NEW Atlantic Region XC *2009* thread

Anyone who thinks that the top four in this region aren't going to stay the top four, is an individual who is building themselves up in such a manner that will most certainly lead to a load blown too soon.

Also:

Dan Ramsey ran a 25:22 at nationals. I would not consider that "bonking when it counts"

Also:

How much faster can those three run on St. Law's course? What would they have run for the 8K? How much faster than 25:08?

Bulldozer wrote:

Looking at the St.Law results I see two things;

Dan Ramsey is an animal

and

Cortland's pack ran to get their new frosh acclimated to the distance. (Which he obviously handled well)

also:

St. Law has 3-13 hanging out between 26:30 and 27:00. That is depth I've never seen before.

also:

Geneseo is lame.

Too bad runners between 26:30 and 27:00 don't really matter..............

Good thing the race happened on the 19th of September, a full month before anyone has to worry about things. These teams will all run faster before then.

Your prior post was about Geneseo being able to tear into Cortland. That's just silly.

Bulldozer wrote:

Good thing the race happened on the 19th of September, a full month before anyone has to worry about things. These teams will all run faster before then.

Your prior post was about Geneseo being able to tear into Cortland. That's just silly.

it's a big deal when slu's 4 and 5 are the 26:30's and cortland, geneseo and nyu's 4 and 5 are all sub-26:00 or low 26:00's.

"Too bad runners between 26:30 and 27:00 don't really matter.............."

You are right. At a typical regional, with good footing/ect., 26:30 isn't going to cut it, not to mention 27. It's reasonable to expect some of those runners who are known quantities to run better than that. That goes for SLU and Cortland runners. I'm thinking specifically of Greenlaw, Fox and Beaudette types. But, of course, they have to execute.

Most people are likely to notice Curry's strong run, I think it's important to point out Rakoc's solid run. Good for them.

What exactly are you implying asking how much faster they could run than ramsey? Do you think dan ramsey will beat peter kosgei at some point during this year or throughout the entirety of their lives? Are you also predicting SLU's football team to upend the Patriots? Both are highly unlikely but on the letsrun boards I guess laws of common sense and rational thinking don't apply...

Do yourself a favor and read the post before it.

Let's try to look at results rationally for once, I know this is difficult.

First let's look at raw data.

Results from the Fredonia invite give times of

25:59

26:16

26:36

26:36

27:05

Results from the UB invite give times, for UofR of

25:50

26:23

26:31

26:32

26:34

UofR wins by raw data.

Now let's look at the courses, conditions of the day, and past results.

Fredonia has a slow course and times were fast this year. UB has a course known for its speed and times were also fast this year.

Fredonia had 3 teams compete, the second best of which placed 2 runners in the top 9.

There were a total of 10 teams at the UB invite including some DI and DI alumni teams.

When Fredonia and UB competed head to head at Penn State Fredonia won.

When UofR and UB competed head to head UB won.

The results aren't so clear.

Comparing big meet paces such as those from Penn State and those from UB, Fredonia wins when the conditions for Penn were obviously worse than those at UB.

Now let's compare Fredonia to RIT who ran at the SUNY Cobleskill Invite a week back the same week that Fredonia ran Penn State. Conditions were very similar. Both courses 5.2 miles.

This gives us times of

RIT

27:13

27:19

27:24

27:40

28:25

Fredonia

26:33

27:40

27:44

27:52

28:22

24-31 RIT wins.

Now let's compare everything we've learned to Plattsburgh's performances for the year. They have yet to run an 8k so we'll use their 6k results from the Oneonta meet. One reason is that we can be fairly sure the course is accurate and that it's fast, the other is that a 6k is closer representatively than a 5k dual meet against SLU. This is the same reason I give Fredonia the win over UofR in comparing results up until this point.

Plattsburgh

4:58

5:12

5:14

5:14

5:23

RIT

5:13

5:15

5:16

5:19

5:27

Fredonia

5:06

5:19

5:20

5:22

5:27

UofR

5:12

5:19

5:20

5:20

5:21

I know we're comparing oranges to apples here but pacewise it goes Platts > RIT > Fredonia > UofR.

With Plattsburgh's times from a 6k instead of an 8k or a 5.2 I'd most likely put them between RIT and Fredonia.

The other results so far are self explanatory in terms of Geneseo, Cortland, and SLU. TCNJ has not raced well yet, plain and simple. NYU looked strong in their opener with a pace spread of 2 seconds per mile.

Right now, given everything above and my reasoning for it, at this point in the season and based solely on performances thus far, I'd rank the teams as:

1) Geneseo

2) Cortland

3) NYU

4) SLU

5) RIT

6) Plattsburgh

7) Fredonia

8) UofR

9) Oneonta

10) Hamilton

I will not say these are my final predictions by a long shot, it's too early for that, but I can't understand results showing up in the Region pole in any way other than the above example, at this point in the year.

Maybe the most convoluted analysis of September performances ever?

i agree w/ Wowzers.

wtf, it's september. some teams haven't even raced 8k's yet!

you need a girlfriend bad!

Actually I think that, though complicated, it makes sense, and at the very least is one of the most thought out predictions we've had on this thread. Thanks Sparta. I'm not sure that I agree that RIT will beat Plattsburgh, but I see your reasoning. I think we'll have to see how much of a force Hardbarger ends up being. RIT is still an unknown in my mind, I think that they could be much better than their one result showed.

And do whoever said that 26:30-27:00 guys don't matter:

2007 NYSCTC XC Championships

66 #469 Ramsey, Daniel FR St. Lawrence 5:29 27:15

2006 Regionals

42 42 Jerry Greenlaw FR Cortland 26:53.9 5:25

73 73 Tom Williams FR Fredonia 27:35.5 5:34

85 85 Jared Newell FR Fredonia 27:48.5 5:36

2006 NYSCTC

63 61 27:25 Curt Bell FR Ithaca

To name a few.

I know that you meant that those kinds of times won't matter come regionals, and that's probably true. But I just wanted to point out that SLU's 3-13 in that time range might put them up there at regionals and nationals for a few years to come. Also, of those 11 guys, 1 was a freshman, 3 were sophs, and 3 were juniors. With two juniors and a soph up front (Ramsey, Mwenda, Kiplagat when he is running), that's some solid depth to pull from.

Enough of that though, doesn't matter at this point in time. Thanks to Sparta for the thoughtful predictions. Anyone else have their own formula for predictions?

Big Will wrote:Anyone else have their own formula for predictions?

I take the teams that can run the fastest and rank them likewise.

The poll this week is hilarious. Plattsburgh girls coming in at a tie for 4th AND coming in 6th? Such depth that their A and B squads can be right there with eachother, both recognized as competitive forces. I wonder why we don't see SUNY G up on the men's side at least 3 times. Anyone?

hate to break it to ya but there is a flaw in your logic and that is that you put teams against each other as if its a duel meet. plus its xc and its extremely hard to speculate because of different courses and also its only september

umm. yeah wrote:

hate to break it to ya but there is a flaw in your logic and that is that you put teams against each other as if its a duel meet.

"dual meet"

ok whatever personally i think they both can be applied, but as such it really does not even matter. it's not as bad

as some of the posters on letsrun.

I think Phil Jennings just forgot to type cortland into 6th where plattsburgh was last week after he put plattsburgh into 4th.

What a fall from grace, deemed the best in the region in the preseason national poll now out of the top 5 in the region in a matter of weeks.

anybody else tcnj should be out of top 10 on mens side?

there last result was pathetic. The same goes for ithaca.

and teams like rit should be ranked.