Glad I'm going to Europe later in the year - things won't seem outrageously expensive I suppose.
Where are you going? Maybe we will overlap. Planning to go somewhere in the fall, destination TBD... Wouldn't it be neat to accidentally bump into each other. I met Antonio Cabral many years ago in Lisbon after connecting on here; very cool experience.
Glad I'm going to Europe later in the year - things won't seem outrageously expensive I suppose.
Where are you going? Maybe we will overlap. Planning to go somewhere in the fall, destination TBD... Wouldn't it be neat to accidentally bump into each other. I met Antonio Cabral many years ago in Lisbon after connecting on here; very cool experience.
cool. I'd rather not reveal anything personal...but I'm really looking forward to it. Haven't been to Europe since I dunno 2018 or so. It's been good to explore North America but I miss the sophistication of Europe.
cool. I'd rather not reveal anything personal...but I'm really looking forward to it.
Understood. Maybe you can give a coded hint when it gets closer, and I'll do the same. And one of us is settling a gambling debt with the other this Saturday... :-)
Ray Dalio just posted something about how critical it is to not bet on things always going up. He seems to think there is a real possibility we are at the beginning of a true financial crisis, not just a recession, but a complete paradigm shift, a changing world order, etc. I've read some of what he's written in his books, and it IS eerily similar to what we're seeing now, but it's just very hard to truly think the US and World are essentially going to default on all their debt and our financial system is going to change at the fundamental level into something completely different from what it is now. I understand that sort of thing does happen and has happened throughout history... It's just difficult to think a once in a several hundred year event is happening right now.
Regardless, I have spread myself out pretty thinly and am going to start to try to be a bit more defensive. I still expect stocks to be higher a year from now, but I do think it's possible (though not probable) we end the 2022 down 30% from all time highs. I have a tough time seeing how we're not back up to 4800 in 18 month's time, however. The investor class will continue to make money and continue to invest.
Ray Dalio just posted something about how critical it is to not bet on things always going up. He seems to think there is a real possibility we are at the beginning of a true financial crisis, not just a recession, but a complete paradigm shift, a changing world order, etc. I've read some of what he's written in his books, and it IS eerily similar to what we're seeing now, but it's just very hard to truly think the US and World are essentially going to default on all their debt and our financial system is going to change at the fundamental level into something completely different from what it is now. I understand that sort of thing does happen and has happened throughout history... It's just difficult to think a once in a several hundred year event is happening right now.
Regardless, I have spread myself out pretty thinly and am going to start to try to be a bit more defensive. I still expect stocks to be higher a year from now, but I do think it's possible (though not probable) we end the 2022 down 30% from all time highs. I have a tough time seeing how we're not back up to 4800 in 18 month's time, however. The investor class will continue to make money and continue to invest.
You have had 1000s of "experts" saying to expect a pardigm shift for decades now. And yet the market keeps going up. How many experts have said in the last 10 years the market will collapse? And look where we are.
Ray Dalio just posted something about how critical it is to not bet on things always going up. He seems to think there is a real possibility we are at the beginning of a true financial crisis, not just a recession, but a complete paradigm shift, a changing world order, etc. I've read some of what he's written in his books, and it IS eerily similar to what we're seeing now, but it's just very hard to truly think the US and World are essentially going to default on all their debt and our financial system is going to change at the fundamental level into something completely different from what it is now. I understand that sort of thing does happen and has happened throughout history... It's just difficult to think a once in a several hundred year event is happening right now.
Regardless, I have spread myself out pretty thinly and am going to start to try to be a bit more defensive. I still expect stocks to be higher a year from now, but I do think it's possible (though not probable) we end the 2022 down 30% from all time highs. I have a tough time seeing how we're not back up to 4800 in 18 month's time, however. The investor class will continue to make money and continue to invest.
I wouldn’t trust anyone who shows up to the Davos CNBC interview in a mink coat.
Glad I'm going to Europe later in the year - things won't seem outrageously expensive I suppose.
Where are you going? Maybe we will overlap. Planning to go somewhere in the fall, destination TBD... Wouldn't it be neat to accidentally bump into each other. I met Antonio Cabral many years ago in Lisbon after connecting on here; very cool experience.
Hey nearly retired, if you're ever in the Austin area I'll meet up with you. Recommend not in the summer.
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In my Texas coaching years I had to take two athletes to the ER. Both times after cross country races, one in Georgetown and the other in San Antonio; October and September. Rio Grande Valley by McAllen quite a bit better for long distance running. Still hot, but dry air from Mexican desert. Afternoon practice for distance runners was always at 3:30 pm. Morning practice at 6:00 am was more humid, but temperatures 20 degrees lower.
this market is so soggy...any little blip up is sold off, slowly. It's like watching a sandcastle erode.
....
It seems to be heavily range bound at the moment is my take-away. The thing is, every time it bounces off the bottom, I have these delusions that the rebound will have legs, you know, like the bottom in spring 2020. But alas, that doesn't seem to have the staying power, at least not yet.
I think the threat of a bona fide recession is too real in people's minds for any but the most adventurous to take large bets on the long side yet.
That, and maybe some of that upward bounce off the bottom is in part due to shorts closing their positions, which is of course, a bounce of sorts itself.
The reluctance to not be overexposed going into the CPI announcement tomorrow occurred to me as well. I'll have to check what time that gets announced.
Futures tepidly up at the moment, but not decisively so - essentially flat, fwiw.
this market is so soggy...any little blip up is sold off, slowly. It's like watching a sandcastle erode.
....
It seems to be heavily range bound at the moment is my take-away. The thing is, every time it bounces off the bottom, I have these delusions that the rebound will have legs, you know, like the bottom in spring 2020. But alas, that doesn't seem to have the staying power, at least not yet.
I think the threat of a bona fide recession is too real in people's minds for any but the most adventurous to take large bets on the long side yet.
That, and maybe some of that upward bounce off the bottom is in part due to shorts closing their positions, which is of course, a bounce of sorts itself.
The reluctance to not be overexposed going into the CPI announcement tomorrow occurred to me as well. I'll have to check what time that gets announced.
Futures tepidly up at the moment, but not decisively so - essentially flat, fwiw.
And the FED is set to announce interest rate increase July 26 I believe. Apparently 75 bp is priced in at present since that's what's expected, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a small drop (1% or so) if we do get another 75 bp increase. I think the market would rise if it's only 50 bp.
I don't see the broader US or global economy improving much any time soon. Only major event that would cause that would be something like Putin dying, which could be possible if he has cancer or something but is unlikely. Mainly I expect the market to neither gain nor drop a whole lot over the next month but instead just kind of bop around it's current levels +/- about 3%.
Highest rate in 40 years. Just keeps climbing. I guess Agip was wrong about it retreating. I would really like to know what the Biden adminsitration is doing to bring it down because it ain't working and just blaming it on Putin or Trump sure as heck is not working either . Quit passing the blame. Take some responsibility for a change.
I would really like to know what the Biden adminsitration is doing to bring it down because it ain't working and just blaming it on Putin or Trump sure as heck is not working either . Quit passing the blame. Take some responsibility for a change.
Biden should take responsibility for global inflation? That's an interesting perspective...
This year's inflation might work out nicely for us as we ease into retirement this year and we start to collect a defined benefits pension that's indexed to inflation. Provided the pension starts paying out this year, we will get a CPI-indexed bump at the beginning of 2023, which would get our retirement started more comfortably than otherwise. If retirement gets delayed into next year, we will miss that bump and start a couple of steps behind the start line...
