Down goes the Dow

carmine9 wrote:

agip wrote:

I don't think the market will care much whether it is 75 or 100 bps...getting up to 3 or 3.5% is already baked in. Whether we get there in 3 hikes or 2 hikes...isn't hugely important. The instant the fed says 'ok we are going to be more data dependent now' is what markets are waiting for. It's all what the fed says and what the data show. And the data are largely deflationary.

Nice opening rally today...up 90 bps now. Good retail sales numbers out. Suggests the consumer may be grumpy as all get out...but is still spending. And consumer spending is a massive piece of the puzzle. Plus import export prices fell a bit and NY state reported decent econ activity.

If T-bills go from 3.00% to 4.00% won't money leave equities?

agip wrote:

carmine9 wrote:

If T-bills go from 3.00% to 4.00% won't money leave equities?

it's all about what is baked in. And that's never clear. But the market is assuming, I believe, that by the end of the calendar year, the Fed rate will be around 3.5%. And then in 2023 drop a bit.

So nah stocks might do fine if we stay on that route, because that's the baseline assumption now.

nearly retired wrote:

agip wrote:

it's all about what is baked in. And that's never clear. But the market is assuming, I believe, that by the end of the calendar year, the Fed rate will be around 3.5%. And then in 2023 drop a bit.

So nah stocks might do fine if we stay on that route, because that's the baseline assumption now.

agip, it's not over until the close of trading today, but it looks like I will lose our bet. Remind me the name of the charity I agreed to pay out to?

nearly retired wrote:

agip wrote:

it's all about what is baked in. And that's never clear. But the market is assuming, I believe, that by the end of the calendar year, the Fed rate will be around 3.5%. And then in 2023 drop a bit.

So nah stocks might do fine if we stay on that route, because that's the baseline assumption now.

agip, it's not over until the close of trading today, but it looks like I will lose our bet. Remind me the name of the charity I agreed to pay out to?

carmine9 wrote:

nearly retired wrote:

agip, it's not over until the close of trading today, but it looks like I will lose our bet. Remind me the name of the charity I agreed to pay out to?

Baked in?

Any evidence of this?

agip wrote:

carmine9 wrote:

Baked in?

Any evidence of this?

just giving you the conventional wisdom. take it or leave it.

carmine9 wrote:

My guess is that this "rally" will fizzle before close today

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

carmine9 wrote:

My guess is that this "rally" will fizzle before close today

Don't say that! Let's see Dow, Nas and S&P all end the day up 2-plus %! Market is rocking now. Heck - I wouldn't mind if Hussman was up a bit at the end of the day.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

Don't say that! Let's see Dow, Nas and S&P all end the day up 2-plus %! Market is rocking now. Heck - I wouldn't mind if Hussman was up a bit at the end of the day.

Two things, if the current daily trend continues thru the close Hussman should do better than a short fund. Furthermore, the Hussman fund should continue to outperform the Dow over the next two years, and by quite a bit.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Furthermore, the Hussman fund should continue to outperform the Dow over the next two years, and by quite a bit.

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Two things, if the current daily trend continues thru the close Hussman should do better than a short fund. Furthermore, the Hussman fund should continue to outperform the Dow over the next two years, and by quite a bit.

Well, that would be QUITE A CHANGE. Hussman is down a NEGATIVE 5% over the last 10 years. The other markets are maybe up about 400% in that time period.

agip wrote:

looks like we'll be down a smidge for the week and up a smidge for the last 30 days.

Not bad for a bear market.

Johannes wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Furthermore, the Hussman fund should continue to outperform the Dow over the next two years, and by quite a bit.

Idiotic.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:

Well, that would be QUITE A CHANGE. Hussman is down a NEGATIVE 5% over the last 10 years. The other markets are maybe up about 400% in that time period.

Who cares? Certainly not me, my time with the fund has outperformed most markets.

seattle prattle wrote:

agip wrote:

looks like we'll be down a smidge for the week and up a smidge for the last 30 days.

Not bad for a bear market.

I tend to think this may be a signal that the worst is priced into the current level and it may be safe to start dipping one's toes into the water, albeit gradually.