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Swaglord369 wrote:
Computer Geek wrote:
The inflation we're seeing is ultimately rooted in all the "free money" everyone got during covid and high oil prices. Oil is a ubiquitous part of our economy that ~everything is dependent on. It wasn't Biden et al. who gave everyone free money in 2020, but Biden et al. have done things like shut down the pipeline, and it is debatable that the war in Ukraine would be happening if we had a Republican president. I would argue that we should have started taking every action possible to ramp up cheap oil production/transportation once Russian invaded Ukraine. That hasn't happened. High fuel prices will kill the economy if they aren't taken care of soon. Just today I had an employee tell me she would leave this job if gas prices continued to climb. Our work site is fairly remote, and it's just not worth it when gas is more than $5.00/gallon... We're supposed to hit $6/gallon by mid summer. This will be disastrous.
Don’t forget that most Americans weren’t going out drinking, going on cruises etc. So instead of spending on frivolous Bs as usual, they were somewhat forced to save 1000’s of dollars over a year or more. Throw in the enhanced unemployment and 1400 checks etc. Then release that pent up demand on supply chains as covid faded… of course this would happen.
Now geopolitical factors artificially decreasing oil/gas supplies and hurting supply chains even more. Perfect storm for inflation. It’s all in it together.
To blame Biden who legit just took office on Jan 20 2021, for all of that above plus many more factors, is silly and completely wrong.
Anyway back to the markets. My only winner XLE just took a dive. Guess I’ll be working this 9-5 into my 40s at this rate :$
Good points. There's no one single factor. It definitely is a bunch of things compounding together. Hopefully the war in Ukraine ends soon and/or Putin dies somehow. That would help a lot.
Still think the US should be doing everything possible to get fuel prices back down. That should be a major priority right now, which I don't think it is for the Biden administration.
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This might cheer you guys up. Of course no telling what will happen but some room for optimism ....
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Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:
This might cheer you guys up. Of course no telling what will happen but some room for optimism ....
Their (B of A’s) forecast looks remarkably similar to mine. They suggest to nibble at 3600, bite at 3300 and gorge at 3000. If we see 3000 I will be deploying all my free cash back into US equities. Maybe even using some leverage.
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nearly retired wrote:
Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:
This might cheer you guys up. Of course no telling what will happen but some room for optimism ....
Their (B of A’s) forecast looks remarkably similar to mine. They suggest to nibble at 3600, bite at 3300 and gorge at 3000. If we see 3000 I will be deploying all my free cash back into US equities. Maybe even using some leverage.
If there is a "wave" I would make sure to primarily go with index funds to ensure catching the wave. You mainly want to just match the market. I know some here like to go with individual stocks like Carmine and others but you might miss out with some of those.
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Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:
nearly retired wrote:
Their (B of A’s) forecast looks remarkably similar to mine. They suggest to nibble at 3600, bite at 3300 and gorge at 3000. If we see 3000 I will be deploying all my free cash back into US equities. Maybe even using some leverage.
If there is a "wave" I would make sure to primarily go with index funds to ensure catching the wave. You mainly want to just match the market. I know some here like to go with individual stocks like Carmine and others but you might miss out with some of those.
It's all gambling.
Indiv stocks paid off incredibly well for me in 2020.
Hurt me in 2021.
2022 has been bad for indiv stocks and index funds
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Swaglord369 wrote:
Computer Geek wrote:
The inflation we're seeing is ultimately rooted in all the "free money" everyone got during covid and high oil prices. Oil is a ubiquitous part of our economy that ~everything is dependent on. It wasn't Biden et al. who gave everyone free money in 2020, but Biden et al. have done things like shut down the pipeline, and it is debatable that the war in Ukraine would be happening if we had a Republican president. I would argue that we should have started taking every action possible to ramp up cheap oil production/transportation once Russian invaded Ukraine. That hasn't happened. High fuel prices will kill the economy if they aren't taken care of soon. Just today I had an employee tell me she would leave this job if gas prices continued to climb. Our work site is fairly remote, and it's just not worth it when gas is more than $5.00/gallon... We're supposed to hit $6/gallon by mid summer. This will be disastrous.
