Sally V,
Did you wake up on the side of the bed? Perhaps your Bullish view of the markets are working?
Poor girl, so sad.
Igy
Sally V,
Did you wake up on the side of the bed? Perhaps your Bullish view of the markets are working?
Poor girl, so sad.
Igy
LeT,
I see Mr. Spock's protege is back to assert his well defined numerological assessment to even my IQ.
Igy
Sally V,
There you go again! Wouldn't you know it, you pick out one small section of prose to support your view. Ha. Ha. Ha, And you acuse me of confirmation bias. OK. At least my confirmation bias will be proven correct.
Igy
I've learned from the best. :-)
Actually I liked that article and agree with it. The author and I have similar philosophies...the market will go down, but we stay invested in stocks...save dividends for buying after a fall...etc. Good stuff. Thanks for posting that.
And I don't sleep on the side of the bed.
"I have a spreadsheet that projects earnings"
B.........B.........B.........BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!
"there are valuation models that are highly reliable"
WRONG.
There are PRICING models that are highly reliable, but since external conditions and competition change perceptions of value, there is no such thing as a consistent valuation model.
Hence Big Dog's comment on Amazon stock.
Unbelievable,
Your analysis that " since external conditions and competition change perceptions of value, there is no such thing as a consistent valuation model," is nothing more than "this time is different."
Of course I believe your are very wrong and soon to be proven so.
You may want to read John Hussman's weekly market commentary of July 27th entitled "Memorize This, Earn A Dollar."
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Unbelievable,
Your analysis that " since external conditions and competition change perceptions of value, there is no such thing as a consistent valuation model," is nothing more than "this time is different."
Of course I believe your are very wrong and soon to be proven so.
You may want to read John Hussman's weekly market commentary of July 27th entitled "Memorize This, Earn A Dollar."
Igy
That's pretty funny coming from a guy whose entire message is "this time is different".
On a side note, you may wish to learn how to spell "you're".
Wait,
YOUR analysis of my message is wrong. It is not funny at all. That is, many are ignoring high market valuation and deteriorating internals. The same mistake that has been made over and over again by most investors.
Igy
You don't seem to understand the meaning of "reliable", as you have used it.
Look it up, and get back to me.
When you do, you will realize that this time IS different, as is EVERY time, when it comes to perceptions of value.
Don't argue with me, I'm right. The word you should have used was price, not value.
Unbelievable,
Oh, how foolish of me. The S&P 500 in current dollars will prove to be mispriced by today's investors. This time is the similar to March 2000 and October 2007, an overvalued, over Bullish, overpriced if you insist stock market.
You will learn it yourself in your own way.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Unbelievable,
Your analysis that " since external conditions and competition change perceptions of value, there is no such thing as a consistent valuation model," is nothing more than "this time is different."
Of course I believe your are very wrong and soon to be proven so.
You may want to read John Hussman's weekly market commentary of July 27th entitled "Memorize This, Earn A Dollar."
Igy
Igy, are you brave enough to define 'soon' for us? We all know the market will drop, but I don't pretend to know when. If you want to separate yourself from the Chicken Littles, give us a narrow window for the next correction/crash.
Sally V,
It is my view that there have been but a few times where stocks were as richly valued as they are today. The ability of the market to move higher is dependent upon investors risk preferences. Lately market trend uniformity has broken down, for example commodities and utilities down with technology and healthcare up. I believe a break in market trend uniformity shows a change in investors risk preferences.
None of the above reflects a view against stock ownership, or a belief that one should abandon a "buy and hold" strategy.
I believe that it will be a tougher time for stock and bond investors over the next ten years. Today's valuation of stocks and bonda drives that view.
If I had to bet, the market has peaked and the low in the market will be reached sometime over the next two years.
There you have it.
Igy
Sally V,
One point I wanted to add, is that I begain posting more recently to give a voice to the view it is not stocks anytime and all the time. I saw posted here views and comments that I thought were ungrounded and reflected an unrealistic view of the market. I have more to gain personally by a continued market move higher. Even so, I felt I should add a voice to this thread that reflects my view of truth.
Igy
So 'soon' is as much as two years. Ok, I'll take the under.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally V,
One point I wanted to add, is that I begain posting more recently to give a voice to the view it is not stocks anytime and all the time. I saw posted here views and comments that I thought were ungrounded and reflected an unrealistic view of the market. I have more to gain personally by a continued market move higher. Even so, I felt I should add a voice to this thread that reflects my view of truth.
Igy
I feel so lucky to have you looking out for me.
Sally V,
The last cycles played outvthis way: market peak March 2000, low October 2002; market peak October 2007, low 2009.
Igy
Lucky,
Like Bill O'Reilly.
Igy
Ghost, the difference is non-trivial, both in the context in which you use these words, and in an absolute sense.
Assuming that investing is in any way rational, relative value is why we have seen massive inflows into, for instance, historically highly-priced US equities.
Get it?
Bottom line: for a while now, from an investment perspective, the US equities market has been highly priced, but have you got a better alternative?
Unbelieveable,
Got it.
No, for the moment, I do not see better alternatives in the stock or bond world. People forget that cash is an asset class. Of course your earnings are minimal, subject to inflation, but does not fluctuate with the market. Cash is a store of value when the market is falling.
Igy