Oil prices are dropping after Trump said that talks with Iran are in their "final stages". But Trump also said that he was in no hurry to reach a deal. And then said that Iran had a new deadline of 2-3 days to reach a deal.
It is such a scam. Trump announces that a deal is close. Oil prices come down. Commodity brokers invest. Hostilities continue. Oil prices go back up. Rinse and repeat. Trump did the same with tariffs. Once that game got old, he moved onto the Iran war.
BP made $3.2 billion in profits in Q1, mostly from their oil trading division. Those results were more than doubled year over year. Q2 profits will be off the charts absent a shock resolution to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Oil companies that do not have exposure to the Persian Gulf are absolutely loving this market and feel like they are entitled to make back a lot of the losses they have endured during the Saudi induced bear markets when the Saudis flooded the market with oil to claw market share back from US frackers.
Meanwhile, Trump openly admits that the nuclear issue wrt to Iran is merely a face-saving ("public relations") one for him. He opines that Iran can't actually access the fissile material ("nuclear dust" as he bizarrely refers to it) in question without the US knowing about it and being easily able to prevent access.
Utterly unsurprising that Trump is willing to destabilize the whole world and sacrifice the well being of his own constituents (not to mention kill lots of innocent people) in order to avoid looking weak personally.
There obviously has to be more to it than this (structural and other pressures), but when you have a leader who enjoys unconditional support from 10s of millions of Americans, including a totally supine Congress, the personal factor is much more important. Trump is generally unpopular, but so are most politicians these days. Only Trump has a relatively large and uncrackable base of support. This will continue to matter.
Only Trump has a relatively large and uncrackable base of support. Not so large and not so uncrackable. Young MAGA is done with him.
You might want to check yesterday's primary results. "Young Maga" (if such a thing actually exists in real life) may be done with Trump, but the Republican Party sure ain't. And it's a two-party system.
One interesting thing has been happening. The US seized an Iranian linked shadow fleet tanker in the Indian ocean. The tanker was empty and heading back to Iran. Iran has been able to mitigate the US blockade in part by filling tankers with oil to be used a floating storage facilities. Iran has pretty much maxed out that storage capacity after de-mothballing a number of old tankers. Iran now needs tankers to come back from Asia to be able to continue to maintain oil production and minimize the need for shutting in wells. The US can very easily seize those vessels in the Indian ocean and has now started doing so. Not a big game changer, but a smart use of naval power in a conflict where most of the options are not very smart at this point.
im sorry, its three, maybe four weeks since you said the production / storage crunch was NOW.
and it clearly wasnt and isnt. Or, more likely, and this is a vital point, the iranian govt just doesnt care. we keep putting western values on their intended response, this is nonsense, they are islamic lunatics and in their minds they are winning bigly.
in this predictably asymetric warfare, the us cannot risk its assets, and its not just asymetric in terms of value / risk of military assets, its also asymetric in terms of public perception. Iran has turned of the internet, but if Trump loses a Naval asset then he is in such big trouble he cant risk them. all entirely predictable.
Look at the naval battle in preparation for Okinawa. The japanese got overwhelmed with disposable fighters and lost the Yamato, and then the yanks got overwhelmed by kamikazes (even more disposable, obv), but it didnt matter cos they had loads of relatively cheap naval assets (and ones with good survivability and damage control), not a handful of incredibly expensive ones.
Only Trump has a relatively large and uncrackable base of support. Not so large and not so uncrackable. Young MAGA is done with him.
You might want to check yesterday's primary results. "Young Maga" (if such a thing actually exists in real life) may be done with Trump, but the Republican Party sure ain't. And it's a two-party system.
Seems any argument I make is being deleted.
