We're still stuck in the middle... one month up, one month down.
88 days since the low.
up 13% from that low
but
down 15% from the all-time high.
Big CPI print at 8:30 today....consensus is for another month of very little inflation on a m/m basis but still 8%+ on a y/y basis. I think October is when we will start lapping big jumps in the 2021 CPI and the Y/Y number will start falling.
I think the opposite. I think this winter inflation will spike up again due to heating oil and natural gas prices. Natural gas is about $8.25 compared to last year it was $5.46. Heating oil is $5.127. Last year it was $3.175. Both those numbers will increase as Russia tightens the screws against Western sanctions and interference in Ukraine. It’s going to be a rough winter.
We're still stuck in the middle... one month up, one month down.
88 days since the low.
up 13% from that low
but
down 15% from the all-time high.
Big CPI print at 8:30 today....consensus is for another month of very little inflation on a m/m basis but still 8%+ on a y/y basis. I think October is when we will start lapping big jumps in the 2021 CPI and the Y/Y number will start falling.
I think the opposite. I think this winter inflation will spike up again due to heating oil and natural gas prices. Natural gas is about $8.25 compared to last year it was $5.46. Heating oil is $5.127. Last year it was $3.175. Both those numbers will increase as Russia tightens the screws against Western sanctions and interference in Ukraine. It’s going to be a rough winter.
It will be interesting to see how the Administration spins this CPI with contrasting policies of record SPR releases and the Orwellian named Inflation Reduction Act.
It will be interesting to see how the Administration spins this CPI with contrasting policies of record SPR releases and the Orwellian named Inflation Reduction Act.
The really scary thing is inflation went up in spite of the gas tax holiday and strategic reserve releases that Biden and democratic governors have been using to artificially lower the price of gas heading into the midterms (I say artificially because those relief measures go away in December).
weird thing is that the market has been so strong that even now, down 2%, we're higher than where the market was....just last thursday of last week.
Which could mean, I suppose, that we could drop a long way here.
Probably will be a battle of the twitchy short timers who remember the 10% falls from our recent past....and the steadier hands who see the overall inflation picture continue to improve.
Probably the twitchy group is bigger than the steady group so we're in for some things.
It will be interesting to see how the Administration spins this CPI with contrasting policies of record SPR releases and the Orwellian named Inflation Reduction Act.
The really scary thing is inflation went up in spite of the gas tax holiday and strategic reserve releases that Biden and democratic governors have been using to artificially lower the price of gas heading into the midterms (I say artificially because those relief measures go away in December).
Viewed rationally those policies are handouts, increase consumer spending, and are by definition inflationary. Add to that the $Trillion of stimulus in the Chips Act and Clean Energy bills, you really are not helping the problem.
The really scary thing is inflation went up in spite of the gas tax holiday and strategic reserve releases that Biden and democratic governors have been using to artificially lower the price of gas heading into the midterms (I say artificially because those relief measures go away in December).
Viewed rationally those policies are handouts, increase consumer spending, and are by definition inflationary. Add to that the $Trillion of stimulus in the Chips Act and Clean Energy bills, you really are not helping the problem.
It's like the Democratic governors who are flush with cash from the American Rescue Plan that they never really needed who are giving the money to their constituents to "help deal with inflation", which in turn creates more inflation. The funny thing about the Inflation Reduction Act, is that the only part that reduces inflation is the provision that streamlines the MVP that Manchin got in the bill that the rest of the Democrats universally condemned.
Viewed rationally those policies are handouts, increase consumer spending, and are by definition inflationary. Add to that the $Trillion of stimulus in the Chips Act and Clean Energy bills, you really are not helping the problem.
It's like the Democratic governors who are flush with cash from the American Rescue Plan that they never really needed who are giving the money to their constituents to "help deal with inflation", which in turn creates more inflation. The funny thing about the Inflation Reduction Act, is that the only part that reduces inflation is the provision that streamlines the MVP that Manchin got in the bill that the rest of the Democrats universally condemned.
The insanity continues, not that the Republicans are really much different. The Fed and the politicians have been going down the road of fiscal irresponsibility for two decades.
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