Down goes the Dow

It is very narrow market. AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, FB, GILD and DIS account for all of the S&P market gains in 2015.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It is very narrow market. AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, FB, GILD and DIS account for all of the S&P market gains in 2015.

yeh - the equal weighted sp 500 is pretty much dead flat for the year or slightly negative while the regular weighted sp500 is up 1.5% or so.

That is bearish, I think.

agip,

Dr. John Hussman's work uses stock market breadth and bond spreads in part as indicators of investor risk preferences.

I'm off to ride a spin bike and lift weights at the Y.

I'll tune in to CNBC World this evening. It will be interesting to see if the PBOC can lift the Chinese markets again. I would think for awhile at least.

Have a good evening.

Igy

Funny to hear all the stock hawkers suddenly couch their bullish comments with "should," "may," and "could."

Suddenly?

Where've you been? wrote:

Suddenly?

You must be new around here. It is the modus operandi of GOI to assign positions to others on this thread and then grace us with his brilliance as he refutes his own straw men.

Is that you POTO? It's nice that you've made up up your own name instead of stealing one belonging to someone else.

Where've you been? wrote:

Is that you POTO? It's nice that you've made up up your own name instead of stealing one belonging to someone else.

Agreed that it used to be annoying that POTO was always stealing others' names. But I long ago got used to it and ceased concerning myself with his antics.

I'm not POTO. Nor do I EVER steal anyone else' name.

So, if you are POTO, well done.

If you are not POTO, sorry but you made a bad guess here.

And the fact remains that what I posted is indeed GOI's modus operandi. If you truly are not new here then that should have been evident to you long ago.

Ok, thanks POTO.

You need to read my post again.

Here you go, read the first paragraph. Now criticize me for posting another Stockman link.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/wall-street-still-didnt-get-the-memo-chinas-done-tops-in/

Yours,

GOI

US stocks now down just 2.6% from their all time highs

when do we get a real correction? It's been what - 4 years?

I am actually a bit fearful of a "good" correction, because it will force my hand.

Here I am, mostly out of the markets again, and very handily beating them, which has not been hard either this year or last. For me, the decision to be out has been an easy one.

But if there is a good correction I will have to make a significant decision. If it will be a great correction, say 50%, then for me that would be an easy call.

But 5%? No thanks.

10%? Better, but not encouraging, with all the fudging that has been going on with share prices and earnings.

15%? Tough call. IMO at that level, many things would be fully priced, but as people here are fond of saying, you often buy in at a top (full pricing being a sort of top). At a 15% drop I would buy certain things, depending on how much various different sectors contributed to that drop.

20%? Same for me as 15%.

25%? Good for a broad-spectrum, diversified buy.

For me, a 10%-20% correction would present a situation that would require work on my part, and would be a pain. Up around 20-25, it is easier to deal with. 5% is just a fluctuation to me, not a correction. In this climate, only over maybe 8%-10% would be any sort of an actual correction, and it would be a limited, and probably narrow, one at that.

Maserati wrote:

Here I am, mostly out of the markets again, and very handily beating them, which has not been hard either this year or last. .

.

why do you say carp like this? I mean seriously. You act like your default position is some risk free easy peasy 10% return. Not buying it, as much as I do like italian leather apholstery.

I don't know from where you get that impression.

First, I am comparing to US stocks.

Second, what I do requires work, but it is work that I understand, unlike trying to strategically invest within the existing climate to extract yield. To me, what I do is less risky than it would be at the moment to "invest", but it is by no means "easy", as you wrongly suggest.

I use VTSMX as a measure. This year it has been easy to beat. Last year I had 2 opportunities in particular that put me well ahead of VTSMX. That does not happen every year, but when it does, I seize the opportunity and get out of the markets.

I never claimed, nor did I act, as though some risk-free 10% return was my default position, that was entirely a projection on your part.

Further to my last post, you should remember this fact: that in the many years in which I have been involved with money, I have only been "out" 3 times, while being "in" the vast majority of the time.

I have never claimed any differently.

This is a vastly different reality than the fantasy that you have somehow invented.

Maserati wrote:

Further to my last post, you should remember this fact: that in the many years in which I have been involved with money, I have only been "out" 3 times, while being "in" the vast majority of the time.

I have never claimed any differently.

This is a vastly different reality than the fantasy that you have somehow invented.

VTSMX was up 12.43% last year. And you JUST SAID that return was "not hard" to beat. I'm not making up anything.

Are you dense, or just argumentative?

Read the posts.

Maserati wrote:

Are you dense, or just argumentative?

Read the posts.

argumentative.

look, you now have two stories:

1) that you worked hard - not 'easy', and took a great opportunity last year that beat the market's 12+% return.

and

2) it's not hard to beat the market.

I see these as incompatible, but since you prefer to be all secretive and mysterious it may have to stay that way.