Don’t forget that most Americans weren’t going out drinking, going on cruises etc. So instead of spending on frivolous Bs as usual, they were somewhat forced to save 1000’s of dollars over a year or more. Throw in the enhanced unemployment and 1400 checks etc. Then release that pent up demand on supply chains as covid faded… of course this would happen.
Now geopolitical factors artificially decreasing oil/gas supplies and hurting supply chains even more. Perfect storm for inflation. It’s all in it together.
To blame Biden who legit just took office on Jan 20 2021, for all of that above plus many more factors, is silly and completely wrong.
Anyway back to the markets. My only winner XLE just took a dive. Guess I’ll be working this 9-5 into my 40s at this rate :$
Joe Biden can’t manage daily duties let alone unleash the worst inflation in 40 years. Sure he has done plenty of things that didn’t help, but so did the guy before him, the one before that, and don’t forget the war monger.
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seattle prattle wrote:
Post of the day.😹
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Swaglord369 wrote:
Don’t forget that most Americans weren’t going out drinking, going on cruises etc. So instead of spending on frivolous Bs as usual, they were somewhat forced to save 1000’s of dollars over a year or more. Throw in the enhanced unemployment and 1400 checks etc. Then release that pent up demand on supply chains as covid faded… of course this would happen.
Now geopolitical factors artificially decreasing oil/gas supplies and hurting supply chains even more. Perfect storm for inflation. It’s all in it together.
To blame Biden who legit just took office on Jan 20 2021, for all of that above plus many more factors, is silly and completely wrong.
Anyway back to the markets. My only winner XLE just took a dive. Guess I’ll be working this 9-5 into my 40s at this rate :$
Joe Biden can’t manage daily duties let alone unleash the worst inflation in 40 years. Sure he has done plenty of things that didn’t help, but so did the guy before him, the one before that, and don’t forget the war monger.
Joe does nothing as far as calling the shots.
His admin and chief of staff do.
And they are responsible for this disaster
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nearly retired wrote:
Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:
This might cheer you guys up. Of course no telling what will happen but some room for optimism ....
Their (B of A’s) forecast looks remarkably similar to mine. They suggest to nibble at 3600, bite at 3300 and gorge at 3000. If we see 3000 I will be deploying all my free cash back into US equities. Maybe even using some leverage.
All Bull Markets are alike; every Bear Market is a Bear Market in its own way( sorry Leo ). Since 1957, the average Bear Market is -34%, and the median is also -34% ! The Stdev is 12.
By the way, I've used Un coup de des ( Mallarme ) as a handle in the past. Yes, I'm an effete intellectual snob.
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la gente esta muy loca wrote:
nearly retired wrote:
Their (B of A’s) forecast looks remarkably similar to mine. They suggest to nibble at 3600, bite at 3300 and gorge at 3000. If we see 3000 I will be deploying all my free cash back into US equities. Maybe even using some leverage.
All Bull Markets are alike; every Bear Market is a Bear Market in its own way( sorry Leo ). Since 1957, the average Bear Market is -34%, and the median is also -34% ! The Stdev is 12.
By the way, I've used Un coup de des ( Mallarme ) as a handle in the past. Yes, I'm an effete intellectual snob.
I would assume this market bears the weight of more bubbles than the last two. 😹
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Bitcoin under $20k at $19,190 a quote ago. Moving closer to The Idiots all-in target.🤡
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“Bitcoin fell as low as $18,739.50 and stayed below $20,000 on Saturday, according to CoinDesk, losing 72% of its value from its high in November.”
“The future is crunk….we’re going to The League….”
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$17,750……
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Yikes! I think we have one more leg down for btc bottom. Some liquidations. Worth buying soon.
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carmine9 wrote:
It's all gambling.
But not a coin toss.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
$17,750……
Have to admit I'm feeling a tiny bit smug because I had a couple people in my life kind of scoff at me when I told them I wouldn't be in bitcoin and that it's a terrible long term investment. People do no understand value...
I actually think crypto crashing is kind of a good sign. It means all that money (real or not) that was tied up in crypto is now somewhere else. I think it will likely be put somewhere else now too moving forward rather than back into crypto. Could be a good thing for the stock market.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
$17,750……
$19,800
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Happy Father's Day to my fellow MFers!
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