Whistling Past the Graveyard. Some may be talking themselves into believing only 50 basis point o.f.f. rate increase will occur. (50 or 75) basis points, who cares. Rates are only moving in one direction, up. I wouldn't doubt some short covering then others saw indices rise, bought in, more short covering. Lows will be tested. If any are interested in buying SPY below 360, opportunity is not lost, later this month.
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A 4% swing in a single day is pretty rare. I bought in a little when the S&P was at 3500. A 10% gain from there is only 3850! Surely we'll see that in the next 12 months... (laughs nervously).
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applied economics ) wrote:
Whistling Past the Graveyard. Some may be talking themselves into believing only 50 basis point o.f.f. rate increase will occur. (50 or 75) basis points, who cares. Rates are only moving in one direction, up. I wouldn't doubt some short covering then others saw indices rise, bought in, more short covering. Lows will be tested. If any are interested in buying SPY below 360, opportunity is not lost, later this month.
the issue is that at some point there is enough value in the stock market that people buy in, not caring too much what happens for a year or two. it always happens in times of crisis. I have no ability to know if this is it this year, but this is what it looks like....when there is unallayed bad news but the market goes up anyway. That means the sellers are done and some value pickers are looking around.
Of course this market could be down 2% by the close. I'm not predicting anything.
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Predicting the Fed's next rate believe on Overnight Fed Funds Rate and Discount Rate currently is not that difficult. J. Powell has stated inflation needs to be broken. When the Fed has a neutral position on inflation/deflation, analysts at large banks don't do so well forecasting, especially forecasting c.p.i. No one knows until the data comes in from all over U.S.
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carmine9 wrote:
Wall Street journal for one.
JP Morgan too.
Several others as noted.
Pretty sure you could find this out yourself if you tried.
One of those is blocked and the other is months old. Got anything recent?
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agip wrote:
applied economics ) wrote:
Whistling Past the Graveyard. Some may be talking themselves into believing only 50 basis point o.f.f. rate increase will occur. (50 or 75) basis points, who cares. Rates are only moving in one direction, up. I wouldn't doubt some short covering then others saw indices rise, bought in, more short covering. Lows will be tested. If any are interested in buying SPY below 360, opportunity is not lost, later this month.
the issue is that at some point there is enough value in the stock market that people buy in, not caring too much what happens for a year or two. it always happens in times of crisis. I have no ability to know if this is it this year, but this is what it looks like....when there is unallayed bad news but the market goes up anyway. That means the sellers are done and some value pickers are looking around.
Of course this market could be down 2% by the close. I'm not predicting anything.
Market opened in the tank so I was well up. Made sense given the inflation report
Just checked. Market is now way up so I am not.
What happened?
None of the "experts" seem to be speculating.
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CG3 wrote:
A 4% swing in a single day is pretty rare. I bought in a little when the S&P was at 3500. A 10% gain from there is only 3850! Surely we'll see that in the next 12 months... (laughs nervously).
Huge swings in the market generally precede a crash.
Some of the biggest up days in market history are from 1929 and the early 1930s.
The 10 Best days ever for Dow Jones (1897 to 2018)
1. March 15, 1933 (the Dow gained 15.34%)
2. October 06, 1931 (the Dow gained 14.87%)
3. October 30, 1929 (the Dow gained 12.34%)
4. June 22, 1931 (the Dow gained 11.9%)
5. September 21, 1932 (the Dow gained 11.36%)
6. October 13, 2008 (the Dow gained 11.08%)
7. October 28, 2008 (the Dow gained 10.88%)
8. October 21, 1987 (the Dow gained 10.15%)
9. September 05, 1939 (the Dow gained 9.52%)
10. October 03, 1932 (the Dow gained 9.52%)On Sept. 3, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average swelled to a record high of 381.17,
The crash of 1929 in October and the ensuing collapse of economic activity saw the Dow eventually fall nearly 90 percent from its peak during the so-called Roaring Twenties. On this day, following an intraday low of 40.56, the Dow closed the session at 41.22.
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carmine9 wrote:
agip wrote:
the issue is that at some point there is enough value in the stock market that people buy in, not caring too much what happens for a year or two. it always happens in times of crisis. I have no ability to know if this is it this year, but this is what it looks like....when there is unallayed bad news but the market goes up anyway. That means the sellers are done and some value pickers are looking around.
Of course this market could be down 2% by the close. I'm not predicting anything.
Market opened in the tank so I was well up. Made sense given the inflation report
Just checked. Market is now way up so I am not.
