Wharton is a business school. Very little relevance to international military operations.
There are many that have graduated from a West Point that think Trump is an idiot.
Trump never went to class. He was given an honorary degree in real estate for working fulltime for his dad. His dad vouched for him (bribed them with a few million) that he knew real estate. A real estate degree requires math skills, which Trump doesn't have. As first wife Ivana said, he is so dumb on math that she had to do that for him.
Trump is marching the US toward being an investment pariah. Imagine having a multi billion dollar investment that produces jobs and energy that was already government approved and is nearly completed. The admin has said they are trying to promote jobs and energy. Then to have it arbitrarily shut down because the president dislikes the look of it. Then spending months and millions in court fighting it and still being uncertain because SCOTUS often rules for the president in spite of law and precedent.
No wonder oil companies are not interested in investing in Venezuela. Trump is no different from Maduro in his trying to make sure he personally profits from any business arrangement. We can see this in US manufacturing also as businesses sit and wait to invest because rules keep changing by whims in social media posts. Banks just got told they need to cut their most profitable revenue stream, but no law is cited. Donate millions or offer a real estate deal (bribes). Then it is more likely to get projects done, but no guarantee. Make America corrupt like never before while also killing the future economy.
As if all of the above wasn’t enough to show Trump's incompetence when it comes to the economy, he is now trying to file bogus charges against J. Powell to undermine Fed Bank independence. The charges will fail just like all his other bogus incompetent prosecutions. But it undermines the US as a safe place for investment. Powell's term is up in 4 months anyway, so this is nothing more than a Trump temper tantrum that would have been resolved soon anyway.
The capturing of Maduro and then talking about taking over the oil in the country while leaving the authoritarian regime in place has also alienated other countries. Oil executives have stated that Venezuela is uninvestable in its current state. Another economic fail.
Inflation numbers are out and it is flat and above target. Job growth is well below target. These are numbers from people installed to be more friendly to Trump than the people he fired for not liking their numbers. So not only are these numbers less than trustworthy, they aren't even good.
Supposedly, Trump was elected for the economy. Yesterday he whined and lied like a spoiled child for an hour about the economy. Not sure if there is a single fact in the speech other than his name.
The US will be at war with Iran within a week and possibly even starting this weekend. US is moving troops out of bases in the Middle East that are within Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. State department has issued travel advisories for non-military personnel to stay away from US bases in the region. Air refueling tankers have been moved to Qatar. Basically the same set up as when the US launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The US has kept strike carriers away from the Persian Gulf. This is probably a sign that the US is planning another limited air campaign in hopes of destabilizing the regime.
Netanyahu is facing elections and wants Trump to take out Iran's regime to boost his chances. Russia has probably given Trump an implicit green light as Russia has gotten all it can out of Iran in terms of military support. Iran's economy is collapsing and will not be able to produce weapons and drones for Russia. Russia has always had a love hate relationship with Iran. They appreciate being able to project power into the Middle East through Iran, but hate Iran's funding of fundamentalist Islamic resistance groups which are a threat to Russia's predominantly Muslim regions.
Iran may be willing to play along again like they did with the prior attacks on their nuclear facilities and may agree to make some concession to the US after a short air campaign. But if the US takes the gloves off and launches wide ranging attacks on the regime and IRGC assets, Iran could retaliate by launching attacks on Saudi and Emirati oil facilities. A few missile barrages on oil terminals like Ras Tanura and Juaymah. The Saudis would retaliate by doing them same by bombing Khark Island. And if the attacks expanded to refineries, world oil prices would at least double if not triple within a few weeks.
. And if the attacks expanded to refineries, world oil prices would at least double if not triple within a few weeks.
And this would make investment in Venezuela seem like a better prospect, but the oil companies aren't stupid. Nobody's committing to a major investment there until the environment is stable.
The US will be at war with Iran within a week and possibly even starting this weekend. US is moving troops out of bases in the Middle East that are within Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. State department has issued travel advisories for non-military personnel to stay away from US bases in the region. Air refueling tankers have been moved to Qatar. Basically the same set up as when the US launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The US has kept strike carriers away from the Persian Gulf. This is probably a sign that the US is planning another limited air campaign in hopes of destabilizing the regime.
Netanyahu is facing elections and wants Trump to take out Iran's regime to boost his chances. Russia has probably given Trump an implicit green light as Russia has gotten all it can out of Iran in terms of military support. Iran's economy is collapsing and will not be able to produce weapons and drones for Russia. Russia has always had a love hate relationship with Iran. They appreciate being able to project power into the Middle East through Iran, but hate Iran's funding of fundamentalist Islamic resistance groups which are a threat to Russia's predominantly Muslim regions.
