year average (+8.7%), and below the 10-year average (6.5%).”
Surprise, even with lowering guidance, or eliminating it entirely, the drops are huge. Good luck with the always bullish twisting narrative.
It seems to me that earnings above expectations is generally a good thing.
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agip wrote:
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
It’s looking like companies are indeed responsible for much of the inflation- they took the opportunity to raise prices quite a bit, clearly. Showing us why stocks are a good inflation hedge over time.
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#58714
This post was removed.
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Where we are:
SP500 down 21% from high
up 9% from low
but....value has done much better
Vanguard Value ETF VTV down just12% from high
Also up 9% from low.
Some value funds are actually up over those 52 weeks. Those with large energy exposure.
I'm really hoping the value puts on a long run. I think few would believe in it - they'd stay with tech. Which could let the run go on and on.
On the other hand, the growth is with tech companies....hard to see that changing, and growth is what the stock market values most.
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S+P down 20.3% YTD.
Was down more than 25% not too long ago.
My losing streak continues. Up each of the last 3 weeks in Sept and the 1st 2 weeks of October. Lost big last week and again today.
Felt like I was making back all those losses we all had the 1st 8 months of the year once I began betting vs. the market but am now back into the losing ways of 2022.
Down nearly 4.5% for year when had cut this to under 3% as of opening on 10/13.
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agip wrote:
Where we are:
SP500 down 21% from high
up 9% from low
but....value has done much better
Vanguard Value ETF VTV down just12% from high
Also up 9% from low.
Some value funds are actually up over those 52 weeks. Those with large energy exposure.
I'm really hoping the value puts on a long run. I think few would believe in it - they'd stay with tech. Which could let the run go on and on.
On the other hand, the growth is with tech companies....hard to see that changing, and growth is what the stock market values most.
I am standing firm on tech. Trimmed quite a bit of small caps months ago.
Shifted some of the tech into Nasdaq 100 as they may weather a recession/sustained downturn better.
Long term, I just don't see tech. going away.
Funny how the pendulum swings, but now after a few up days, I find myself wishing for a downturn in order to buy some of the shares sold last week.
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seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
Where we are:
SP500 down 21% from high
up 9% from low
but....value has done much better
Vanguard Value ETF VTV down just12% from high
Also up 9% from low.
Some value funds are actually up over those 52 weeks. Those with large energy exposure.
I'm really hoping the value puts on a long run. I think few would believe in it - they'd stay with tech. Which could let the run go on and on.
On the other hand, the growth is with tech companies....hard to see that changing, and growth is what the stock market values most.
I am standing firm on tech. Trimmed quite a bit of small caps months ago.
Shifted some of the tech into Nasdaq 100 as they may weather a recession/sustained downturn better.
Long term, I just don't see tech. going away.
Funny how the pendulum swings, but now after a few up days, I find myself wishing for a downturn in order to buy some of the shares sold last week.
Unlikely the tech winners of the last decade will be the winners in the next upcycle.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I am standing firm on tech. Trimmed quite a bit of small caps months ago.
Shifted some of the tech into Nasdaq 100 as they may weather a recession/sustained downturn better.
Long term, I just don't see tech. going away.
Funny how the pendulum swings, but now after a few up days, I find myself wishing for a downturn in order to buy some of the shares sold last week.
Unlikely the tech winners of the last decade will be the winners in the next upcycle.
Be that as it may, i would expect that as a rebound takes hold, we see an interest in buying up the beaten down winners from the last few years, like Apple for example. As the cycle evolves, things may change.
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seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Unlikely the tech winners of the last decade will be the winners in the next upcycle.
Be that as it may, i would expect that as a rebound takes hold, we see an interest in buying up the beaten down winners from the last few years, like Apple for example. As the cycle evolves, things may change.
the interesting thing is that many of the 'tech' companies aren't really tech companies anymore....google is an advertisement platform. As is Facebook. Apple is...consumer products and content delivery? Amazon is retail. Point is, if you want that ol' tech massive growth, the old names may not be able to deliver it. You might think you have a tech portfolio but it isn't anymore.
To get fast growth you might need to go to smaller companies that aren't household names. For that reason I use RYT, which is an equally weighted tech fund. Over the last 52 weeks, RYT has done much better than a more traditional market cap weighted fund like VGT.
But over longer periods of time VGT has done materially better, as megacap tech has done so well over the last 10 years.
Also, with RYT you don't face the prospect of major blowups like Alibaba and Tesla are going through...your money is more diversified.
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