Look at this one. This is Israel. The topic of this thread
the national economy tends to wobble when oil prices rise. people and businesses pay more for commute and transport, without getting more fuel, and price goes up on anything using oil as an ingredient, eg, plastics.
and prices are already up on a bunch of stuff, and at some point people can't handle it all.
repeating myself, nukes are a sideshow for the gullible. at its heart this was a "hit," an assassination plot on iranian leadership. we had intell they'd be in a place at a time. we made darn sure peace talks didn't interfere with that timing. we bombed the place, killed the supreme leader and others.
this came right after rendering maduro. and now we're issuing warrants on former cuban leadership.
but in polite international society you just don't say you ordered a standalone iranian leadership hit, just because you could, so we did more bombing around it and pulled the nuclear issue out of tons of iranian sand we had bombed it under.
and now we're kind of vaguely stuck there because it's two sides of old stubborn men who don't want to admit they aren't fighting anymore, and we miscalculated on hormuz. and so periodically he babbles about restarting bombing the place and we need a ceasefire agreement. i don't think he actually wants it to restart because he sees he's knee deep in the same mud he campaigned against. but he's too stubborn to leave. so there we are.
repeating myself, nukes are a sideshow for the gullible. at its heart this was a "hit," an assassination plot on iranian leadership. we had intell they'd be in a place at a time. we made darn sure peace talks didn't interfere with that timing. we bombed the place, killed the supreme leader and others.
this came right after rendering maduro. and now we're issuing warrants on former cuban leadership.
but in polite international society you just don't say you ordered a standalone iranian leadership hit, just because you could, so we did more bombing around it and pulled the nuclear issue out of tons of iranian sand we had bombed it under.
and now we're kind of vaguely stuck there because it's two sides of old stubborn men who don't want to admit they aren't fighting anymore, and we miscalculated on hormuz. and so periodically he babbles about restarting bombing the place and we need a ceasefire agreement. i don't think he actually wants it to restart because he sees he's knee deep in the same mud he campaigned against. but he's too stubborn to leave. so there we are.
A "hit" is a good description. There is a mob boss in the WH.
On cue, oil prices rebound as we again approach Trump's twenty third deadline (or thereabouts).
Pakistan's army chief visited Tehran to try and push through some sort of extended ceasefire or get big concessions to reach a full peace treaty. Iran wants guarantees that a deal would end all fighting including any attacks by Israel. The US is not willing (or able) to include Israel in any deal. A recent tense phone call between Netanyahu and Trump after Trump said Netanyahu would do anything he tells him raises the specter of a rift between Israel and Trump over continuing the war.
Iran's supreme leader has rejected calls for sending enriched uranium out of the country, even an offer by Russia to take it. That is actually a step backwards as it looked like there may have been a middle ground where the US agrees to let Iran keep some of its enriched uranium while sending some to Russia. This is the news that got oil markets shooting back up.
Iran still insists on control of Hormuz and is even negotiating with Oman for a permanent agreement to charge tolls and control the strait. Iran also still wants all frozen assets released and sanctions dropped. Trump wants all Iranian nuclear facilities closed except for one used for civilian purposes (energy and medicine).
Iran still wants to peace process that moves in phases with an extended ceasefire allowing the Strait to reopen while the parties continue negotiations on Iran's nukes. The US wants a memorandum of understanding in place that is the basis for a peace treaty that resolves all issues. Giving up the blockade and waiting months to see whether a deal can be reached on nukes would put US forces in a position where they will need to rotate out a carrier group for maintenance and troop rotation and allows Iran to rebuild defenses. It was reported yesterday that Iran has been reconstituting its military production much faster than expected.
Oil prices are dropping after Trump said that talks with Iran are in their "final stages". But Trump also said that he was in no hurry to reach a deal. And then said that Iran had a new deadline of 2-3 days to reach a deal.
i wonder how much of this is like AI-driven robot trading. like i am seeing a fair amount of taking news literally in terms of markets. what were last quarter's profits (even if iran and inflation are about to destroy them). the war is almost over (for the 20th time). traders have to be a little cynical to end up right side of the market. so i half wonder if some of this is like naive bots trading who actually take trump literally. they are trained if someone says a nasty war is ending that should affect the oil price, you lower the price. even if it's childlike to trust that.
i mean, last i read, the iranians had pulled a black power move and demanded reparations for the damage. so trump is being honest when he acts exasperated. and they know which buttons to push here politically -- reparations! and they have no obligation to pull him out of the grease. and they know we've burned through too many missiles. and they probably like the new hormuz tollbooth.
