Down goes the Dow

Klondike5 · 2013-08-27T08:47:20-04:00

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe. Maybe 5% What's the bottom? I am betting sub 13,000

Non-Running Finance/Jobs

Reply New New Thread

Moderation Moderation Information Moderation Information & Rules

Page 2,899 of 3,560

1 2,898 2,899 2,900 3,560

Next Last

3 years ago 09/15/2022 4:47pm EDT

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Fed Ex lowers guidance. $3.44 adj down from $5.14 Est. Aggressively reducing costs, closing stores.

yeah this is the time any company with bad news has to make it public, before earnings season. We'll have a bunch of these.

the good news is that the street isn't expecting much earnings growth this quarter:

FactSet
@FactSet
·
Sep 10
$SPX is expected to report Y/Y earnings growth of 3.7% for Q3 2022, which would be the lowest growth since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). #earnings, #earningsinsight,

bit.ly

Highest Number of S&P 500 Companies Citing “Recession” on Q2 Earnings Calls in Over 10 Years

FactSet Research Systems Inc

Given the decline in GDP for a second straight quarter, did more S&P 500 companies than normal discuss the term “recession” during their earnings conference calls for the second quarter?

Open link

3 years ago 09/15/2022 4:50pm EDT

re: agip

we're in the midst of another crash - SP500 is down 10% Aug 15-Sept 15.

10% in a month is pretty much a crash.

Although it's a bit of a cherry pick.

3 years ago 09/15/2022 4:55pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
Although it's a bit of a cherry pick.

Isn't that what we do in this thread...?

:-D

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:00pm EDT

re: nearly retired

nearly retired wrote:
agip wrote:
Although it's a bit of a cherry pick.
Isn't that what we do in this thread...?
:-D

Is looking at the last month cherry picking?

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:01pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
carmine9 wrote:
What underlying pressures of inflation?
My very basic understanding is that increasing the money supply decreases the value of the dollar which results in inflation.
Has the printing of $ slowed?
input prices to businesses have been falling for many weeks, and even accelerating to the downside recently.

What's an input price?

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:05pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
we're in the midst of another crash - SP500 is down 10% Aug 15-Sept 15.
10% in a month is pretty much a crash.
Although it's a bit of a cherry pick.

Looks like a fire sale to me. If you were buying equities a month ago why wouldn't you buy them today?

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:07pm EDT

re: carmine9

carmine9 wrote:
agip wrote:
input prices to businesses have been falling for many weeks, and even accelerating to the downside recently.
What's an input price?

whatever it costs a business to make a widget and get it to market.

materials, transportation, etc. this kind of thing I pasted below.

although of course labor is usually the biggest factor and wages keep going up so that's not helping inflation. Although it's good for workers.

Ocean freight rates down 11% this week, 38% over the past 5 weeks. Maybe we end up normalizing all the way: pic.twitter.com/15SB90AVdw
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) September 15, 2022

View on X

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:11pm EDT

re: this is it

this is it wrote:
agip wrote:
we're in the midst of another crash - SP500 is down 10% Aug 15-Sept 15.
10% in a month is pretty much a crash.
Although it's a bit of a cherry pick.
Looks like a fire sale to me. If you were buying equities a month ago why wouldn't you buy them today?

because inflation is not coming down as I expected. it seems to be entrenched. So the Fed may have to raise rates from 3% to 5%. That will not be good at all for stocks. You saw the surprise from the market when it fell 5% this week on that news. So far. More downside tomorrow if Fed Ex weakness carries over like it is in the after hours.

And a month ago GDP Now was seeing considerable real GDP growth for the 3Q. Now it is seeing virtually none.

The story has changed, in other words.

Where I could be wrong is that input prices are showing that inflation has peaked. Maybe that will carry over to the actual inflation readings sooner than I think. Which would be a giant boost to stocks.