Iran may be willing to play along again like they did with the prior attacks on their nuclear facilities and may agree to make some concession to the US after a short air campaign. But if the US takes the gloves off and launches wide ranging attacks on the regime and IRGC assets, Iran could retaliate by launching attacks on Saudi and Emirati oil facilities. A few missile barrages on oil terminals like Ras Tanura and Juaymah. The Saudis would retaliate by doing them same by bombing Khark Island. And if the attacks expanded to refineries, world oil prices would at least double if not triple within a few weeks.
I distinctly remember Trump promising on the campaign trail that he was going to go to war with Iran to uphold Iranian protesters’ honor. Promises made…..
“The WaPo reporter whose house was raided and phone was seized by DOJ had developed well over a thousand confidential sources inside a variety of government agencies”.
The university enrolled 6,749 international students despite the Trump administration's efforts to cut federal funding and revoke key certifications for foreign enrollment.
. And if the attacks expanded to refineries, world oil prices would at least double if not triple within a few weeks.
And this would make investment in Venezuela seem like a better prospect, but the oil companies aren't stupid. Nobody's committing to a major investment there until the environment is stable.
Trump actually has legal authority to shut off US exports of oil in the case of a price shock in order to keep US oil prices low. The US pumps more than enough oil and produces more than enough refined oil products to meet its own needs. But that would just exacerbate a spike in oil prices world wide and cause the rest of the word to fall into economic collapse even faster, eventually dragging the US with it.
Venezuela cannot make up for the loss of Persian Gulf oil production. At its peak, Venezuela produced 3.7 mil bpd. It is currently hovering around 1 mil bpd (or less) and would need 10 years of investment and reconstruction of its oil infrastructure to get another 1 mil bpd back on line.
Saudis are pumping about 10 mil bpd and Iran is at about 3-4 mil. Saudis export about 2/3rds through the Persian Gulf, the rest is through the Red Sea ports. A few tit for tat missile attacks across the Persian Gulf could easily take out 4-5 mil bpd from the oil markets. A blockade of the Straits of Hormuz would be catastrophic, but Iran's navy would quickly be blown out of the water by US air power. Even still, it would reek havoc on world oil markets and spike prices even if the interruptions were relatively short.
US oil production has gotten very efficient over the past few years with the rig count declining as production has gone up. The US could ramp up production by maybe 1-2 mil bpd over the course of 4-6 months. But that is probably the practical limit short term. An Iran war price spike would take at lease a year to work out of the markets and would probably only be brought down as a result of a world wide recession stifling demand.
The US will be at war with Iran within a week and possibly even starting this weekend. US is moving troops out of bases in the Middle East that are within Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. State department has issued travel advisories for non-military personnel to stay away from US bases in the region. Air refueling tankers have been moved to Qatar. Basically the same set up as when the US launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The US has kept strike carriers away from the Persian Gulf. This is probably a sign that the US is planning another limited air campaign in hopes of destabilizing the regime.
Netanyahu is facing elections and wants Trump to take out Iran's regime to boost his chances. Russia has probably given Trump an implicit green light as Russia has gotten all it can out of Iran in terms of military support. Iran's economy is collapsing and will not be able to produce weapons and drones for Russia. Russia has always had a love hate relationship with Iran. They appreciate being able to project power into the Middle East through Iran, but hate Iran's funding of fundamentalist Islamic resistance groups which are a threat to Russia's predominantly Muslim regions.
Iran may be willing to play along again like they did with the prior attacks on their nuclear facilities and may agree to make some concession to the US after a short air campaign. But if the US takes the gloves off and launches wide ranging attacks on the regime and IRGC assets, Iran could retaliate by launching attacks on Saudi and Emirati oil facilities. A few missile barrages on oil terminals like Ras Tanura and Juaymah. The Saudis would retaliate by doing them same by bombing Khark Island. And if the attacks expanded to refineries, world oil prices would at least double if not triple within a few weeks.
I distinctly remember Trump promising on the campaign trail that he was going to go to war with Iran to uphold Iranian protesters’ honor. Promises made…..
Trump is actually delivering what his hardcore base really wants. Unapologetic action. As long as Trump is out there blowing up stuff and making the libs mad, his base is happy. Trump does not have to worry about getting reelected and is consolidating his M#GA movement into a hardcore group of white nationalists. He just needs to have enough people who will ride or die with him to be able to go overboard and suspend elections in 2028 and hand power to one of his dufus sons. And he needs to keep everyone busy so no one notices that Trump probably conspired with Epstein to traffic girls for sex with the rich and powerful.
War with Iran is going to happen this weekend. Hopefully, it will be another limited bombing campaign and will be over in 24-48 hours with Iran launching a symbolic counter attack on empty US bases in Qatar. Anything more than that is going to have the potential to quickly spiral out of control.
. The US has kept strike carriers away from the Persian Gulf. This is probably a sign that the US is planning another limited air campaign in hopes of destabilizing the regime.
Or maybe the military is being rushed into bombing before it had a chance to get its missile carriers into place. Three missile destroyers are now en route to the Persian Gulf. War with Iran starts this weekend.
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