Down goes the Dow

naz now down 34%

people getting their heads ripped off

Another massacre.

S+P down 3%.

The few stocks I still hold are all down 4% to 8%

LOL crazy like a fox. EMD down 2.5% on the day to a new all-time low, I believe.

Igloi, agip, nearly—tell me again what it is that I don’t understand about closed-ended funds LOL

I would like to hear gente’s opinion on EMD

Dishing it out to everybody. Ruthless lol. So you’re trading FX and think there’s easier trades there now than equities?

LOL And I, a dullard... LOL

Nearly, notwithstanding your lack of perspicacity and playfulness, what again was your sp500 target, and are you sticking to it?

it's all about how to put the odds in your favor. Buying when the VIX is 35 puts the odds in your favor. Doesn't guarantee anything, that's for sure.

Key is to not give a darn about the next 3-6 months of returns but care a lot about where the market will be in 2027.

In the meantime, we suffer.

Not in general, but certain ones stand out.

What is amazing is the sheer depth of ignorance and sloth among “those in the know”. This takes things to extremes, increasing reactions when things break. Nobody could have predicted this inflation, right? Well plenty did. Nobody could have predicted the SNB’s action, right? Well plenty did, esp with USD at serious highs.

CB’s are like agip, tilting at ideological windmills, easy to predict if you can suspend disbelief for long enough, something people find very hard to do.

As a reminder, I shared the following forecast on 9 May:

ibb.co

Slide20

Image Slide20 hosted in ImgBB

Link:ibb.co/L0Btnkm

For clarity, I expect the SP500 to track between the upper (green) rough curve and the lower (red) rough-drawn curve, with the most likely trajectory expected to lie within the two rough black curves. In other words, I expect things to probably bottom out somewhere between 2400 to 3200, potentially as low as ~ 1700. I also expect that we will most likely see new market highs (> 4800ish) sometime between the end of 2024 and later 2025, but potentially much sooner (late 2023) or much later (many years out.

I intend to start slowly buying back in if / when the index drops below 3400, as I am already on the record saying. Meanwhile, I stand pat, with our investment accounts roughly 50% in cash and only ~ 10% in US equities.

S+P down 23% YTD.

bond yield reversal just now....started the day up, which hurt stocks but have since reversed and are now down.

I'm obviously flailing here but if yields fall that could eend a lot of support to stonks, in particular tech stocks.

I will troll you when it goes the other way. By the way, every long stock is down more than that.

*lend support*

LOL of course you will, because you are childish. This far I am the only one to have said anything substantive about EMD. You? Crickets. Overgrown juvenile boomer LOL

Right, thanks. Do you plan to buy indexes or individuals, stocks or long calls? Or some of everything?

LOL here’s some more substance: From April to May, EMD net investment income fell from .0644 to .0619, while return of capital rose from .0256 to .0281

Not only is it junk, it’s becoming worse junk by the day LOL

Index ETFs. Keeping it simple because I'm (admittedly) stupider than the markets, as acknowledged by my prior, now retired, long-term screen name, which still persists in the title of the graph I shared.

ok capitalists. US is down 12% in 8 trading sessions by my count.

does that count as a market crash? Is that blood on the streets? Is that capitulation?