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:22pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
this is it wrote:
Looks like a fire sale to me. If you were buying equities a month ago why wouldn't you buy them today?
because inflation is not coming down as I expected. it seems to be entrenched. So the Fed may have to raise rates from 3% to 5%. That will not be good at all for stocks. You saw the surprise from the market when it fell 5% this week on that news. So far. More downside tomorrow if Fed Ex weakness carries over like it is in the after hours.
And a month ago GDP Now was seeing considerable real GDP growth for the 3Q. Now it is seeing virtually none.
The story has changed, in other words.
Where I could be wrong is that input prices are showing that inflation has peaked. Maybe that will carry over to the actual inflation readings sooner than I think. Which would be a giant boost to stocks.

None of that is a reason not to buy equities unless you're a day trader or some such. If we're investing for the future we should be loading up. In 5 years we'll look back and see this as a great buying opportunity.

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:28pm EDT

re: this is it

this is it wrote:
agip wrote:
because inflation is not coming down as I expected. it seems to be entrenched. So the Fed may have to raise rates from 3% to 5%. That will not be good at all for stocks. You saw the surprise from the market when it fell 5% this week on that news. So far. More downside tomorrow if Fed Ex weakness carries over like it is in the after hours.
And a month ago GDP Now was seeing considerable real GDP growth for the 3Q. Now it is seeing virtually none.
The story has changed, in other words.
Where I could be wrong is that input prices are showing that inflation has peaked. Maybe that will carry over to the actual inflation readings sooner than I think. Which would be a giant boost to stocks.
None of that is a reason not to buy equities unless you're a day trader or some such. If we're investing for the future we should be loading up. In 5 years we'll look back and see this as a great buying opportunity.

Agreed. Unless you are nearing the end of your work career and plan to start making withdrawals soon. In that case you need to be more gunshy.

and note that I’m only selling in my trading account, which is just a small portion of my portfolio.

My plan is to start dribbling money back into stocks and speed up if we get back above the 20 day moving average. I’ll probably get whiplashed of course.

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:31pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
... I’ll probably get whiplashed of course.

Yesterday the self-proclaimed "Financial Advisor" proclaimed you the lone voice of reason in this thread, but from my perch you've been pretty fickle, always clearly reasoning out your decisions but also always changing your reasoning with the blowing of the winds. Maybe I've been reading you wrong?

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:33pm EDT

re: nearly retired

nearly retired wrote:
... always clearly reasoning out your decisions ...

Let me be clear that I really appreciate this about your contributions. Or as they say in Letterkenny, "that's what I appreciates about you..." :-)

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:34pm EDT

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hurry, the S&P broke 3,900. Get Yutre, Contrarian Indicator, Portia, Earnie, Johannes, and The Financial Advisor to plug the hole in the dam.
Come on boys!

Literally just a few minutes after Igy posted this, the S&P reversed course. This guy is money I tell ya!

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:40pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
this is it wrote:
Looks like a fire sale to me. If you were buying equities a month ago why wouldn't you buy them today?
because inflation is not coming down as I expected. it seems to be entrenched. So the Fed may have to raise rates from 3% to 5%. That will not be good at all for stocks. You saw the surprise from the market when it fell 5% this week on that news. So far. More downside tomorrow if Fed Ex weakness carries over like it is in the after hours.
And a month ago GDP Now was seeing considerable real GDP growth for the 3Q. Now it is seeing virtually none.
The story has changed, in other words.
Where I could be wrong is that input prices are showing that inflation has peaked. Maybe that will carry over to the actual inflation readings sooner than I think. Which would be a giant boost to stocks.

Bidenflation it's a wastin' your wealth away.

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:41pm EDT

re: nearly retired

nearly retired wrote:
agip wrote:
Yesterday the self-proclaimed "Financial Advisor" proclaimed you the lone voice of reason in this thread, but from my perch you've been pretty fickle, always clearly reasoning out your decisions but also always changing your reasoning with the blowing of the winds. Maybe I've been reading you wrong?

I dunno. I use this board to vent. My total portfolio exposure barely budges…when I’m scared it’s 62%, when I’m greedy it’s 67%.
you want to call that fickle ok.
look, I use the board to vent. I’m more concerned about myself than what y’all think. It helps me shout and scream so I don’t do too many actual stupid trades. Easier to talk than actually trade.

3 years ago 09/15/2022 5:46pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
look, I use the board to vent. I’m more concerned about myself than what y’all think.