What happened?
None of the "experts" seem to be speculating.
Chief Investment Strategists at large investment banks which most often today are subsidiaries of larger commercial banks do not tend to make emotional decisions. Chief Investment Strategists cannot make emotion decisions. There are share holders. Chief Investment Strategists have to be able rationally say why this or that strategy occurred. Wild swings are not due to mutual funds.
Wild swings are certainly not due to indices. Indices simply copy the best mutual funds.
Could enough day traders in sweat pants move markets on a coordinated manner in million or so different accounts at a dozen or so discount brokerage firms. I doubt it.
For nearly 100 years, U.S. presidents on days in which there may be significant equity selling have called the wealthiest U.S. citizens and asked them to buy. This occurred in 1929. Do I know if this occurred today? I don't. When that type of buying occurs, days or weeks later, the wealthy men eventually sell some of the favor buying days or weeks later.
This type of buying often occurs when president of N.Y.S.E. calls market makers and tells them to buy. Do high ranking members of U.S. executive branch call president of N.Y.S.E. and say I need buying? Yes.
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applied economics ) wrote:
I need to include hedge funds. Hedge funds, with their shorting strategies which are not allowed by mutual fund companies can have a say regarding selling and hedge funds do need to cover their shorts but there is too little money relative to all shares of equities for hedge funds to be responsible for sustained buying.
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agip wrote:
applied economics ) wrote:
Whistling Past the Graveyard. Some may be talking themselves into believing only 50 basis point o.f.f. rate increase will occur. (50 or 75) basis points, who cares. Rates are only moving in one direction, up. I wouldn't doubt some short covering then others saw indices rise, bought in, more short covering. Lows will be tested. If any are interested in buying SPY below 360, opportunity is not lost, later this month.
the issue is that at some point there is enough value in the stock market that people buy in, not caring too much what happens for a year or two. it always happens in times of crisis. I have no ability to know if this is it this year, but this is what it looks like....when there is unallayed bad news but the market goes up anyway. That means the sellers are done and some value pickers are looking around.
Of course this market could be down 2% by the close. I'm not predicting anything.
One of the craziest bear market rallies. Fortunately sold most of my shorts by yesterday, but apparently bought back in a little soon. :-)
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
the issue is that at some point there is enough value in the stock market that people buy in, not caring too much what happens for a year or two. it always happens in times of crisis. I have no ability to know if this is it this year, but this is what it looks like....when there is unallayed bad news but the market goes up anyway. That means the sellers are done and some value pickers are looking around.
Of course this market could be down 2% by the close. I'm not predicting anything.
One of the craziest bear market rallies. Fortunately sold most of my shorts by yesterday, but apparently bought back in a little soon. :-)
Lows of this morning will be tested in days or weeks. No way do U.S. equities go straight up remainder of the year through January, 2023.
I was only slightly incorrect with my U.S. market forecasts 9/30/2022 or 10/1/2022. I stated IJR/ITOT/MDY/SPY would all finish lower week ending 10/7/2022. A few days this week IJR/ITOT/SPY all were lower than 9/30/2022 market close.
Too much is going on in the world for all indices to stay up
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
the issue is that at some point there is enough value in the stock market that people buy in, not caring too much what happens for a year or two. it always happens in times of crisis. I have no ability to know if this is it this year, but this is what it looks like....when there is unallayed bad news but the market goes up anyway. That means the sellers are done and some value pickers are looking around.
Of course this market could be down 2% by the close. I'm not predicting anything.
One of the craziest bear market rallies. Fortunately sold most of my shorts by yesterday, but apparently bought back in a little soon. :-)
nice Igy. Have to say (again) that everything you said would happen....is happening. Great calls.
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agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
One of the craziest bear market rallies. Fortunately sold most of my shorts by yesterday, but apparently bought back in a little soon. :-)
nice Igy. Have to say (again) that everything you said would happen....is happening. Great calls.
Well thanks, right for now. I do really believe, to the core, valuations always matter, and the Fed created fake markets. The Fed may be able to engineer a period of continued asset price support. I don’t think so, but it is possible.
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agip wrote:
nice Igy. Have to say (again) that everything you said would happen....is happening. Great calls.
Buying shorts this morning was a great call?
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Johannes wrote:
Buying shorts this morning was a great call?
No, but selling 95% of them by Wednesday close was. Buying them back gradually, about a third of what I sold.
Thanks again for letting us know about your good investing well after the fact.
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