Official US-Israel-Iran War Thread

Precious Roy wrote:

The slap fight continues with Iran launching a missile at Kuwait and more US bombing. Negotiations are ongoing but for all practical purposes at a standstill.

There are now two big deadlines coming up. First is summer. Any US ground operation in Iran will be extremely difficult from mid June through late September. The US can and has fought in the hot desert summers in Iraq. But it is way more difficult due to logistics and operational demands on equipment.

The other deadline is the end of the supply curve from oil reserves. The US and China, primarily, have been able to keep a lid on oil prices by tapping reserves. Those reserves will reach levels this summer where they can no longer be tapped at the same rate due to the need to keep a cushion for a major supply shock (like everyone one the Persian Gulf bombing each others oil infrastructure). Once China in particular starts buying more oil on the open market, the price supports provided by tapping reserves will stop. If Hormuz is still shut, oil prices will spike.

Iran is slowly reopening domestic internet access. At the same time, it is launching brutal crackdowns on dissenters and opponents of the regime. Iran has attacked Kurds in the north to make sure they stay in line as conditions deteriorate across the country. But with some availability of the internet, there is a potential for new protests and another bloody crackdown.

RealityIsPainful wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

The slap fight continues with Iran launching a missile at Kuwait and more US bombing. Negotiations are ongoing but for all practical purposes at a standstill.

There are now two big deadlines coming up. First is summer. Any US ground operation in Iran will be extremely difficult from mid June through late September. The US can and has fought in the hot desert summers in Iraq. But it is way more difficult due to logistics and operational demands on equipment.

The other deadline is the end of the supply curve from oil reserves. The US and China, primarily, have been able to keep a lid on oil prices by tapping reserves. Those reserves will reach levels this summer where they can no longer be tapped at the same rate due to the need to keep a cushion for a major supply shock (like everyone one the Persian Gulf bombing each others oil infrastructure). Once China in particular starts buying more oil on the open market, the price supports provided by tapping reserves will stop. If Hormuz is still shut, oil prices will spike.

Iran is slowly reopening domestic internet access. At the same time, it is launching brutal crackdowns on dissenters and opponents of the regime. Iran has attacked Kurds in the north to make sure they stay in line as conditions deteriorate across the country. But with some availability of the internet, there is a potential for new protests and another bloody crackdown.

This doesn't sound like a "cease-fire". It also seems like none of the objectives of the war have been met. Strait still closed.

Precious Roy wrote:

And it now looks like Trump backed off of attack plans because Pentagon advisors told Trump that Iran had reconstituted its missile and drone launch capabilities and was ready to launch hundreds of drones and missiles in response to a new US attack. The Pentagon also told Trump that Iran's air defenses had improved significantly and are now able to better track and target US bombers.

Negotiations between the US and Iran show no signs of any breakthroughs. Iran is still tabling any discussions of its nuclear program until later in the negotiations. Iran is still sticking to its demands that it get war reparations, complete sanctions relief, retains control over Hormuz while the US completely lifts the blockade and all frozen funds are released. US is still demanding that Iran give up nukes, 20 year moratorium on enrichment, no more proxies, and no control over the Strait. The only thing that may have prompted Trump's comment about "serious negotiations" taking place was the US agreeing to suspend oil sanctions on Iran while negotiations took place and was willing to have some flexibility on Iranian civilian nuclear activity. Otherwise, Pakistani mediators told Reuters that both sides keep moving the goal posts and have made progress in negotiations very difficult.

Trump is delusional with the power he has. He has been reported to have been telling people recently that he is more powerful than any US president and should be compared historically to the likes of Alexander the Great and Napoleon. Yet he just cannot seem to pull the trigger on new strikes against Iran. Iran also has kept its powder dry except for an occasional harassing attack on UAE.

If both sides opt for a stalemate and battle of economic attrition, who knows when that will end. US treasuries are spiking and the Fed is going to have no choice but to raise interest rates to prevent a complete rout of the bond market. Higher interest rates will hit consumers hard who are already getting bit by inflation. If oil shortages materialize over the summer, inflation could continue to rise while growth slows or goes negative. The last president to get shown up by Iran while presiding over stagflation was Jimmy Carter.