What will it take for Jakob to dethrone Bekele?
What does he say himself:
"
My goal was to be the best runner in history....”
“(It would take) Five or six [Olympic] gold medals, to be better than all the different runners in all the disciplines. That would be the end of the discussion. And the goal is never to have the discussion again."
So he wanted to be the best runner in history ................ in all disciplines. He is possibly thinking about 800m to Marathon as in the 2 threads mentioned in my previous post. But he is certainly not only thinking about the 1500m/ mile.
He mention 5-6 Olympic golds but I don´t think he believes that is sufficient. I think we have to see it in connection what he otherwise has stated in the last year or two, including that he wants to break all WRs from the 1500m to the Marathon.
I also think it is understood that he must take at least as many WC golds.
If he can do this he is close to be the new Goat, especially if he also can do something in X country and on the roads. BUT IS IT REALISTIC?
Let´s take the WRs first:
More than 5 years ago I predicted that he would take all the WRs between 1500m and 10,000m and I have of course not changed my mind since he now has taken a few and is much closer to the rest of them. PROVIDED HE OVERCOMES HIS INJURY PROBLEMS SO HE CAN TRAIN AS USUAL.
The 1500m and the mile:
I predict that he will have both of them at latest at the end of the next year´s season.
He could in my opinion have taken the mile WR in Eugene if the conditions had been better (no jetlag, no wind, better pacing, evening race) OR in Brüssel if he had run the mile instead of the 2.000m. His 2000m WR equals a mile in around 3:42 (the WR is 3:43.13).
In the 1500m he needs to run around 0.3 seconds faster per lap and he can do that when he has improved his aerobic capacity a bit more. His training has given him steady aerobic improvements for 15 years and there is no reason to believe it will stop soon.
3000m:
Many here will possibly agree that he could have taken it last year if he had run it in Paris instead of the 2 miles. And it will be even easier as he developes further aerobically.
5000m and 10,000m:
I believe him when he states that he gets relatively better as the distance increases so he can also break these WRs if he continues his efficient, mainly aerobic training.
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If he is close to the WRs in the 1500m and the 5000m it of course makes him the favorite for gold in these 2 distances in Paris which would mean he can get 5 Olympic golds if he can keep up the steam until the 2028 Los Angeles OG. And possible a number of WC golds too.
Bekele has 3 olympic golds and 5 WC golds but Jakob must have more to try to equal Bekele´s 12 X country WC golds.
It would also help if he could take some X country golds (on not too hilly courses) and some road golds ( he would have run in Riga last year if not getting married and do anybody (apart from a few American patriots) doubt that he could have taken the mile gold?)
I also think he will be a monster on the HM if he end up running this distance (probably not before OG Los Angeles). I think that his current TRESHOLD PACE indicates a HM in under the current WR and that is why he considers the HM to be his best distance.