why should iran agree to anything. they know the war is unpopular here. they know that beyond the initial strikes we don't have an exit strategy.
and they effectively have a ceasefire now without agreeing anything. we're not bombing. they only occasionally annoy us or the gulf. and they have shifted how hormuz is handled.
so why do they formally agree to anything to get a paper ceasefire when the war is basically over? but trump has his wish list he never got -- and hasn't earned on the battlefield -- and wants to save face. so i think while playing tough he will start pulling assets. he will declare victory. he'll say some nasty things about iran and chatter about imaginary future nukes.
but the only way he's getting a nukes agreement is revive obama's deal. pay them to stop. i don't believe he would as all his brand is trolling dems and he has to pretend ending obama's deal and all this bombing "worked."
why should iran agree to anything. they know the war is unpopular here. they know that beyond the initial strikes we don't have an exit strategy.
and they effectively have a ceasefire now without agreeing anything. we're not bombing. they only occasionally annoy us or the gulf. and they have shifted how hormuz is handled.
so why do they formally agree to anything to get a paper ceasefire when the war is basically over? but trump has his wish list he never got -- and hasn't earned on the battlefield -- and wants to save face. so i think while playing tough he will start pulling assets. he will declare victory. he'll say some nasty things about iran and chatter about imaginary future nukes.
but the only way he's getting a nukes agreement is revive obama's deal. pay them to stop. i don't believe he would as all his brand is trolling dems and he has to pretend ending obama's deal and all this bombing "worked."
As bad as this war is for USA -- the world actually -- I am still of the view Israel wants to use US to wreck Iran as a regional power and has the power to get US to do its bidding. So the hot war will heat up again.
Iran and Oman are actively discussing a permanent security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is pushing to institutionalize and normalize a transit fee or toll on commercial shipping vessels navigating the narrow waterway. According to an Iranian diplomatic envoy, the proposed system is designed to secure the long-term positioning of Iran and Oman as the primary regulators of the strait, effectively transforming a temporary leverage point from the recent military conflict into a permanent sovereign right.
The Irish participants of the Global Sumud Flotilla who were illegally detained by Israeli authorities earlier this week have been deported from Israel. "All of the Irish will leave [on] Turkish airplane via Turkey today," Suhad Bishara, lawyer for the flotilla detainees, told RTÉ Radio's Today with David McCullagh on Thursday. Bishara further said: "The image that we have is that there was very systematic and patterned violence against participants. "Many of them were in severe pain, and we know of three at least were hospitalized last night and released later on." Bishara said many complained of humiliation, while some complained of sexual harassment. "We can say for sure, from our experience in the past several years representing Flotilla participants, this was the most severe in the last ten years or so in terms of violence, degrading, humiliating treatment." Bishara said the interception and detention of the Flotilla participants was "in clear violation of international law." Ireland's Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Helen McEntee said earlier on Thursday that the Irish citizens will be met by representatives from Ireland's Embassy in Turkey "to ensure continuity of support and assistance upon arrival." Global Sumud Flotilla group confirmed on Thursday: "After repeated attempts to demoralize, criminalize and suppress global solidarity, israel succumbs to its own failures and releases our 428 activists." Among the Flotilla participants whom Israel detained are more than a dozen Irish citizens, including Margaret Ester Connolly, the sister of the President of Ireland, Catherine Connolly. Sign up to IrishCentral's newsletter to stay up-to-date with everything Irish! Subscribe to IrishCentral The 54-boat Global Sumud Flotilla launched its final leg on May 14, bound for Gaza to deliver food and aid to Palestinians under Israeli occupation. Israeli authorities intercepted the boats in international waters earlier this week and detained the participants. On Tuesday, Ireland's Taoiseach Micheál Martin responded, saying: "I strongly condemn the interception of boats in the Sumud flotilla in international waters and the detention of those on board by Israeli military forces, and call for their immediate release. "Meanwhile, the Government has raised concerns for the welfare of those detained by the Israeli authorities. "Such interceptions and detentions are wholly unacceptable and must stop. The Government will also discuss with EU partners how we can ensure the safety and wellbeing of our citizens."
