The slap fight continues with Iran launching a missile at Kuwait and more US bombing. Negotiations are ongoing but for all practical purposes at a standstill.
There are now two big deadlines coming up. First is summer. Any US ground operation in Iran will be extremely difficult from mid June through late September. The US can and has fought in the hot desert summers in Iraq. But it is way more difficult due to logistics and operational demands on equipment.
The other deadline is the end of the supply curve from oil reserves. The US and China, primarily, have been able to keep a lid on oil prices by tapping reserves. Those reserves will reach levels this summer where they can no longer be tapped at the same rate due to the need to keep a cushion for a major supply shock (like everyone one the Persian Gulf bombing each others oil infrastructure). Once China in particular starts buying more oil on the open market, the price supports provided by tapping reserves will stop. If Hormuz is still shut, oil prices will spike.
Iran is slowly reopening domestic internet access. At the same time, it is launching brutal crackdowns on dissenters and opponents of the regime. Iran has attacked Kurds in the north to make sure they stay in line as conditions deteriorate across the country. But with some availability of the internet, there is a potential for new protests and another bloody crackdown.
