D1 Women’s XC Championship Simulation Countdown

Glad you found out the issue and are planning a fix! Is there a quick way to simulate the upcoming nationals? When I click “start a simulation”, choose “ncaa nationals (women)”, there are forty teams shown in the simulation instead of the already announced 32 team field. Do I have to create a customized race to have this fixed? Thanks again for all the wisdom and hard work behind creating this tool.

Thanks for looking.

I never am belittling past runners.

Skieresz, Simpson, Flanagan, Touhy, Valby, OSullivan, Rhines, Huber etc will remain legends. You can only beat and compete with the competition in your own era.

It's great for all of women's sports to see new stars come along. The current popularity of high school girls xc and ncaa was built on the back of all the former standouts.

It is still amazing how fast the xc pack is running now. Even places 20-40 are at former course record paces.

Looking forward to Saturday. Fun when no dominant favorite.

True. Jane will run sub 18. Lemngole can run 18:30 but will still be 30 seconds behind Jane.

Are you planning to be there and watch it in person?

Whether there are 40 or 32 teams in the simulation, that difference will likely be inconsequential to the top 10 results.

I usually try to create a link with the full nationals field and put it on the homepage. I’m traveling right now so I’m a bit behind. Will try to get that done tomorrow or Tuesday. If someone else does it earlier please post it!

Have we ever seen a legitimate sub-18? That would be pretty insane, no?
(Not counting Parker Valby’s run from a few years ago as that was not full 6k.)

IMO, there is no way she run’s sub 18. It’s unclear if the golf course was short when Valby did it.

How do you know it wasn’t a full 6k?

One possible clue is that LACCTiC only awarded Valby a 15:10 TiC for that performance. If she actually had strung together six consecutive 3min k’s, then she should have been awarded at least a 15:00 TiC.

Doris and Hilda woulda had to split 15:00 at the 5k point which they didn't achieve on the track til 2025.

pretty unlikely they ran that on a XC course before a track.

Here are the fastest finishing times in NCAA history:

1
2023
1
Virginia
18:55.2
Parker Valby
Florida
2
2023
2
Virginia
19:05.7
Doris Lemngole
Alabama
3
2023
3
Virginia
19:10.0
Olivia Markezich
Notre Dame
4
2017
1
Louisville
19:19.5
Ednah Kurgat
New Mexico
5
2024
1
Wisconsin
19:21.0
Doris Lemngole
Alabama
6
2023
4
Virginia
19:22.1
Hilda Olemomoi
Alabama
7
2023
5
Virginia
19:23.0
Katelyn Tuohy
NC State
8
2021
1
Florida St.
19:25.4
Whittni Orton
BYU
9
2023
6
Virginia
19:26.9
Flomena Asekol
Florida
10
2017
2
Louisville
19:27.0
Amy-Eloise Neale
Washington
11
2023
7
Virginia
19:27.5
Billah Jepkirui
Oklahoma State
12
2022
1
Oklahoma State
19:27.7
Katelyn Tuohy
NC State
13
2024
2
Wisconsin
19:27.8
Pamela Kosgei
New Mexico
14
2012
1
Louisville
19:27.9
Betsy Saina
Iowa St.
15
2008
1
Indiana St.
19:28.1
Sally Kipyego
Texas Tech
16
2023
8
Virginia
19:28.4
Chloe Scrimgeour
Georgetown
T-17
2017
3
Louisville
19:28.6
Charlotte Taylor
San Francisco
T-17
2015
1
Louisville
19:28.6
Molly Seidel
Notre Dame
T-17
2012
2
Louisville
19:28.6
Abbey D'Agostina
Dartmouth
T-17
2012
2
Louisville
19:28.6
Jordan Hasay
Oregon
21
2024
3
Wisconsin
19:28.7
Hilda Olemomoi
Florida
22
2021
2
Florida St.
19:29.3
Mercy Chelangat
Alabama
23
2021
3
Florida St.
19:29.5
Ceili McCabe
West Virginia
24
2021
4
Florida St.
19:29.8
Cailie Logue
Iowa St.
25
2023
9
Virginia
19:29.9
Amina Maatoug
Duke
26
2003
1
UNI
19:30.4
Shalane Flanagan
North Carolina
27
2023
10
Virginia
19:30.8
Maia Ramsden
Harvard
T-28
2007
1
Indiana St.
19:30.9
Sally Kipyego
Texas Tech
T-28
2022
2
Oklahoma State
19:30.9
Parker Valby
Florida

With the way this year has gone, it’s fairly safe to say we’ll likely see that record broken by a few women next weekend.

I have an announcement:

“There is a new top team in town as NC State dethrones BYU for the first time this season. BYU had reigned atop the National Coaches’ Poll for six consecutive weeks, including the preseason.
…
BYU finds itself at the national number two spot for the first time since Week 3 of 2024.”

ustfccca.org

2025 NCAA DI Women’s Cross Country National Coaches’ Poll – Week 6

USTFCCCA Communications

2025 NCAA DI Women’s Cross Country National Coaches’ Poll – Week 6

Open link

Any poll that for no reason drops Oregon out of the top 5 is suspect.

Or did Oregon’s top 5 all get stress fractures and only the poll voters know?

lol, you know this better than those coaches? 😆

I agree, Oregon should contend for the podium, and Notre Dame has a good shot for 4th, which would put Florida on the outside looking in.

The latest LACCTiC simulation has Notre Dame and Florida locked in a virtual tie, too close to call:

1 NC State (94 - 131) 97%
2 BYU (2 - 3) (153 - 200) 2%
3 Oregon (2 - 3) (164 - 219) 1%
4 Notre Dame (4 - 6) (230 - 297) 0%
5 Florida (4 - 6) (235 - 297) 0%

Someone tell Lacctic that there’s at least a 10% chance of any given team imploding. There is no such thing as 97% chance of winning in d1 XC.

They just way overvalued the Oregon performance at West regional, not noticing that Oregon was just in 'survive and advance' mode.

Oregon still top 3 and threat to win.