Iran and Oman are actively discussing a permanent security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is pushing to institutionalize and normalize a transit fee or toll on commercial shipping vessels navigating the narrow waterway. According to an Iranian diplomatic envoy, the proposed system is designed to secure the long-term positioning of Iran and Oman as the primary regulators of the strait, effectively transforming a temporary leverage point from the recent military conflict into a permanent sovereign right.
The Irish participants of the Global Sumud Flotilla who were illegally detained by Israeli authorities earlier this week have been deported from Israel. "All of the Irish will leave [on] Turkish airplane via Turkey today," Suhad Bishara, lawyer for the flotilla detainees, told RTÉ Radio's Today with David McCullagh on Thursday. Bishara further said: "The image that we have is that there was very systematic and patterned violence against participants. "Many of them were in severe pain, and we know of three at least were hospitalized last night and released later on." Bishara said many complained of humiliation, while some complained of sexual harassment. "We can say for sure, from our experience in the past several years representing Flotilla participants, this was the most severe in the last ten years or so in terms of violence, degrading, humiliating treatment." Bishara said the interception and detention of the Flotilla participants was "in clear violation of international law." Ireland's Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Helen McEntee said earlier on Thursday that the Irish citizens will be met by representatives from Ireland's Embassy in Turkey "to ensure continuity of support and assistance upon arrival." Global Sumud Flotilla group confirmed on Thursday: "After repeated attempts to demoralize, criminalize and suppress global solidarity, israel succumbs to its own failures and releases our 428 activists." Among the Flotilla participants whom Israel detained are more than a dozen Irish citizens, including Margaret Ester Connolly, the sister of the President of Ireland, Catherine Connolly. Sign up to IrishCentral's newsletter to stay up-to-date with everything Irish! Subscribe to IrishCentral The 54-boat Global Sumud Flotilla launched its final leg on May 14, bound for Gaza to deliver food and aid to Palestinians under Israeli occupation. Israeli authorities intercepted the boats in international waters earlier this week and detained the participants. On Tuesday, Ireland's Taoiseach Micheál Martin responded, saying: "I strongly condemn the interception of boats in the Sumud flotilla in international waters and the detention of those on board by Israeli military forces, and call for their immediate release. "Meanwhile, the Government has raised concerns for the welfare of those detained by the Israeli authorities. "Such interceptions and detentions are wholly unacceptable and must stop. The Government will also discuss with EU partners how we can ensure the safety and wellbeing of our citizens."
Iran and Oman are actively discussing a permanent security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is pushing to institutionalize and normalize a transit fee or toll on commercial shipping vessels navigating the narrow waterway. According to an Iranian diplomatic envoy, the proposed system is designed to secure the long-term positioning of Iran and Oman as the primary regulators of the strait, effectively transforming a temporary leverage point from the recent military conflict into a permanent sovereign right.
Iran and Oman are actively discussing a permanent security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is pushing to institutionalize and normalize a transit fee or toll on commercial shipping vessels navigating the narrow waterway. According to an Iranian diplomatic envoy, the proposed system is designed to secure the long-term positioning of Iran and Oman as the primary regulators of the strait, effectively transforming a temporary leverage point from the recent military conflict into a permanent sovereign right.
DJT Junior is getting married this weekend in the Bahamas. When asked whether he will attend, Trump the original said that he had a little thing called Iran and may not be able to attend his son's wedding. Did Trump just tip off Iran to a possible Iran attack this weekend?
DJT Junior is getting married this weekend in the Bahamas. When asked whether he will attend, Trump the original said that he had a little thing called Iran and may not be able to attend his son's wedding. Did Trump just tip off Iran to a possible Iran attack this weekend?
Would not put it past him, This is why the Oligarchs tried to keep him out of power. He does everything they demand but he too oft opens his mouth and lets truths out they want kept hidden
DJT Junior is getting married this weekend in the Bahamas. When asked whether he will attend, Trump the original said that he had a little thing called Iran and may not be able to attend his son's wedding. Did Trump just tip off Iran to a possible Iran attack this weekend?
No, i think he just admitted that it is far too dangerous for him to travel withbeasily predictrd plans.