I hope you saw my follow up post.

3 years ago 09/15/2022 7:22pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
carmine9 wrote:
What's an input price?
whatever it costs a business to make a widget and get it to market.
materials, transportation, etc. this kind of thing I pasted below.
although of course labor is usually the biggest factor and wages keep going up so that's not helping inflation. Although it's good for workers.
Tweet:twitter.com/conorsen/status/1570349986...

Why would those prices be going down?

Do you have data that shows they are?

3 years ago 09/15/2022 7:25pm EDT

re: this is it

this is it wrote:
agip wrote:
because inflation is not coming down as I expected. it seems to be entrenched. So the Fed may have to raise rates from 3% to 5%. That will not be good at all for stocks. You saw the surprise from the market when it fell 5% this week on that news. So far. More downside tomorrow if Fed Ex weakness carries over like it is in the after hours.
And a month ago GDP Now was seeing considerable real GDP growth for the 3Q. Now it is seeing virtually none.
The story has changed, in other words.
Where I could be wrong is that input prices are showing that inflation has peaked. Maybe that will carry over to the actual inflation readings sooner than I think. Which would be a giant boost to stocks.
None of that is a reason not to buy equities unless you're a day trader or some such. If we're investing for the future we should be loading up. In 5 years we'll look back and see this as a great buying opportunity.

Or as a disastrous error.

Remains to be seen.

I believe the latter to be more likely.

Think 2008 without the recovery

3 years ago 09/15/2022 7:49pm EDT

re: carmine9

carmine9 wrote:
agip wrote:
whatever it costs a business to make a widget and get it to market.
materials, transportation, etc. this kind of thing I pasted below.
although of course labor is usually the biggest factor and wages keep going up so that's not helping inflation. Although it's good for workers.
Tweet:twitter.com/conorsen/status/1570349986...
Why would those prices be going down?
Do you have data that shows they are?

here's the producer price index. if you change the graph to one year you can see the material drop in prices at the producer level.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities

Open link

3 years ago 09/15/2022 8:45pm EDT

re: Contrarian Indicator alert

Contrarian Indicator alert wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hurry, the S&P broke 3,900. Get Yutre, Contrarian Indicator, Portia, Earnie, Johannes, and The Financial Advisor to plug the hole in the dam.
Come on boys!
Literally just a few minutes after Igy posted this, the S&P reversed course. This guy is money I tell ya!

Literally just a few minutes after you, Contrarian Indicator Alert (aka obsessed Troll) posted this, S&P futures turned under the daily low. This guy will double your money by shorting every time he posts. Also, do the same with all his other handles, just a few listed above.

Page 2,899 of 3,560

1 2,898 2,899 2,900 3,560

Next Last

What People Are Talking About On LetsRun

No top threads at the moment. Check back soon.

Reply Replying to

Username

Password

Leave the password field blank to post anonymously.

Post Preview

By posting you acknowledge that you have read and abide by our Terms and Conditions.

Remember me on this device.

Real Runners, Real Reviews

Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt. Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.

What shoe are you reviewing?

Rate your shoe

Overall Rating

Appearance

Comfort

Cushioning

Durability

Value

I would buy this shoe again

Yes No

Would you buy this shoe again?

One-line review. Optional. Your written review provides information to readers that numbers can't.

Email Optional. Required for t-shirt drawing.

Real runner reviews • Community-powered rankings

Down goes the Dow

This thread has already been deleted.

You have been subscribed.

Down goes the Dow

Jump To A Page

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow nearly retired

Block nearly retired

Follow carmine9

Block carmine9

Follow carmine9

Block carmine9

Follow this is it

Block this is it

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow this is it

Block this is it

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow nearly retired

Block nearly retired

Follow nearly retired

Block nearly retired

Follow Contrarian Indicator alert

Block Contrarian Indicator alert

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow nearly retired

Block nearly retired

Follow carmine9

Block carmine9

Follow carmine9

Block carmine9

Follow agip

Block agip

Follow Ghost of Igloi

Block Ghost of Igloi

Jump To A Page

This thread has already been deleted.

Reply Replying to

You have been subscribed.

Real Runners, Real Reviews