Let's try to look at results rationally for once, I know this is difficult.
First let's look at raw data.
Results from the Fredonia invite give times of
25:59
26:16
26:36
26:36
27:05
Results from the UB invite give times, for UofR of
25:50
26:23
26:31
26:32
26:34
UofR wins by raw data.
Now let's look at the courses, conditions of the day, and past results.
Fredonia has a slow course and times were fast this year. UB has a course known for its speed and times were also fast this year.
Fredonia had 3 teams compete, the second best of which placed 2 runners in the top 9.
There were a total of 10 teams at the UB invite including some DI and DI alumni teams.
When Fredonia and UB competed head to head at Penn State Fredonia won.
When UofR and UB competed head to head UB won.
The results aren't so clear.
Comparing big meet paces such as those from Penn State and those from UB, Fredonia wins when the conditions for Penn were obviously worse than those at UB.
Now let's compare Fredonia to RIT who ran at the SUNY Cobleskill Invite a week back the same week that Fredonia ran Penn State. Conditions were very similar. Both courses 5.2 miles.
This gives us times of
RIT
27:13
27:19
27:24
27:40
28:25
Fredonia
26:33
27:40
27:44
27:52
28:22
24-31 RIT wins.
Now let's compare everything we've learned to Plattsburgh's performances for the year. They have yet to run an 8k so we'll use their 6k results from the Oneonta meet. One reason is that we can be fairly sure the course is accurate and that it's fast, the other is that a 6k is closer representatively than a 5k dual meet against SLU. This is the same reason I give Fredonia the win over UofR in comparing results up until this point.
Plattsburgh
4:58
5:12
5:14
5:14
5:23
RIT
5:13
5:15
5:16
5:19
5:27
Fredonia
5:06
5:19
5:20
5:22
5:27
UofR
5:12
5:19
5:20
5:20
5:21
I know we're comparing oranges to apples here but pacewise it goes Platts > RIT > Fredonia > UofR.
With Plattsburgh's times from a 6k instead of an 8k or a 5.2 I'd most likely put them between RIT and Fredonia.
The other results so far are self explanatory in terms of Geneseo, Cortland, and SLU. TCNJ has not raced well yet, plain and simple. NYU looked strong in their opener with a pace spread of 2 seconds per mile.
Right now, given everything above and my reasoning for it, at this point in the season and based solely on performances thus far, I'd rank the teams as:
1) Geneseo
2) Cortland
3) NYU
4) SLU
5) RIT
6) Plattsburgh
7) Fredonia
8) UofR
9) Oneonta
10) Hamilton
I will not say these are my final predictions by a long shot, it's too early for that, but I can't understand results showing up in the Region pole in any way other than the above example, at this point in the year.