California HS XC 2023 CIF

1600 times (especially on the track) are not the best predictors for 5k performances on the grass

Torrey Pines - third at Hole in the wall behind two very strong teams - Coeur D’Alene ID and Jesuit OR.

Wait…there’s also a Jesuit school in CA that is continuing to improve.

Oh…and guess what! There is also a Jesuit school in Louisiana that was once ranked ahead of Newbury Park last year on the milesplit rankings

Clovis Invitational Champ race, held his own (leading) for the first mile but slowed some in the hills and kick. Pretty warm and dry today, maybe not too hydrated. Expecting a lot better this season :P

Considering that Campolindo does this every year, it's possible to compare how their runners did from year to year. Clearly Volkmer running 4:54 is a massive improvement over last year at the same meet.

Californians are used to racing and training in warming temperatures. It shouldn't effect race performance. 55 degrees 75 degrees no difference. It is when temperatures hit 80 it's questionable, 85-90 it will effect performances. I would say the Clovis Invitational is a good metric for previous Woodward park courses. As of right now based off the times run at woodward park:

- Dana Hills / Great Oak times at Woodward park show that would have been a top 5 team the majority of years. However, this year is insane so both top 5-10 team. Ventura bombed, that's what happens when you only are 5 deep.

- Anthony Fast Horse is the real deal. 14:32. But he is not faster than Lex/Leo/German/Colin. Leo ran 14:25. Leo ran 14:27. Fernandez ran 14:24.

- Anyone who can run under 14:35 this course is on another level. They should be considered the favorite to win nxn, unless there is also another runner that is insane. To put it in perspective, Aaron Sahlman times on this course have been as follows: 14:43, 14:46, 14:52, 14:41. And yes, these were all very hard efforts by him. His national performances were solid too. 6th in 2021 with a 14:14 5k, 1st in 2022 with the nxn course record.

- Emmanuel Perez / Evan Noonan < 14:42, 14:44. They can be contenders to win the nxn title. But I would put them in the box of 7th-8th fastest runners in the nation.

- San Clemente / Oakdale are good teams. They can place top 10 at NXN on a good day. Based off this result they are more likely to be 12-15th at NXN. (Assuming they get a bid to go)

We will see how much California teams can improve from this. Last year, the teams showed significant improvement from clovis to woodward park. The top 3 teams last year ran team times better than the times ran at Clovis this year. We will see which teams are able to improve their fitness and racing.

On the boys side, California is stronger individually than team wise.

Yes, it is too early for some, but for those curious about how California teams look for next year compared to other top teams, I generated a list. I know teams can emerge, but they don't come from nowhere, they would already be showing some kind of base.
Here is my best attempt at collecting various data on teams for races that Tully has speed rated. Note for non-Cal teams, I am pretty certain I have missed a few really good teams, but my aim wasn't to get every team, just to get some of the better examples.
Non-Cal teams *average speed ratings for returning runners*. There is big group of teams between 165-170 that I am not going to try and produce. It's a big country.
Niwot 177.0
Southlake Carrol 176.4
Herriman 175.4
Belen Jesuit Preparatory School 175.2
Austin Vandegrift 172.4
Jesuit OR 171.8
Coeur d'Alene 170.8
Ridgefield 168.8
Rocky Mountain 168.4
California teams (All the teams I could find with an average over 150, but I could have missed some)
Great Oak (SS) 170.2
Martin Luther King 168.6
Buchanan 168.2
JSerra 165.8
Arnold O. Beckman (SS) 164.8
Mira Costa (SS) 162.2
Glendora 162.0
Matilda Torress 160.4
Tesoro 160.0
Oaks Christian (SS) 160.0
Bellarmine College Prep (CC) 159.8
Hart 158.8
Woodbridge 158.6
Oak Park 157.4
Newbury Park (SS) 155.8
West Ranch 153.8
Santiago Corona (SS) 153.8
Dana Hills (SS) 153.0
Dougherty Valley 153.0
Trabuco Hills (SS) 152.4
Vacaville 151.4
Clovis East 151.2
Ayala 150.4

I think Jesuit CA should be in this list. They return 4 of their 5 from Clovis, and also a 16:51 freshman who ran in a non-Championship race

A little surprised to see Newbury Park this high for next year’s teams. Not saying that they shouldn’t be up here but this is interesting.

They lost 5 seniors from last year and the team plunged. This year they have 5 varsity seniors again.

Next year they will be younger. Unless someone transfers in, I think they will have 3 varsity seniors at the most.

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Sorry, incomplete there. Anyway, the schedule still shows the D3-5 Sweepstakes as being in the afternoon on Friday. Does anyone know if Mt SAC Sweepstakes Friday will be in the morning this year?

Their girls team took second at Clovis though, beating Buchanan

Good catch, I forgot to copy Jesuit over to my main list from the list Clovis.
Jesuit 161.6

This is the first race for them that has been speed rated, which makes it a little more impressive. Many of the other teams also ran Woodbridge, which about half the best times come from.

I should clarify the scale of the numbers, so it has more context. At Clovis, the speed rating is 1 point = 3 secs. So 10 points is 30 seconds, which would be a lot of distance between two #3 runners for instance. Great Oak at 170.2 is *30 seconds faster per runner* than a team with average of 160. And since Great Oak will also improve, making up that much time is a tough task.

The counterpoint to that is there isn't much data to go on yet. Some runners have not had a good effort on a race that was speed rated, and in a few cases it is just one race. But most teams were at Woodbridge and Clovis, and since this list takes the best rating of each individual runner, a bad race wouldn't count against them.

This is making no statement of truth, just what the available data as of 10/7 produces.

I know you were not trying to make an exhaustive list, but just noting that this list discounts NorCal teams (Crystal Springs, Granada, De La Sal...) who wouldn't be sending any non-varsity runners down to Orange Country or even to Clovis. That might be excluding them due to lack of data.

That is definitely true. This list is biased towards teams that ran either large squads at both Woodbridge or Clovis, or their top 5 non-seniors are on their travel teams. In Granada's case, Tully has only speed rated up to their 4th non-senior, but for kicks I just looked up their 5th runner at Woodbridge and did the calculation, and resulted in a team time of 149.6.

Further, there are very good runners like Trey Caldwell who haven't run a race that has been speed rated yet, so there could be some good teams lurking around. San Diego county runners can have the same issue.

Trey Caldwell looked great running a 14:55 at Crystal Springs (2.95 miles) this past weekend. It was hot with unrelenting sun out there, on a very tough course. Put him on a faster course with cooler temps, I bet he'll crank a great time.

depends on how hot it was?

was it 75 hot? or 85 hot?

It was 78 degrees during the Championship Varsity race at Serra Crystal Springs Invite.